The United States is intensifying efforts to challenge China’s long-standing dominance of Africa’s critical minerals sector, using offtake agreements and state-backed financing rather than direct mine ownership to secure supplies of copper, cobalt and other strategic metals.
Washington’s near-term focus is on Zambia, Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to diplomats, executives and analysts ahead of this week’s Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The DRC is central to the strategy, accounting for more than 70% of global cobalt supply and producing around 3.3 million metric tons of copper in 2024.
Rather than deploying U.S. operators into politically and operationally risky environments, the strategy relies on trading structures that steer African output into U.S.-aligned supply chains still dominated by Chinese refiners. These include offtake deals with commodity traders such as Mercuria and arrangements with Congo’s state miner Gécamines.
Offtake agreements allow countries or companies to secure rights to a portion of mine output in exchange for financing or other forms of support.
“We’re already seeing U.S. engagement reshape mineral flows out of Africa,” said Thomas Scurfield, a senior analyst at the Natural Resource Governance Institute, adding that Washington was backing its rhetoric with funding, even as questions remain over whether it can match China’s scale and speed.
Both the U.S. and China are expected to seek new commitments at the Indaba, with Washington sounding out officials on its emerging minerals bloc.
Shifting Trade Flows
A key development involves Gécamines, which is preparing to ship around 100,000 tons of copper from its Tenke Fungurume allocation to U.S. buyers this year. The move follows a 2023 renegotiation with China’s CMOC that expanded the Congolese miner’s marketing rights.
U.S. engagement extends beyond copper. Analysts say China’s cobalt supply chain is increasingly exposed as Congo’s export restrictions intersect with growing U.S.–DRC cooperation.
Elsewhere, London-based Pensana has abandoned plans for a rare earths refinery in Britain to process material from its Angolan mine, shifting the project to the United States after citing stronger incentives and price guarantees.
“This is the U.S. deploying financial firepower rather than industrial presence,” said Vincent Rouget of Control Risks, noting that Washington can redirect Congolese copper to American buyers without assuming the political risks of operating mines.
Despite these moves, Chinese companies retain control of many of Congo’s largest copper and cobalt assets, including Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula, and have sent the bulk of output to China for refining for more than a decade.
Congo is also emerging as a supplier of zinc, germanium and gallium, with new offtake arrangements positioning Gécamines as a leading zinc exporter and a key buyer of germanium and gallium concentrates. The company has recently recorded its first export of locally processed germanium.
China Versus the West
The divergence between Chinese and Western approaches remains stark.
KoBold Metals has secured exploration rights across more than 3,000 square kilometers in Congo’s lithium and copper belt but has said it will not advance projects entangled in legal disputes, citing governance standards. Chinese operators, by contrast, have continued work in contested areas, reinforcing their speed-to-market advantage.
At Manono, one of the world’s largest undeveloped lithium deposits, KoBold says it will not proceed until ownership disputes are resolved, even as China’s Zijin advances infrastructure on the northern block. KoBold says production could begin within three years if it secures the southern block cleanly.
In Guinea, China-backed Winning Consortium Simandou pressed ahead with rail and port construction at the Simandou iron ore project despite ownership disputes, effectively compelling Rio Tinto to align with the project’s development timeline.
Analysis
The U.S. push into African minerals marks a tactical shift rather than a direct confrontation with China’s mining footprint. By prioritising offtake agreements and financial guarantees, Washington is seeking to influence mineral flows without replicating China’s capital-intensive, asset-heavy model.
This approach reduces political and operational exposure but also limits control. While the strategy may secure near-term supply for U.S. buyers, it remains dependent on infrastructure and refining capacity largely shaped by Chinese investment over the past decade.
China’s willingness to operate in disputed or high-risk environments continues to deliver a structural advantage, allowing faster project development and earlier access to output. Western firms’ emphasis on governance and legal clarity, while politically palatable, slows deployment and risks ceding ground in contested regions.
As ministers and executives gather in Cape Town, the contrast between China’s industrial presence and America’s financial leverage will be central to negotiations. The Indaba is likely to test whether Washington’s strategy can scale beyond selective offtake wins or whether China’s entrenched position in Africa’s mineral ecosystem remains largely intact.
With information from Reuters.
