Australia’s anti-immigration firebrand Senator Pauline Hanson is experiencing a striking resurgence, with her One Nation party climbing to polling levels not seen since the late 1990s. While her rise echoes global hard-line rhetoric including U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on border control analysts say Hanson’s momentum is rooted firmly in domestic frustrations.
Global Winds, Local Fuel
One Nation’s polling surge comes as Washington presses a tougher line on migration, directing U.S. diplomatic missions, including in Australia, to gather data on migrant-linked crime. Yet Australian analysts and party insiders emphasise that Hanson’s revival is driven less by Trump’s messaging and more by local pressures: cost-of-living strain, housing shortages, and record-high migration inflows.
A Political Landscape in Flux
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor government, buoyed by a decisive 2025 win, remains ahead in national polls. In contrast, the conservative Liberal Party is at a historic low, creating an opening for right-wing voters to shift toward One Nation.
Hanson’s team frames her as a long-standing voice on migration before the issue entered the mainstream. “Pauline was the original Trump,” her chief of staff James Ashby told Reuters, arguing the public is “catching up” to her warnings on mass migration.
Her polarising political style remains undimmed. Hanson made international headlines after wearing a burka into parliament and was suspended for a week an act both condemned and celebrated among her base.
Polling Momentum and Pressure on the Right
Although One Nation holds only four seats in the 76-member Senate, recent polling suggests room for significant gains by 2028. A Roy Morgan survey places the party at 14% its highest since 1998. The trend is rattling the centre-right coalition, already weakened by leadership losses and internal divisions.
Barnaby Joyce’s departure from the National Party and openness to joining One Nation underscores the pressure inside conservative ranks. In response, Liberal officials say the party will unveil a policy to “slow” migration before Christmas.
Strategic Evolution: From Fringe to Influence
Pollster Gary Morgan says One Nation is well-positioned to secure greater influence in the Senate due to Australia’s preferential voting system. However, unlike Britain’s Reform UK, the party is unlikely to win lower house seats in significant numbers.
One Nation’s focus for the next election is precisely that: breaking into the lower house. To expand its reach, Ashby has shifted the party’s communication strategy away from traditional media toward direct social-media engagement particularly through a satirical animated series mocking “woke” issues. The series, costing A$300,000, has reportedly garnered 50 million views.
The party plans to build on this success with an animated feature aimed at driving turnout for Hanson’s town hall events and boosting fundraising.
Immigration Anxiety Rising Nationally
A recent Australian Election Study report shows voter concern over immigration doubled to a record high 6% in 2025, fuelled by post-pandemic population spikes and mounting pressure on housing and infrastructure.
Former Howard-era strategist Arthur Sinodinos notes that conservative hardening on migration in 2001 successfully undercut One Nation suggesting history may repeat if the Liberal Party recalibrates again. But he cautions that policy must be economically grounded, warning that scapegoating migrants risks alienating multicultural constituencies.
Current Liberal leader Sussan Ley has already begun rejecting claims that infrastructure strain is caused by migrants, attempting to hold the political centre.
Australia’s net migration surged to 739,000 in 2023 and nearly 600,000 in 2024 as international students and temporary workers returned post-COVID. Labor ministers say levels are already trending lower and must continue to fall.
A Multicultural Nation at a Crossroads
Immigration debates resonate deeply in Australia, a country where nearly half of residents are either migrants or children of migrants. Political parties are aware that rhetoric can mobilise but also divide voters.
Analysis
Hanson’s resurgence reflects a familiar global pattern: when economic anxieties spike—rents rise, wages stagnate, housing becomes unreachable migration becomes the easiest political lightning rod. But what makes Australia’s case unique is how deeply multicultural identity is woven into daily life. That means the migration debate triggers not just policy arguments, but questions of social cohesion and belonging.
Hanson thrives in periods of uncertainty because she offers simple answers to complex structural issues. However, history shows that when mainstream parties adopt a firmer but balanced migration stance, One Nation’s support tends to plateau.
Ultimately, her rise signals more about voter frustration with major parties than an ideological shift toward extremism. The real test will be whether the Liberals can rebuild a coherent centre-right identity and whether Labor can ease cost pressures before Hanson’s message fills the vacuum further.
With information from Reuters.
