During the open school session organized by the city of Yaroslavl, the northeastof Moscow school, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the students, “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world”.
Since 2022, the battlefield in Ukrainian territory has been where both sides have rapidly integrated AI into their weapon systems, particularly in drone warfare. With a numerically superior adversary, Ukrainian forces have turned to AI-powered drones for precision strikes and intelligence gathering. These systems utilize machine learning algorithms to identify and target Russian positions autonomously, mostly with precision and efficiency. For example, AI-driven first-person view drones have become common on the battlefield, which nobody knew before the war began in February 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his recent UNGA speech, warned of an escalating AI-driven arms race, highlighting how drones equipped with infrared-guided missiles have downed Russian fighter jets. In 2024 alone, Ukraine has produced over 1.5 million drones. These drones use computer vision to navigate terrain, evade defenses, and select targets based on pre-programmed criteria, which cause about 70-80% of casualties on the battlefield.
On the Russian side, the story is similar but scaled up. Moscow’s forces deploy AI for the objective of ISR and processing vast amounts of data from satellites and ground sensors to pinpoint Ukrainian movements by using FPV drones. Autonomous drones, some capable of independent target selection, have been used to devastating effect. American magazine Politico reported that, in April 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for a ‘significant ramp-up in drone manufacturing.’ Ukraine, too, aims to multiply its production. By mid-2025, Russia was producing about 1.5 million FPV drones. The use of drones teaches the military strategist that the quality and quantity of military weapons systems, especially the drones, matter a lot on the battlefield.
The war in Ukraine exposes the new realities of battlefield situations and complexities. It shows that AI exponentially enhances targeting accuracy, reduces collateral damage, and allows for real-time adaptation to countermeasures. The war has presented an image of a new kind of ‘low-cost, high-end’ warfare where the great militaries do not have much leverage until they have a massive industrial capacity to produce those weapons. Forbes has reported that the drone manufacturing targets of the Ukrainian government for 2025 are over 4 million.
Now, using the same reasoning and realities in a potential US-China confrontation. The two superpowers are locked in a high-stakes great power competition, turbocharged by billions of dollars in AI investments and a race to dominate data infrastructure and the future battlefield. According to Human Centered Artificial Intelligence of Stanford University, as of 2025, the US leads in private AI investment with about $109.1 billion into the sector in 2024 alone, nearly 12 times China’s $9.3 billion. From 2013 to 2025, US private investments have reached $471 billion, surpassing China’s total investment. However, Beijing is closing the gap with aggressive state-backed funding. China plans to deploy $98 billion in AI investments this year, including $56 billion from government sources, amid escalating tech rivalry with the US. According to American advisory firm Gartner, AI spending is forecasted to hit $1.5 trillion in 2025, accounting for nearly half of key investments in the US.
This hard financial power often translates directly into its operational capability through infrastructure building. The case of the data centers, the backbone of AI training and deployment, is a critical capability metric. The US has about 5,426 data centers as of March 2025, while China has 449 facilities. The superpowers account for 70% of the world’s 122.2 gigawatts (GW) of installed data center capacity as of 2024, with projections for explosive growth to meet AI demands. According to Boston Consulting Group, by 2028, global data center power demand could reach 130 GW, mainly driven by US and Chinese expansions. These centers are not just servers but enablers for training sophisticated AI models that power everything from predictive analytics to autonomous weapons.
Great speculation is that both nations are massively investing in AI-driven military hardware. For example, the US Pentagon’s Replicator program’s primary objective is to deploy thousands of AI-driven drones by August 2025. However, it has faced delays due to a lack of critical minerals and hard-end know-how. Meanwhile, China showcased AI-powered drones, hypersonic missiles, and fighter jets in its September 3 military parade. Beijing’s hybrid systems, like the IAI Harop drone-missile, combine their autonomy with devastating impact. In terms of the gap between the two superpowers, military analysts warn that China may be months ahead in some AI weapon developments, turning the rivalry into a zero-sum game.
What if this escalates to open conflict? The most immediate and mainstream flashpoint is Taiwan, where AI could dominate the battlefield. In a near-future scenario, say, by 2027, China might attempt a blockade or invasion (as reported by the media), leveraging AI for cyber intrusions, unmanned swarms, and decision-making acceleration. It seems that Chinese AI-drone platforms can target and jam Taiwan’s air defenses through AI-coordinated attacks. Responding under mutual defense commitments, US forces could deploy autonomous arsenals like Replicator drones to counter the assault. AI would speed up command loops, predicting enemy moves and optimizing logistics, but it risks escalation: a misidentified target could spark nuclear tensions.
Beyond Taiwan, other issues could ignite the powder keg. Territorial disputes over islands and resources might see AI-driven naval confrontations in the South China Sea. Among the possible scenarios of using AI-driven battlefields are:China uses AI-boosted submarines and drones to enforce claims, prompting US freedom-of-navigation operations with autonomous countermeasures. This could devolve into a hybrid war, combining cyberattacks on critical infrastructure with physical strikes. Economic fallout would be immense, disrupting global supply chains.
In another scenario, conflict could arise in space over satellites. Both nations rely on orbital assets for AI data feeds; a 2030 cyber-AI assault on US GPS systems by China could blind American forces, leading to retaliatory strikes on Chinese satellites. AI would automate defenses, potentially creating a ‘doomsday machine’ in which algorithms dictate escalation thresholds.
To add another scenario, an AI-fueled proxy war could occur in Africa or Southeast Asia, where US and Chinese-backed forces test autonomous weapons in resource grabs. By 2030, AI investments could reach trillions, enabling swarms of inexpensive, disposable drones that could overwhelm human-operated defenses, similar to the situation in Ukraine but on a larger scale.
These scenarios are not alarmist; they are plausible extrapolations from existing trends. The US-China AI race mirrors the post-WWII Cold War’s nuclear arms buildup, albeit with faster evolution and less predictability. However, the great power competition is not just about who invests more or builds more data centers; it’s about using the AI-driven military systems on the battlefield. As investments rise and new modern weapons evolve with cutting-edge lethal weaponry, will the US maintain its edge, or will China surge ahead? The battlefield of tomorrow depends on today’s investment in skilled manpower and AI-driven weapons systems.
