Very serious developments are unfolding at Azerbaijan’s doorstep as its neighbor, Iran, faces escalating tensions with Israel, marking a new phase of open confrontation between the two nations. Strikes began early on June 13, with Israel targeting key Iranian nuclear facilities, military targets including top commanders, and energy sites such as the South Pars gas field. Eighteen hours later, Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles and rockets, starting the exchange of strikes that has continued for days with no end in sight. The death toll from the strikes has been severe, with Iran’s health ministry reporting that 224 people have been killed since Israel’s attack began, along with over 1,200 hospitalized. Meanwhile, at least 24 people have been killed in Israel from Iranian missile attacks, with dozens more wounded. As tensions reach boiling point, regional countries are holding their breath and watching developments closely.
Against this backdrop, although not a party to this conflict, Azerbaijan finds itself positioned in the middle of events, watching with deep concern. Baku’s strategic location adjacent to Iran means that any escalation of conflict near its borders carries significant risks, making Azerbaijan’s reaction of strategic importance to the course of events. As a neighboring country, it not only shares borders with Iran but also has significant ethnic ties, with millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Iranian territory. Thus, on the public dimension, Azerbaijani citizens are witnessing these developments firsthand and extending their compassion to their ethnic brethren on the other side of the Aras River. The proximity of the conflict became starkly apparent on the night of June 13, when Azerbaijani people in the Nakhchivan enclave were stunned by the sight of Israeli rockets passing through the skies over the Julfa district. The human cost of this conflict resonates particularly strongly among Azerbaijan’s population, given the shared cultural and ethnic ties across the border. It is also worth noting that among the targets struck were multiple areas in Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province, including Bostan Abad, Maragheh, and Tabriz, the provincial capital where the majority of the population consists of ethnic Azerbaijanis.
It’s a no-brainer to think that any nation wouldn’t be happy disposing of nuclear weapons at its borders. Although Azerbaijan and Iran generally enjoy friendly relations, it is no secret that Iran is wary of Azerbaijan, with some even describing this as viewing it as an existential threat. This apprehension stems from Tehran’s concerns about potential ethnic nationalist sentiments among its substantial Azerbaijani minority population, compounded by Azerbaijan’s close strategic partnership with Israel.
The period following Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day war marked a turning point that opened new avenues for Türkiye’s influence to expand throughout the region, subsequently straining diplomatic ties between the two neighboring nations. Relations reached a particularly low point when Azerbaijan evacuated its consulate following an armed attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran in January 2023, with Baku demanding a transparent investigation into the incident.
However, relations have been put back on track with recent contacts between the two countries, which have yielded pledges to collaborate on various regional projects, with the positive momentum culminating in President Pezeshkian’s official visit to Azerbaijan. Notably, Pezeshkian’s performance of a poem about the separation of Azerbaijani people during this visit came as a symbolic gesture, with some observers reading between the lines for deeper meaning.
Official Baku’s response
Given this delicate context, Azerbaijan is walking a tightrope to avoid hurting recent Iran-Azerbaijan normalization dynamism. On June 13, Azerbaijan issued a carefully worded statement, “deeply concerned by the military operation carried out by the State of Israel against the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” The statement continued by condemning the violence with a neutral tone, notably without pointing fingers at any of the conflicting parties while calling for a diplomatic solution. Later that day, Baku also moved swiftly to counter allegations regarding “Azerbaijan’s recruitment of ethnic Azerbaijanis as agents”—as ”the country faces pressure on its relations with Israel being scrutinized as being one with a Muslim-majority population. On June 14, in a phone conversation between Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Bayramov and his Iranian counterpart Aragchi, Azerbaijan delivered condolences to the suffering people, including military figures, while expressing concerns over the security of nuclear facilities. Most importantly, what grabbed headlines and stood as the most significant message during this crisis was Azerbaijan’s firm declaration that it would not allow any country to use its territory to strike a third party. This assurance was deemed crucial to draw a clear line regarding the Israel-Iran tensions, as Baku could potentially be viewed as a staging ground for either side’s operations. Indeed, Tehran’s past remarks, according to some sources, suggest the Iranian establishment has kept the option of targeting Azerbaijan open and may be inclined toward that course of action. This is why Azerbaijan is distancing itself and rebutting allegations to avoid becoming entangled in a blame game, particularly given the likelihood of increased paranoia within Iranian decision-making circles following the Israeli attacks that caught them off guard.
With an eye on Türkiye
With careful attention to its relationship with Türkiye, Ankara and Baku have maintained close communication channels to coordinate on matters of mutual concern. The two countries held foreign minister-level telephone discussions on the developing crisis, demonstrating their commitment to consultation and understanding on June 14th.
Amidst deep-down concerns that Türkiye might be next, Ankara is turning to diplomatic exchanges to cross-read possible scenarios to de-escalate. Remarkably, in this twist of sprawling geopolitical realities, Baku and Ankara found themselves facing different sets of challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the new power dynamics in post-Assad Syria have opened risks for a Türkiye-Israel confrontation. On the other hand, Israeli elites are voicing Azerbaijan’s potential role as a regional security anchor and the benefits of its candidacy for the expansion of the Abraham Accords. For the former, Baku was not a passive observer in this regard—in efforts to prevent conflict in Syria, Baku hosted a meeting between Turkish and Israeli delegations this April. Admittedly, Azerbaijan has also engaged in quiet diplomatic mediation between the two countries in previous years.
Apart from these considerations, one of the important cornerstones of the synergy between these two nations is undoubtedly their public ties. The public understanding of unfolding events deserves careful attention, particularly the information circulation through social media, which represents an interesting dynamic between Azerbaijani and Turkish communities. This is especially relevant given that some people in Türkiye are having a difficult time understanding Azerbaijan’s position on the Palestine issue. Consequently, efforts have been made to deliver a more nuanced understanding of this matter. For example, recently in a closed meeting, Hikmet Hajiyev directly addressed Turkish journalists to clarify Azerbaijan’s sensitivities. It comes as no surprise that the Turkic people living in Iranian territory are close to the heart of the Turkish population—the Tabriz hashtag appeared on Turkey’s X platform trending list, demonstrating its emotional resonance among Turkish audiences. These nuances regarding how each country’s image is perceived by their respective publics are deemed of utmost importance and are clearly capturing the attention of political circles in both Ankara and Baku.
Conclusion
When placing Azerbaijan’s stance on the scale of real-world responses to recent Iran-Israel tensions from world capitals, it emerges as notably balanced. On one end of the spectrum, some European countries express support for Israel’s right to self-defense, while on the other end, Azerbaijan’s allies like Türkiye and Pakistan opt for strong language to condemn Israel’s aggression. This nuanced positioning is crucial for Azerbaijan to maintain its firm footing in regional security matters and may serve to sharpen its positive regional image. The country has already demonstrated its capacity for responsible regional leadership by providing humanitarian corridors and facilitating the evacuation of foreign citizens from Iran, adding significant diplomatic capital to its international profile. Azerbaijan is striving to hold the banner of stabilizer and will chart its course accordingly, creating opportunities for Baku to elevate its strategic place in regional affairs. The coming days will reveal the real damages, especially concerning potential damage to energy infrastructure, which may increase the allure of Azerbaijan’s energy reserves and further enhance its strategic importance in the region.
