Undoubtedly, Trump’s “tariffs” shock wave is being viewed as the key driving factor behind the March 2025 trilateral ministerial gathering of China, Japan, and South Korea in Seoul, notably the first such meeting after a six-year hiatus. Perhaps a coincidence, or maybe not, the last time the trilateral meeting was held in Beijing in 2019 – amid high trade tensions between the U.S. and China caused due to Trump initiating a “tariff war” on the Chinese exports into America. Interestingly, both in terms of trade and geopolitics, scholars in China claim the trilateral meeting with the ultimate aim of a free trade agreement between Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul is long due policy “course correction” for both Japan and the ROK.
In contrast, strategic affairs experts and scholars in the West (especially the U.S.) have been alarmed that the Asia-Pacific region is hardest hit by President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs offensive. And that with tariffs, Trump is ceding the region and particularly Washington’s two large economic and security allies in East Asia – Japan and South Korea – to Beijing. While in both Japan and South Korea, like in China, the emerging opinion among scholars and experts is fast turning in favor of increasing cooperation in the field of economy and trade, especially as the countries feel common pressure due to the tariffs.
Writing for the New York Times, James Firetree, a London-based geopolitical analyst, has observed a few days ago, “Highly trade-dependent developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand face the highest tariffs imposed by Trump. He has threatened lower but severe penalties on wealthy trade partners – Japan and South Korea – like Taiwan, key geopolitical allies of the United States in the region.” This misguided, inept assault on trade could leave a vacuum which could be filled in by China, Firetree further added.
Popular Chinese View: ‘Good ties between China, Japan, and ROK is a ridiculous idea’
The dominant Chinese view on China’s “good” relations with Japan and South Korea, as reflected on the country’s social media and in the letter-to-editor comments in the mainstream print media, is “stop fantasizing, it’s never going to happen.” In guancha.com, a popular and widely read digital newspaper among China’s urban intelligentsia, a comment in the “hottest” reader comments category reacted to a well-known op-ed columnist’s recent commentary on China-Japan-South Korea seeking closer relationship as a countermeasure to Trump’s tariff “stick,” saying “As long as China does not act like the boss, it should not have too high expectations on Japan and South Korea…”
Elsewhere, similar and at times far more extreme reactions were noticed in the reader’s columns. “The China-Japan-South Korea free trade area (FTA) negotiations have been going on for over a decade. Now, Trump 2.0 has opened a new window of opportunity. The three-country FTA is an absolutely major event and although it is difficult to achieve it overnight, it’s also a good thing to be able to go further. If China-Japan-ROK can succeed in realizing the FTA, then together with RCEP they will form the absolute global supply chain center of East Asia-ASEAN. Thus, reducing the region’s dependence on the United States and bringing about a gradual change in the political ecology,” a reader wrote.
Moreover, a large majority of people in China reckon, any talk of Japan and South Korea willingly partnering with China to form FTA is but day-dreaming. For, they say, as long as the peoples of these three countries are unable to bury their historical and territorial differences, it is foolish to expect “Japan and South Korea to wake up.” Besides, many in China also hold the view that it is unrealistic for China to believe that Japan and South Korea are “free” and “independent” nations. A reader disdainfully lamented that “Japan and South Korea are “semi-colonies” of the United States.
Diverse Scholarly Perspectives
Unlike a dominant view among netizens and newspaper readers that perceives as ridiculous any idea of the Northeast Asian FTA, scholars and experts hold divergent views on the issue – ranging from the “need of the hour” at one end of the spectrum to newfound optimism for the trilateral cooperation at the other end of the spectrum. While some scholars in China are raising questions such as i) Will Trump “onslaught” push a weak Ishiba Shigeru government in Tokyo and unstable regime in Seoul under Prime Minister Han Deok-soo towards choosing Beijing over Washington; ii) How can the three sets of bilateral relations between China and Japan, Japan and South Korea, and China and South Korea empower regional cooperation; iii) How should China correctly understand the opportunities and challenges of the current cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea?
Besides, there are also scholars doubting whether Japan or South Korea will accept any trilateral economic cooperation which puts China in the leadership position. Of course, with many believing that multilateralism can happen in East Asia on paper only, the fact is it is highly unlikely Japan-China or Japan-ROK and China-South Korea “good” or “normal” bilateral relations are even possible. Others are searching for answers to more immediate questions: what impact will Trump’s coming to power have on China, Japan and South Korea? What impact will Trump’s tariff policy have on China, Japan and South Korea? Is Trump’s tariff policy short-term or medium- to long-term? If China, Japan and South Korea do not agree on these issues, will it be difficult for the three countries to maintain consistency in their response measures in all aspects, etc.
Yet another dominant trend among op-ed columns and media commentaries is the “obstacle” on the way to trilateral cooperation, i.e., the United States. In a 3-part long interview given to a Chinese newspaper, Professor Zhan Debin, currently director of the Korean Peninsula Research Centre at the Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, has emphatically pointed out the need for China, Japan, and South Korea to come together and keep the United States out of their three-nation economic and trade cooperation. “The current global strategy of the United States is to contain China in an all-round way, so the United States certainly does not want to see Japan and South Korea discuss free trade zone cooperation with China,” Debin said.
In Conclusion
To sum up, notwithstanding the 90-day tariff suspension (not including the Chinese imports) by President Trump; or, in spite of Trump’s recent statement made with keeping Japan and South Korea in mind, that “tariff talks will be separate from security issues”; and, given Trump’s frequent flip flopping on various issues, even if the tariffs are eventually removed, the truth is the United States has largely lost the trust as a reliable power and ally of countries in the Asia-Pacific region in general and of its East Asian allies particularly of Japan and South Korea.
To scholars and IR analysts in the Asia-Pacific region and in the East Asian nations, this has come as a rare opportunity for China to establish the image of a responsible major country and to demonstrate its role as a defender of international norms. On the other hand, as some scholars have pointed out, the United States, while suffering from a trade deficit, is also experiencing a rising global trust deficit. Moreover, the United States is trying to prevent China from forming a united front with other countries affected by reciprocal tariffs, aiming to undermine the possibility of China’s potential alliance with the European Union, Japan, South Korea and other countries to avoid the United States being isolated.
In an article published in mainland China a couple of days ago, Gu Qingyang of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, has called it Trump’s total failure in understanding China. “But this is a rare opportunity for China. As long as China can effectively respond to the United States and establish a positive image in the international community, its strategic goal will have been achieved. China’s ultimate goal is still to get the United States back to the negotiating table,” Professor Qingyang opined. If China succeeds in achieving the goal, the argument goes, then with or without the FTAs the EU countries, China’s neighboring countries – including India, as also Japan and South Korea, all will be compelled to choose China over the U.S.
