As tensions persist between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, and the broader regional balance sees an assertive China building its influence, an unlikely opportunity emerges: Russia, traditionally a behind-the-scenes actor in South Asia, could step forward to mediate a lasting resolution. If successful, such mediation would not only help address the enduring Kashmir dispute but could also lay the groundwork for an Indo-Pakistan Confederation — a strategic realignment with profound implications for the entire Eurasian order.
This path would begin not through formal treaties or summits, but through quiet, deliberate Track II diplomacy—unofficial channels involving academics, civil society, and retired officials. Through collaborative engagement with Indonesia, Iran, Central Asian states, Saudi Arabia, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Russia can position itself as a credible facilitator, reduce China’s leverage, and reinvigorate its influence in Central Asia.
India and Pakistan alike stand to gain enhanced stability, new economic frontiers, and greater freedom to pursue their strategic priorities without external overdependence.
The Case for Mediation
The Kashmir conflict is one of the world’s longest-standing disputes. Rooted in competing claims, identity politics, and legacies of partition, it has fueled wars, cross-border militancy, and persistent diplomatic friction between two nuclear powers.
With traditional third-party mediation proposals consistently rejected by India, any resolution must respect national sovereignty while offering mutual incentives.
Russia, a historic partner of India and a growing collaborator with Pakistan, is uniquely positioned to fill this role—provided it acts with discretion, balance, and regional legitimacy. A Russian-facilitated roadmap toward de-escalation in Kashmir and structured dialogue could open the door to something once unimaginable: a loosely aligned Indo-Pakistan Confederation focused on economic cooperation, shared infrastructure, and people-to-people connectivity.
Russia’s interests in mediating such a breakthrough are far from altruistic. First, it offers Moscow a way to rebuild its diplomatic capital, which has been strained by confrontational policies in Europe and the West. Russia’s emergence as a peacemaker in a volatile Asian region could boost its soft power and counterbalance European efforts to draw India into its orbit.
For instance, the EU’s potential defense and security pact with India, similar to those with Japan and South Korea, aims to develop shared defense capabilities and improve operational readiness while also creating opportunities for India’s defense sector in Europe. This has a bearing on the Indo-Russian defense partnership, even as the two countries evolve new ways to collaborate.
This partnership would allow India to access advanced technologies, while European states could benefit from India’s competitive manufacturing facilities, potentially leading to increased investment and cooperation.
Second, mediation allows Russia to reduce its growing dependence on China. As Beijing’s footprint expands through the Belt and Road Initiative and projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Moscow finds itself in a subordinate position in parts of Eurasia. By facilitating an Indo-Pak rapprochement and inviting broader regional participation, Russia can dilute Chinese dominance and rebalance strategic influence across the region.
Third, this initiative could reassert Russia’s traditional influence in Central Asia. Once a core region of Russian strategic depth, Central Asia — which has been hedging between the Western world and Russia — has been gradually drawn into China’s economic orbit. A renewed Russian role — framed as a convener and integrator — would allow Moscow to strengthen its regional presence without direct confrontation.
Fourthly, Russia’s mediation of an Indo-Pakistan Confederation aligns with its Greater Eurasia vision and could deepen its collaborative relationship with India in promoting a multipolar world order.
India plays a crucial role as a friendly power and durable ally, exemplified by its membership in the SCO. This partnership serves as a strategic balancing act, mitigating Russia’s dependence on China and India’s tilt to the West. It also prevents a bipolar world dominated by the US and China, instead promoting a tri-multipolar order comprising the US-led West, the Sino-Russo Entente, and an informally Indian-led Global South.
The Indian Dividend
The potential gains for India from an Indo-Pakistan Confederation are substantial, despite the political complexities involved. Such a confederation could unlock a new era of regional stability and prosperity.
Geopolitically, a resolution to the Kashmir issue within a confederation framework could represent a significant national security triumph for India. It would reduce cross-border violence, curtail militant recruitment, and enhance India’s global standing as a responsible power capable of resolving intractable conflicts. Cooperative management of shared borders and transnational threats like terrorism would also improve regional security.
Economically, integration with Pakistan’s vast consumer market and improved land access to Afghanistan and Central Asia would create significant opportunities for Indian businesses and position India as a crucial regional connectivity hub.
Collaborative infrastructure projects in areas like energy and water resources would redefine South Asia’s economic geography and foster interdependencies that solidify peace.
Strategically, an Indo-Pakistan Confederation would grant India greater strategic autonomy, allowing it to focus more on addressing China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. It would enhance India’s standing as a leading global power and a reliable partner for nations seeking stability and development in the region.
Importantly, a cooperative framework with Pakistan could reshape the strategic dynamics of the region vis-Ã -vis China. By reducing the strategic drag of the Indo-Pak rivalry, India could present a more cohesive and formidable geopolitical entity capable of collectively addressing external challenges, including those posed by China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Ultimately, an Indo-Pakistan Confederation would empower India to focus more intently on its broader strategic objectives in the Indo-Pacific and contribute to a more multipolar and balanced Asian order.
The Strategic Upside for Pakistan
For Pakistan, a mediated resolution on Kashmir and the prospect of a structured confederation with India offer an opportunity to recalibrate its regional position, stabilize its economy, and diversify its strategic partnerships beyond transactional dependencies.
First, it restores strategic equilibrium. While China remains a critical partner — particularly through CPEC — an improved relationship with India would reduce Pakistan’s over-reliance on any single external actor. A confederation framework would allow Islamabad to pivot from reactive posturing to proactive regional diplomacy.
Second, it offers a path to economic revitalization. Closer integration with India would lower trade costs, attract investment, and catalyze growth in key regions such as Punjab and Sindh. Enhanced cross-border connectivity would expand Pakistan’s export capacity, integrate it into regional supply chains, and improve energy security through joint infrastructure.
Third, mediation provides an opportunity to reframe the Kashmir issue. By participating in a multilateral, SCO-supported process that emphasizes local empowerment and shared governance, Pakistan can shift the narrative from conflict to diplomacy. This reframing could allow Islamabad to claim diplomatic credibility without relinquishing core political positions.
Finally, Pakistan would gain greater regional legitimacy. Contributing to a Russian-led, regionally supported initiative — alongside Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Central Asian states — signals a commitment to multipolar diplomacy. It expands Pakistan’s diplomatic bandwidth and strengthens its standing as a constructive actor in South Asian and Eurasian affairs.
The Process: Starting with Track II Diplomacy
Formal negotiations are politically risky, especially in an environment shaped by mistrust, populism, and entrenched nationalist narratives. Instead, the pathway begins with Track II diplomacy—quiet, unofficial engagement among retired officials, scholars, policy experts, and civil society leaders from India, Pakistan, and the broader region.
· Phase 1 (Confidence-Building): The initial focus should be on low-stakes collaboration: academic exchanges, environmental cooperation (such as water management in Kashmir), and cross-border trade facilitation. These initiatives help rebuild trust, depoliticize engagement, and test the waters for more sensitive issues.
· Phase 2 (Expanding Dialogue): As trust grows, the process should expand to include Kashmiri voices from both sides of the Line of Control. Simulations and scenario exercises can explore models of local governance, joint administration, or demilitarized economic zones—drawing on lessons from peace processes like Aceh (Indonesia) and Northern Ireland.
· Phase 3 (Semi-Official Transition—Track I.5): The Track II groundwork can then inform semi-official dialogue, with co-facilitation by regional actors. Proposals developed through these discussions can be presented to respective governments, supported by public opinion shaped through transparent civil engagement.
· Phase 4 (Structured Negotiations): Eventually, should the political climate permit, formal Track I negotiations could begin. These talks would institutionalize mechanisms for joint management of cross-border issues, economic cooperation, and phased security arrangements.
Regional Collaboration: Multiplying Russian Leverage
To succeed — and be seen as legitimate — Russia cannot act alone. It must operate within a coalition of partners who bring both credibility and regional alignment. These actors can jointly reinforce the neutrality and durability of the mediation process while balancing influence among global powers.
· Indonesia, a respected neutral actor with successful mediation experience in Aceh, could serve as a co-facilitator and offer insights into autonomy models and governance arrangements that ensure inclusion without threatening national sovereignty.
· Iran, with deep diplomatic and security ties in the region, could facilitate backchannel diplomacy and support energy integration across South and Central Asia. Its relationships with both India and Pakistan, combined with its strategic interest in regional stability, make it a valuable behind-the-scenes partner.
· Saudi Arabia, a rising diplomatic actor with growing stakes in South Asian stability, brings economic capital and political weight. Riyadh has recently deepened ties with both India and Pakistan and has expressed interest in broader Eurasian engagement through platforms like the SCO and BRICS.
Saudi involvement in particular would serve to bolster the economic credibility of any post-conflict reconstruction or integration package. Additionally, it would lend legitimacy among Gulf states and the wider Islamic world while supporting regional counterterrorism initiatives and cross-border investment frameworks aligned with Vision 2030.
Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, stand to benefit from greater connectivity and reduced regional tension. Their participation ensures that mediation efforts align with regional security priorities and economic development goals while providing Moscow a platform to reassert leadership in the heart of Eurasia.
Finally, SCO member states provide an institutional framework for multilateral diplomacy. With both India and Pakistan as members — and China as a key stakeholder — the SCO offers a politically neutral space for dialogue. While China’s role would need to be carefully calibrated given Indian sensitivities, SCO endorsement reinforces the legitimacy and multilateral character of the process.
China & US Playbooks: Reducing China’s Leverage, Balancing US Moves
Russia’s potential mediation in Kashmir and facilitation of an Indo-Pakistan Confederation could serve as a strategic move to counterbalance China’s growing influence in Central Asia and mitigate the unpredictability of US actions under the Trump administration.
This approach allows Russia to strengthen its position in the region, limit Chinese expansion, diversify its alliances and reduce dependence on any one country, and promote stability in South Asia and the broader Indo-Asia Pacific, which is crucial for its own economic and security interests.
China’s economic dominance in South and Central Asia — particularly via BRI and CPEC — has created strategic dependencies and complexities that some quarters in Moscow view with discomfort.
A successful mediation in Kashmir, leading to Indo-Pak economic integration outside of Beijing’s framework, would offer alternatives to Chinese-led development. By driving an initiative where multiple regional actors shape outcomes, Russia dilutes Beijing’s primacy.
This multipolar structure strengthens Russia’s hand, allowing it to influence Eurasian connectivity, security, and diplomacy on more equal terms. Central Asia can be a vital element to the success of any Indo-Pak reconciliation.
As the geographic bridge between South and West Asia, the region stands to benefit from new rail, road, and energy corridors linking India and Pakistan to Iran, Afghanistan, and beyond. For Russia, involving Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other SCO members provides
· New leverage over regional connectivity projects;
· Enhanced security cooperation through joint counterterrorism and intelligence sharing;
· Renewed relevance in regional infrastructure development—beyond China-centric initiatives.
Meanwhile, the US is re-evaluating its commitments to gain strategic flexibility in preparation for a prolonged competition with China. This involves reassessing existing alliances and partnerships, adjusting its military presence and deployments, and focusing on re-industrialization and economic revitalization. And this comes amidst discussion of a rapprochement with Russia.
By doing so, the US aims to develop new strategies to counter China’s growing influence and assertiveness and to maintain its global leadership and competitiveness. Overall, the US is attempting to reposition itself for a new era of strategic competition and to ensure that it remains a dominant player on the global stage.
Toward a New Regional Order
A successful mediation effort and confederation framework would not just resolve a bilateral dispute. It would:
· Transform South Asia’s strategic landscape, replacing hostility with structured cooperation;
· Create new patterns of trade and transit, boosting growth across South and Central Asia;
· Strengthen multipolar diplomacy, elevating regional voices over superpower rivalries;
· Provide India and Pakistan with the breathing space to pursue sovereign, outward-looking strategies.
For Russia, it would mark a return to strategic centrality — not through confrontation, but through collaboration and diplomacy. While the idea of an Indo-Pakistan Confederation may seem utopian today, it is precisely in moments of geopolitical flux that imaginative diplomacy matters most.
Russia, facing isolation in the West and entanglement with a China and its own axis — and a China-Russia-North Korea axis that may not benefit China’s own strategic calculus—has a chance to redefine its Eurasian role and hew to its Greater Eurasia agenda by leading a coalition-driven mediation process in South Asia.
India and Pakistan both stand to gain — economically, strategically, and socially — from de-escalating Kashmir and forging new ties under a flexible, modern framework of cooperation. The starting point is not grand declarations, but humble, deliberate Track II engagement. From there, the possibilities expand.
The 21st-century Eurasian order will not and should not be shaped solely in Beijing, Washington, or Brussels. It may well be negotiated in Astana, Jakarta, Tehran, or Riyadh — and perhaps even in the shadows of the Himalayas. If Russia wants to shape that order, it must begin by building bridges — starting with Kashmir.
