Authors: Elijah R. Biji and Anand K.T Nambiar*
“We will establish a policy system to boost birth rates and pursue a proactive national strategy in response to population ageing,” said Xi Jinping (Beijing, 2022).
For the past few decades, China has boasted about its population as its defining strength for economic advancement and consolidating its global influence. But now the tides are turning; China faces uncertainty as its population shrinks and ages unprecedentedly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country experienced a massive decline in population by 850,000 in 2022 and 2.08 million, or 0.15%, to 1.409 billion in 2023, leading India to overtake China to become the world’s most populous country.
China’s approach to population policy evolved through three distinct phases. From the 1950s to the 1970s, population growth was embraced as a vital component of national development. In the 1970s and 1980s, measures to manage population growth were introduced but remained relatively lenient. However, from the 1980s to 2016, the country adopted a more stringent population control policy, marking a significant shift in its demographic strategy.
Phase 1 (1950 – 1970)
From the onset of the First Opium War in 1839 until the end of the Korean War in 1953, China succumbed to an uninterrupted century of social upheavals that consequentially stalled population growth. Following the takeover of the People’s Republic of China, the nation experienced a state of prolonged peace with subsequent extension in population growth, which doubled and redoubled significantly before the dawn of the Chinese Industrial Revolution.
The rise in population trends led the government to propose birth control and educational reforms. Mao, however, dismissed such ideas, believing that a large population symbolized national power and was essential for propagating Marxist principles. This outlook was reinforced during the Great Leap Forward, where inflated reports and overstatements of food production led Mao to encourage population growth further, sidelining family planning policies despite the emerging socioeconomic challenges and threats posed by China’s close ally, the Soviet Union.
Phase 2 (1970s – 1980s)
Concerned about the significant challenges of managing a rapidly growing population, the Chinese government began implementing population control measures in the 1970s. One of the key measures introduced during this period was the “later, longer, fewer” initiative, aimed at delaying marriage, increasing intervals between births, and reducing family size. The “later, longer, fewer” (晚稀少) initiative, launched in 1973, raised the legal marriage age to 23 for women and 25 for men, promoted at least a three-year gap between births, and limited families to two children. Local and provincial governments set up birth planning offices and appointed local birth planning officers. Although birth quotas were technically voluntary, they were linked to incentives for families and career progression for officials. Those who failed to comply with the new rules faced penalties. This policy was effective; from 1970 to 1980, China’s fertility rate dropped dramatically from 6.1 to 2.7.
Phase 3 (1980 – 2016)
The Chinese government followed up its “later, longer, fewer” family planning campaign by implementing the one-child policy, launched nationwide in 1980. This policy strictly limited urban couples to having only one child. However, it was softened in the mid-1980s, allowing rural families to have a second child if the firstborn was a girl and granting exceptions for ethnic minorities.
This stringent policy drew widespread international criticism and was frequently denounced by human rights organizations. They condemned the practice of forced abortions and sterilizations, arguing that such measures constituted severe human rights violations. While the one-child policy was initially intended as a temporary measure, it is estimated to have prevented up to 100 to 400 million births, according to different estimates.
The policy enforcement varied across regions and employed a combination of incentives and penalties. Families who complied were offered financial benefits and preferential employment opportunities, while those who defied the policy faced fines and other sanctions. In some cases, harsher measures, including forced abortions and sterilizations, were used, highlighting the policy’s controversial nature.
China’s one-child policy, once aimed at curbing population growth, was scrapped as it led to an aging population and a shrinking workforce. After easing restrictions in 2015, couples were allowed a second child. In a significant shift, the government now lets couples decide freely on having children, marking the end of decades of strict reproductive control.
Challenges and Consequences
China is grappling with a rapidly aging population that poses serious social and economic challenges. By 2050, the elderly (60 and above) will make up 33% of the population, up from 12% in 2010, making it the oldest population in the world. This shift drives healthcare costs and dependency ratios while creating labor shortages. These shortages are raising wages, which undermines the country’s economic competitiveness. Compounding the issue, China is aging relatively lowly, complicating its transition to a high-income economy.
The One-Child Policy has played a significant role in this crisis, leaving China with a “top-heavy” population pyramid where older generations outnumber younger ones. Fewer young people mean fewer caregivers for the elderly, both within families and the healthcare sector, and a shrinking workforce to sustain the economy. Gender imbalance is another consequence. Decades of sex-selective abortions and infanticide have led to 35 million more men than women, making it difficult for many men to marry and have children. Studies also indicate that the generation of only-child boys often faces behavioral issues, showing less trust, competitiveness, and conscientiousness compared to peers.
The economic implications are severe. A shrinking workforce slows growth and reduces tax revenues, while an expanding elderly population drives up pension costs. To manage this, China has increased the retirement age—from 60 to 63 for men, 55 to 58 for white-collar women, and 50 to 55 for blue-collar women. These changes aim to ease the strain on pensions but don’t fully resolve the challenges posed by a rapidly aging and shrinking population.
China’s aging population poses significant challenges, especially as it faces these shifts without the economic stability of developed nations. Unlike countries where aging followed economic growth, China must manage limited resources while sustaining development. For 45 years, population control measures like the 1970s “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign and the 1979 One-Child Policy drastically reduced fertility rates. While these policies slowed population growth, they left lasting demographic issues, including a rapidly aging society and a skewed sex ratio. The broader economic and social impacts, such as slower growth, rising pension costs, and increased welfare spending, are becoming apparent. These challenges complicate China’s efforts to balance development and meet the demands of an ageing population.
*Anand K.T Nambiar is currently pursuing his graduation in International Relations, Peace and Conflict Studies from St. Joseph’s University, Bangalore.