The rivalry between the US and China is labelled as the 21st century “Cold War” due to its complicated nature, ideological discordance, technology competition, and regional power struggle, especially in the Indo-Pacific. Unlike the Cold War that happened in the 20th century, this dispute is not mainly about military dominance but further centres on competing governance models. The US, which believes in a liberal-led democracy, contradicts China’s authoritarian capitalism. This ideological branching is supported by an intense technological competition such as the role of semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), cyber capabilities, and 5G infrastructures and the Indo-Pacific has been an important region in this rivalry.
In contrast to the United States’ goals of creating a “free and open” region, China is eager to expand its influence via the Belt Road Initiative and assert its territorial claims in the South China Sea. This situates Australia centrally within the Indo-Pacific, both geographically and economically, highlighting its significant role in regional security and economic affairs. In the current landscape of international politics, particularly within the Indo-Pacific region, Australia is characterized as a “middle power,” signifying its significant influence in both regional and global matters without attaining the status of a global superpower. Being a middle power for Australia entails balancing its relationship with the two major power rivals, the United States and China, by navigating security alliances with the United States while preserving economic reliance on China.
In light of this, it appears exceedingly challenging for Australia to adopt an explicit stance in this ongoing “cold war.” Thus, Australia has managed to keep its economic, global, security, and climate leadership responsibilities in check. In the domain of economics, Australia emerges as a formidable player on the global stage, primarily attributable to its varied exports encompassing agricultural goods, services, and minerals. The economic ties between Australia and nations within the Indo-Pacific region are regarded as robust.
The economic development in the region is characterized by a notable trade relationship with nations such as China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries, which cultivate the economic interdependence that underscores the stability and growth within the Indo-Pacific region. Australia is a prominent actor in the trading sector and is a proponent of economic cooperation and free trade. This is demonstrated by its participation in the G20, OECD, and APEC. Australia implements a trade reform concerning its agricultural sector through initiatives such as the Cairns Group to advance its global economic discourse (Government AU, 2023).
Within the scope of global interactions, Australia is recognised as a state with the possession of a stable democracy injected with its commitment to fostering multilateral engagement. Australia is known for its proactive efforts in participating with international organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and World Trade Organisation (WTO), mainly to maintain global stability. Moreover, Australia has also contributed to numerous humanitarian efforts and peacekeeping missions, such as providing $36.9 million to other countries in need, such as Ukraine and Palestine (Save The Children AU, 2024). In addition, as a respectable global citizen who mainly focuses on peacekeeping efforts, Australia aims to contribute to the UN peacebuilding commission for a two-year term in 2025-2026 by participating through the UN architecture and its country program (Australian Government, 2021).
Known for its generosity–Australia has also played a role in climate change leadership. Australia has become one of the countries that acknowledge climate change as a critical global issue. Australia’s commitment to addressing climate change has led to its participation in international dialogue aimed at reducing emissions as well as promoting sustainable practices. In regards to Australia’s security and defence, Australia has joined in varied security alliances such as the ANZUS Treaty that consists of the US and New Zealand as well as the AUKUS agreement with the UK and the US. These security pacts enhance the role of the military and its regional security position in response to China’s hegemonic ambition threats. These key roles that Australia currently fosters are an effort of navigating its role as a middle power whilst maintaining both its security and economic benefits as well as maintaining a stable Indo-Pacific region.
Being at the frontline of this dispute, Australia’s position will be exposed to a test by the US asking, “Are you with us?” whilst China asks, “Are you against us?”. For Australia, there exists a duty to cultivate a more concentrated strategic partnership with the United States, while simultaneously enhancing direct relationships with its Indo-Pacific allies. This endeavor should also support the development of an open and free Indo-Pacific region, aimed at counterbalancing China’s influence. Given Australia’s characterization as a middle power within the realm of international politics and the geopolitical tensions that have arisen in the Indo-Pacific region, it is incumbent upon Australia to mitigate the likelihood of a burgeoning sino-centric regional order. Consequently, to facilitate the realization of a diminished Sino-centric regional order, a pertinent inquiry emerged regarding Australia’s intended role in maneuvering through this modern international political contention.
Primarily, Australia’s ties with the US play a vital component in understanding its manifestations as a rising middle power, yet at the same time, Australia’s future security is closely linked to its trading relationship with the Indo-Pacific. Throughout the years, Australia has maintained the balance through efforts such as security alliances, climate change leadership, and economic leadership. But maintaining the balance has become harder. “It is impossible to forsake the United States, our closest security and investment partner. It is also impossible to disengage from China, our largest trading partner. This is the central point; almost every strategic and economic question facing Australia in the coming decades will be refracted through the geopolitical competition of the United States and China” (Hastie, 2019).
Therefore, to sustain its state of balance in maneuvering through the 21st century’s geopolitical tensions, Australia articulates its goals by fortifying its alliances. The 2017 white paper demonstrates that the US-Australia alliance occupies a pivotal role in Australia’s strategy to ensure stability in the Indo-Pacific region. For Australia to articulate its interests as a middle power with a specific focus on the Indo-Pacific and to collaborate effectively with the US, it is essential for Australia to extend its trade, diplomatic, and defense efforts well beyond its northern boundaries. This methodology represents a progressive advancement in the formulation of defence policy, which has traditionally underscored the concept of the “sea-air gap” as a framework for Australia to collaborate closely with the United States in delineating a regional order that is congruent with Australia’s interests as a middle power.
Furthermore, highlighting the significance of regional collaboration via QUAD, which encompasses partnerships with Japan, India, and Australia, aims to cultivate an inclusive Indo-Pacific by enhancing cooperation in maritime security, cyber resilience, disaster response, and infrastructure development. This initiative serves as a vital foundation for sustaining positive relations among Indo-Pacific nations in response to the growing influence of China in the region.
Moreover, it is essential to navigate strategic competition, as Australia undeniably harbors concerns regarding the risks associated with the strategic rivalry between the United States and China. One could contend that the central argument pertains to the notion of aligning with Beijing and thereby supporting China’s interests. Establish an exclusively economic connection and conduct an in-depth review of the prospective trajectory of China’s growth. This concept held a certain appeal. However, such a policy or argument would stand in opposition to the fundamental values upheld by Australia. Consequently, Australia’s aim in this context is to strengthen its national interests and principles by refraining from alignment with China, given the authoritarian path under President Xi Jinping.
In this era of globalization, as we embrace and adjust to technological and economic prospects, technology will significantly shape Australia’s foreign and military strategies. This encompasses the advancement of intricate military capabilities and the investigation of novel operational realms such as cyberspace, while presently reassessing the application of traditional military power.
To enhance interconnection within a globalized world system, thereby unveiling new opportunities for Australia. Robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), and the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) serve as pivotal examples that significantly influence the evolution of globalization. Australia should leverage these advancements to enhance its position within the Indo-Pacific region.
In summary, the “New Cold War” poses a multifaceted challenge for Australia as a “middle power,” compelling it to maneuver through a convoluted geopolitical landscape characterized by ideological disparities, technological rivalry, and the contest for regional dominance. In contemplating the future, Australia must embrace a more proactive and strategic mindset to ensure the protection of its economy and security by enhancing its multilateral framework through initiatives such as QUAD. Beyond that, a critical step would be to increase economic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region while also putting a priority on defense and technical innovation. Through the enhancement of collaborative efforts with regional partners and the exploration of emerging opportunities in technological fields, including artificial intelligence and sustainable technologies, Australia can diminish its reliance on China while simultaneously strengthening its role as a stabilizing entity in the Indo-Pacific region.
Thus, will Australia sustain this equilibrium, or will it gravitate towards a particular faction? –Essentially neutrality might appear to be the most favorable stance in this situation, in reality, Australia’s position as a middle power has allowed it to adeptly manage the pressures presented without compromising its sovereignty or core values. Hence, if in the near future Australia chose to “drop” its long-maintained balance, Australia would have leaned itself toward the US due to their aligned values in creating an inclusive Indo-Pacific. However, at this moment, Australia would have to maintain its steps in walking on the tightrope between these two major powers.
