Indonesia recently embarked on simultaneous military exercises with two nations on opposite ends of the geopolitical spectrum: Russia and Australia. These drills, held under the leadership of President Prabowo Subianto, underscore Indonesia’s ambition to assert itself as a neutral yet strategic player in an increasingly polarised world.
For the first time in its history, Indonesia conducted naval exercises with Russia, signifying deepening defence relations with Moscow. Running parallel to this, Indonesia engaged in its largest joint military drill with Australia in years, showcasing its enduring partnership with Western counterparts.
The Orruda Joint Exercise, featuring naval operations in Surabaya and the Java Sea, is viewed as a reflection of Prabowo’s commitment to strengthening ties with Moscow. This exercise stems from an agreement reached during the 2018 Navy-to-Navy Talks (NTNT) between the Indonesian and Russian navies. Despite the four-year gap since the agreement, the drills materialized only after Prabowo assumed office in October 2024.
By emphasizing collaboration and knowledge exchange, this exercise claims to bolster military capacity while improving diplomatic relations. Prabowo, who called Russia a “great friend” during his visit to Moscow earlier this year, seems intent on preserving Indonesia’s non-aligned stance and close partnership with Russia which have proven beneficial for the country’s modernization program since the Cold War.
Indonesia’s defence ties with Russia remains significant, as Jakarta continues to depend on Russian-made weapon systems for its military capabilities. From Su-30 fighter jets and BMP tanks to small arms, Indonesia relies heavily on Russia and its allies, such as Belarus, for a steady supply of spare parts and ammunition. Many of these critical components were not included in previous joint-manufacturing agreements with Russia, underscoring the importance of this partnership.
On the other hand, the joint drills with Australia underscore Jakarta’s dedication to fostering regional stability and strengthening collaboration with Western partners. Dubbed Exercise Keris Woomera, the initiative involves more than 2,000 personnel participating in air, maritime, and disaster relief operations. This milestone follows the landmark signing of the Australia-Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement in August 2024, a historic achievement for both nations. It also demonstrates Indonesia’s capability to sustain strong and constructive relations with its regional neighbours.
Navigating the Stormy Waters of Neutrality
Indonesia’s foreign policy is rooted in the philosophy of bebas-aktif (independent and active), a doctrine that champions neutrality while enabling proactive engagement. Under Prabowo’s administration, this approach is being reinvigorated with a pragmatic twist: befriending all nations to maximize opportunities while avoiding entanglement in rivalries. As Prabowo succinctly put it, Indonesia strives for “a thousand friends, too few; one enemy, too many.”
While Prabowo’s balancing act is commendable, they are not without significant hurdles. Both Russia and Australia present their own set of challenges for Indonesia over time. Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine complicates prospects for deeper military collaboration, particularly in arms procurement and joint research development. There is a high likelihood that the United States could invoke the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), a move similar to what derailed Indonesia’s earlier plans to acquire Su-35 jets from Russia. This pressure ultimately pushed Jakarta to opt for France’s Dassault Rafale as a viable alternative.
On the other hand, Indonesia-Australia defence ties may appear far more appealing at a glance, but it does bring significant issues. Chief among them is the AUKUS pact involving the US, UK, and Australia, which seeks to counter China’s influence in the region. As tensions in the South China Sea rise, Indonesia’s commitment to neutrality will face increasing pressure. Should conflicts between China and the West escalate, Jakarta might be compelled to abandon its non-aligned stance and take a clear position. This dilemma could become even more pronounced under the upcoming leadership of US President-elect Donald Trump, whose policies may push AUKUS toward a confrontation with China, leaving little room for diplomatic retreat.
Beijing is Next on the List
Indonesia’s diplomatic balancing act continues to take shape as it prepares for a groundbreaking joint military exercise with China, marking a significant step after nearly a decade-long hiatus in defence collaboration. Following the conclusion of drills with Russia and Australia, this upcoming engagement signals Jakarta’s intent to broaden its defence partnerships amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.
The process gained momentum in October 2024 when Indonesian Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin met with China’s Ambassador Wang Lutong to discuss reviving military cooperation. Their discussions reflected mutual aspirations to address shared maritime challenges and deepen defence ties.
These dialogues culminated in a bilateral naval coordination between Indonesian Navy and People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLA Navy) meeting held in Beijing on October 28, 2024, where final preparations were made for the “Heping Garuda 2024” military exercise. Set to take place in Jakarta this December, the exercise represents a renewed commitment to fostering naval collaboration and reinforcing regional stability.
The Indonesian delegation, led by Rear Admiral Dyan Primana S., extended further invitations to the PLA Navy, including participation in the fifth Multilateral Naval Exercise Komodo (MNEK), which will be held in Bali in February 2025, and the ASEAN Plus Cadet Sail 2025 program for naval academy cadets. On their part, the PLA Navy invited Indonesia to attend the international forum “Maritime Community with A Shared Future,” scheduled for November 2024. Additionally, both navies discussed plans for conducting passing exercises during reciprocal visits by warships to each other’s waters, symbolizing mutual goodwill and operational collaboration.
It should be noted while Indonesia and China share robust economic and cultural ties, their military cooperation has been relatively limited since the suspension of joint exercises in 2015 due to maritime disputes in the North Natuna Sea. However, the recent decision to resume joint exercises signifies a notable shift, reflecting strategic interests on both sides. Additionally, a joint statement between Indonesia and China on the South China Sea territorial dispute highlighted a “shared understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims.” Nonetheless, the Indonesian government later clarified that it does not acknowledge China’s claims over the South China Sea, despite signing a maritime development agreement with Beijing.
Prabowo’s Global Gamble
As regional tensions, particularly in the South China Sea, continue to mount, Indonesia’s long-held neutral stance faces an unprecedented test. The country, as ASEAN’s de facto leader, is under constant pressure to mediate disputes and ensure regional stability. Yet, in moments of crisis, failing to articulate a firm position risk diminishing Indonesia’s credibility and undermining its leadership in Southeast Asia.
Prabowo’s vision positions Indonesia as a bridge between competing powers, leveraging its relationships to secure economic and strategic benefits. By pursuing joint military exercises with Russia and Australia in the same week and China in December, it seems he wants to let the world know that Indonesia will chart its own course, free from external influence.
However, the success of this policy depends on Prabowo’s ability to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. Maintaining balance while avoiding the pitfalls of favouritism will require deft diplomacy, strategic foresight, and a steadfast commitment to Indonesia’s foundational principles.
For now, Indonesia’s message to the world is clear: it is not a pawn in the great power and is committed to being a friend to all and an enemy to none. Whether this strategy can withstand the mounting pressures of global rivalries remains to be seen, but for the moment, Prabowo’s balancing act offers a compelling vision of Indonesia’s place in the world.
