Confronted with a profound demographic crisis that threatens its future, China is experiencing a significant population decline, with far-reaching consequences across various sectors.
One of the most visible impacts has been the closure of kindergartens, thousands of them in fact, have closed down in 2023. This mass closure has left many kindergarten teachers, as well as students studying early childhood education, grappling with career transitions and uncertain futures. Many students in early childhood education programs are now shifting majors, with some choosing to pursue careers in English or Chinese literature, while others are moving into fields such as mathematics education.
The sharp decline in preschool education is underscored by troubling statistics. According to the Ministry of Education, the number of kindergartens in China fell to 274,400 in 2023, a decrease of 14,800 from the previous year. The number of children enrolled in preschool education also dropped by 5.35 million, a decline of 11.6%. Additionally, the number of full-time preschool teachers fell to 3.07 million in 2023. These figures, though alarming, may underestimate the full extent of the crisis.
In December 2023, the Department of Education of Hunan Province issued a directive on the closure and consolidation of kindergartens, marking the first such initiative by a provincial government in China. This decision has sparked widespread public debate, drawing attention to a critical issue that has been slow to gain recognition: China’s demographic decline. While the country only began to fully acknowledge the implications of its aging population and shrinking birth rates around 2022, the effects are now impossible to ignore.
As things stand, the failure to address the long-term consequences of China’s demographic trends has contributed significantly to the current financial, debt, and market crises engulfing the real estate industry. It is evident that the dual pressures of an aging society and declining birthrates were foreseeable, making the current housing crisis almost irreversible.
China’s demographic decline is not a gradual, predictable trend but an accelerating crisis. Contributing factors include the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, a shrinking population of women of childbearing age, declining fertility rates, and weakened birth intentions, all of which have compounded the population decline in 2023. As a result, the effects are becoming increasingly severe and visible.
The consequences of this demographic shift are already setting in motion a cycle of crisis. With birth rates at historic lows, exacerbated by the economic fallout from the pandemic, youth unemployment has surged to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, wages for many white-collar workers have stagnated or declined, and the ongoing real estate crisis is steadily eroding household wealth. These economic pressures further discourage young people from having children, as the financial burden of child-rearing becomes more prohibitive. Many couples, faced with the high costs of living and raising children, are either opting not to have children or finding it financially impossible to do so.
Perhaps the most pressing concern, however, is the looming crisis of elderly care. The burden of caring for an aging population, both financially and socially, is one that China’s current infrastructure is ill-prepared to handle. As the younger population continues to shrink, the responsibility of caring for elderly family members will increasingly fall on fewer shoulders. In many households, a married couple may be expected to care for four elderly relatives. If one partner must work, the burden becomes even more unbearable, with one individual potentially responsible for providing and caring for four elderly people. This creates a looming caregiving crisis that threatens to overwhelm China’s social safety nets.
Some might point to the current size of the younger population and assume that there are still enough people to manage the country’s needs. However, the reality is much more dire. The younger generation will be preoccupied with the responsibilities of caregiving, leaving little capacity to maintain the population. Moreover, the time lag between birth and adulthood means that any potential contribution from new generations will take decades to materialize. The increasing demand for young people to care for both their aging parents and their own children will further deplete the workforce, compounding the crisis.
Without significant policy changes and a shift in societal priorities, the country faces a future where the population decline could undermine its economic and social stability, leaving China struggling to maintain its place as a global power. This is the sobering reality that China must confront in the years ahead.
