The tectonic plates of the strategic landscape of the Middle East are shifting rapidly.
In an astonishing turn of events, a coalition of rebel groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has broken out of Idlib, a city it controls in northwestern Syria in a province along the border with Turkey. In only a few days, they killed and captured numerous Syrian troops and conquered the city of Aleppo.
HTS has a series of goals. It purports to be an indigenous movement keen on eliminating the regime led by Syrian President Bashar Assad, establishing Islamic rule, and expelling all Iranian militias from Syrian soil. HTS has specifically said it wants to replace the Assad government with one inspired by Islamic principles.
With the advance of HTS, in an offensive that HTS calls “Operation Repelling the Aggression”, thousands of Christians, Kurds, and other minorities are in danger of being slaughtered. Videos of jihadists abducting Kurdish women have already surfaced on social media.
The capture of Aleppo is also bad news for Kurds, Yazidis, Christians, and everyone else whom jihadists perceive as their enemy.
Assad’s international backers, including Russia, Iran, and its terrorist proxy Hezbollah, have been weakened by wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon, making it an opportune moment for the Syrian rebels to attack.
In a bid to halt the rebel’s advance, Syrian government and Russian forces launched airstrikes on Aleppo and Idlib on Monday and Syria is reinforcing its troops in the north of Hama in preparation for a counterattack.
Much of the northeast is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a group led by Kurds and supported by the United States.
It is important to note that today, Syria is not a state in a normal sense of the word, but is rather somewhat of an imperialist French invention that crosses religious and ethnic divides. It is an arena in which various factions and actors have interests, and it is in that territory that the Turkish axis is attacking the Iranian axis.
But Russia and Syria’s attacks notwithstanding, it appears nothing will stand in the way of a rebel takeover of even more areas, including Hama, Homs, and even Damascus. It is more than likely that the rebels will succeed, cementing their complete control over the entirety of Syria.
Background
HTS, which means Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, is the successor organization to former Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra and has long held power in much of Idlib province, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The group was formed around the same time as Syria’s 2011 civil war and consists of well-established armed Islamist factions who, despite their differences, are united in fighting Assad, ISIS, and Iran-backed militias.
HTS was founded in 2017 by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a military commander who gained experience fighting for al-Qaeda against the United States in Iraq during the U.S. invasion.
While Al-Jawlani has a long history as a jihadist leader in Iraq and Syria, in recent years, he has attempted to broaden the appeal of his group.
Despite Jolani’s effort to distance his group from al-Qaeda and ISIS, the U.S. and other Western countries designated the HTS a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2018 and placed a $10 million bounty on him.
Over the years, Jolani’s influence grew despite bouts of infighting and local rivalries. After losing Aleppo, HTS was constricted to Idlib.
After a 2020 ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey generated an uneasy calm in northwestern Syria, the group took the opportunity to restructure its forces.
The rebel fighters began preparations to seize Aleppo a year ago. Still, the assault was delayed by Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza and ultimately launched last week when a ceasefire took hold in Lebanon.
The rebel operation is the boldest advance and most significant challenge to Assad in years in a civil war, where the battle lines have primarily remained stagnant since 2020.
The Assad regime has never regained the power it had used to control Syria before the Arab uprisings in 2011 and the subsequent Syrian Civil War, which began after Assad’s regime violently repressed pro-democracy protesters.
More than 14 million Syrians were displaced from their homes as a result of the war, with millions becoming refugees abroad, according to the United Nations.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a human rights group based in the U.K., estimated last year that more than 600,000 people had been killed during the war.
Even so, until the last few days, Assad’s regime controlled the major cities, their surrounding countryside, and the main highways connecting them.
It is clear now that the war in Syria never ended. It simply dropped out of sight, partly because of turbulence across the Middle East and beyond and because it is almost impossible for journalists to get into the country.
Turkey controls HTS
A notable omission in much of the discussion about Syria is Turkey’s significant and complex role. For years, Turkey has been a central player in supporting elements of the rebel resistance against the Assad regime.
Turkey has vast interests in Syria and supports the radical Sunni axis. It has been cultivating Islamist factions across Syria for several years now.
For years, Turkey allowed Islamists to use its territory to cross the border to Syria to join terrorist organizations there.
The Turkish government, through its massive economic support to the group, became a lifeline for the jihadist HTS.
While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has attempted to normalize relations with Damascus, Assad has made any rapprochement conditional on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syrian territory, which Erdoğan has refused to do.
Looking for leverage in negotiations and territory to push refugees into, Turkey has likely encouraged the rebels to move forward and attack.
Turkey’s lingering influence remains a critical factor, particularly regarding Erdoğan’s capacity to exert control over HTS, which has a history of brutal tactics, including targeting civilians.
Of course, if HTS succeeds in conquering Syria and running Assad out of the country, there are broader implications for the future.
For years, some in Western circles have hoped for Assad’s removal, yet such an outcome could unleash a new wave of regional instability and sectarian violence. If the regime collapses, it may trigger a cycle of vengeance and chaos with profound consequences for the region.
One leading coalition group taking part in the offensive on Aleppo is the “Syrian National Army” (SNA), an umbrella group incorporating dozens of factions with various ideologies that receive funding and arms from Turkey.
That coalition has become a proxy group for Turkey. The National Liberation Front, including HTS, aims to overthrow the Assad regime and establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law.
To most Westerners, this seems foreign, but experts familiar with Middle Eastern history understand that the Westphalian system has never taken root in this region of the world. In the last few centuries and perhaps even further back in history, the Middle East did not consist of nation-states.
Why HTS is dangerous
While al-Jawlani has rejected the terrorist designation, saying his group does not pose a threat to Western or European society, the truth is the opposite.
Al-Jawlani is a zealot, and he has made his ambitions clear by announcing: “With this spirit…we will not only reach Damascus but, Allah permitting, Jerusalem will be awaiting our arrival.”
Radical Islamist groups that subjugate innocent civilians, capture young women as enslaved people, and aim to turn Syria into an Islamist entity do indeed pose a threat to the West and global security in general.
Celebrating the advance of these Islamists invading parts of Syria means celebrating the advance of bloodthirsty jihadists who want to establish an Islamic caliphate and will enthusiastically slaughter anyone who stands in their way.
And once they control Syria, they won’t stop there.
