The drama unfolds on Monday, as lawmakers gather in the National Assembly to vote on the social security budget for the coming year. For Barnier, who has only been in office since September after a snap election called by President Emmanuel Macron, passing the budget is critical to avoiding both a financial and political crisis. However, his centre-right coalition lacks a parliamentary majority, leaving him reliant on the tacit support of Le Pen’s National Rally party. Any attempt to bypass a vote could trigger a no-confidence motion, further destabilizing his position. Even though a compromise has been reached, the PM is not out of the woods yet, as the polarized Parliament might table a motion of no confidence anyway.
The budget is aimed at reining in France’s ballooning deficit, which is projected to reach 6.1% of GDP this year. Barnier initially proposed a mix of spending cuts and tax hikes but has already softened his stance under pressure. Le Pen, sensing her leverage, has demanded significant concessions, including rolling back a tax hike on electricity, protecting pension adjustments, maintaining employer contribution exemptions, limiting access to healthcare for undocumented immigrants, and renegotiating France’s contributions to the EU.
Barnier has yielded on some points, reversing plans on electricity taxes and keeping certain employer exemptions. He has also hinted at limiting undocumented immigrants’ access to healthcare — a move seen as a direct appeal to the far right. Despite his denials, these steps are widely viewed as efforts to appease Le Pen, who insists she will not cooperate without her demands being fully met.
Le Pen has made it clear she expects recognition for her role in shaping policy. “They want our votes, but not our faces,” she said, criticizing Barnier’s reluctance to acknowledge concessions to her party. Meanwhile, Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin has ruled out further compromises, arguing “compromise is not blackmail.”
If Le Pen’s party sides with opposition lawmakers in a no-confidence vote, Barnier’s government could collapse, throwing France into deeper uncertainty. Even if he survives this week’s showdown, the prime minister will face further challenges later in the month, when lawmakers debate the overall state budget for 2024 — and with it, another round of negotiations and potential demands from the National Rally.
It is a political game of chicken with no clear winner in sight, but the stakes for France — and Europe — could not be higher. Meanwhile Le Pen’s political future is dangling by a thread, depending on a verdict on “her leading role” in embezzling European Union funds, a case that could derail her long political career and aspirations for the presidency in 2027. The trial, which began in late September, focuses on accusations that Le Pen and her party misused EU funds by employing parliamentary assistants for domestic party activities instead of EU-related work. Prosecutors presented substantial evidence, including messages and contracts, to back their claims. Le Pen, alongside 24 co-defendants, has denied any wrongdoing, but the prosecution has recommended significant penalties, including a five-year prison sentence and a ban on running for office, signalling the potential end of her political career. She has alleged that the trial is politically motivated, targeting her as a prominent right-wing figure. This rhetoric mirrors strategies used by populists like Donald Trump, emphasizing bias against her and her party. Critics argue that this combative stance reflects a return to the far-right’s traditional narrative of persecution, echoing her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, who often accused the judiciary of left-wing bias.
The trial’s stakes extend beyond Le Pen herself. A conviction could disrupt the National Rally, which she has worked for years to rebrand as a more moderate political force. Internal party tensions are evident, as party president Jordan Bardella has suggested that candidates with criminal records would be barred from running—a policy that could apply to Le Pen if she is convicted, leaving the party’s future uncertain, with the RN’s dauphin ready to take the wheel should Le Pen tumble.
The next few months will test the very fabric of French democracy. Let us hope it stays strong.
