Bush’s pivotal 2002 State of the Union address marked a significant shift in US foreign policy following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Famously labelling Iran, Iraq and North Korea as an ‘axis of evil’, Bush warned of the burgeoning threat of these powers. Two decades and three presidents later, China and Russia’s collusion against the West could not be clearer. His itemised warnings were not a figure of speech, but a prescient reminder of the ranks of hostile, anti-US regimes, which have only gained momentum since 2002. Back then, Putin’s Russia cooperated with the US strategically in Afghanistan and China accepted economic reforms to qualify for entry into the WTO. But neither regime was openly liberal towards its people, nor willing to substantiate friendly relations with the West. Now, Russia’s explicit military cooperation with Iran in Ukraine and the Middle East and China’s implicit economic partnerships have reified Bush’s ‘axis of evil’. Both powers are vying to strengthen ties with Iran to challenge America’s position.
Meanwhile, years of hopeful rhetoric in the echo chamber of the White House have pulled the wool over the eyes of US foreign policy. The alliance between American adversaries is no longer a distant phenomenon, but a complementary strategy to beat the West. This means that the US can no longer afford to romanticise its liberal agenda and continue to underestimate the growing strength of China and Russia.
This does not mean that America should revert to the unilateralism of Bush and Trump. Indeed, such blindness has only worsened the US’s preparedness for the real threat. Rather, America should grapple with the implications of dismissing this threat and amend the sporadic and inefficient features of post-Bush foreign policy. The polarising nature of Biden and Trump’s presidencies spurred a lack of internal and international consensus. This failed to confront the impending dominance of China and Russia to fulfil their agenda and instead allowed an ‘axis of evil’ to proliferate. The gulf created by Washington discord has been filled by a network of cooperation between American adversaries. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has given China momentum for spreading its own autocracy. Russia and Iran’s reciprocal military supply of drones and lethal weapons have bolstered Iran’s defence capabilities against Western strikes. The fruits of this exchange have manifested in Russia’s use of Iranian Shaded-136 drones to strike Ukraine, whilst Iranian air defences recently destroyed by Israel were Russian-made.
Equally, coordinated efforts to circumvent US sanctions to redirect oil imports to China have challenged Western markets whilst undermining the efficacy of sanctions. Both Iran and Russia employ ‘’ghost armadas’’ of tankers that operate under concealment technology as well as falsifying cargo and origin documentation to bypass scrutiny. The Chinese government then enabled private companies to purchase discounted oil from Russia and Iran, using small refineries to evade regulatory oversight through cash payments. Alternatives to Western markets have rocketed whilst American fiscal pressure is resisted. United all under the shared goal to erode Western supremacy, Russia and China’s economic inroads have bolstered their geopolitical stance. Ironically, Bidens aim for multilateralism and cooperation has been squashed in the West and amplified in the East. Iran and China’s 25-year strategic cooperation agreement was signed in 2021 creating a steady flow of oil supplies in exchange for Chinese investment- effectively mapping out the shared goal of undermining the US economically. These scenarios aren’t anomalies- rather they are a microcosm of the wider web of cooperation amongst an ‘axis of evil’ that the US is sleepwalking under.
The US’s domestic inertia materialised in the gap between Trump’s aggressive protectionism and Biden’s dovish multilateralism, all while Iran continue to pursue closer relations with American adversaries. Iran’s recent accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) signals Tehran’s efforts to deepen ties with non-Western powers. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Russian support for Iranian proxy forces is an overt attack on America’s standing in the Middle East. The turbulent trajectory of foreign policy between Trump and Biden has weakened the American response to growing threats, reflecting the polarisation of American society. Biden’s pragmatic multilateralism sought to bridge the gap left by Trump’s aggressive tactics and re-engage in the Iran nuclear deal. However, the sustained lack of durability and implementation of sanctions has fuelled Iran to seek other avenues of economic prosperity to bypass Western pressure.
The consequences of the fractures in US diplomacy are best captured in the Iran nuclear deal. Within multilateral institutions, both Russia and China frequently veto Western resolutions against Iran. For example, both powers opposed Western nations’ attempts to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran following America’s withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in 2018. Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran followed by subsequent sanctions on Russia incentivised these powers to collaborate and circumvent Western pressure. Such collusion was possible when European allies criticised Trump’s withdrawal for dishonouring international agreements. This splintered Western unity allowed Russia and China to offer economic and diplomatic lifelines. Withdrawing from the JCPOA without the support of its allies, the US squandered the diplomatic tool to curtail Iranian nuclear ambitions. Now, whilst Biden aimed to reimplement the JCPOA, the stunted and slow process of negotiations has further allowed Iran to resume its nuclear programme and enrich Uranium supplies under the backing of China and Russia. Thus, Biden’s feeble approach has created a stalemate allowing Iran to explore adversarial alliances against the US without the fear of concessions. Such support has diminished the effectiveness of US diplomatic leverage. Even more so, Russia’s dependence on Tehran’s lethal drones and ballistic missiles confirms that this partnership is not simply contractual. Rather as Grajewski writes, the two have become ‘’Partners in defiance’’, engendering an ideological arc of anti-western powers that is gaining traction along the battlefields of the Middle East.
The lasting message of Bush’s speech was his resolute labelling of terrorism as a calculated tool to antagonise and destabilise the West, underscoring the urgency to counter its strategic networks. Whilst Bush’s critics hastily vilified abstract social problems as responsible for terrorism, we see the reverberations of such blindless 20 years later. Iran’s collusion with Russia to continue incursions in Ukraine and China’s war crimes against the Uigur Muslims presents a harrowing reality. Biden’s handling of the invasion of Ukraine has created an ideological vacuum for Russia and Iran to cosy up over a mutually beneficial relationship against the West. The overlapping threat of hostile states and their terrorist allies were scoffed at in 2002 but reading between the lines of Bush’s speech lies the wise and trainset insights that must be repurposed. Bush’s warning worked to instil vigilance against the perilous threats of hostile states and their terrorist allies – a message now strikingly relevant given how Bidens ailing policies have emboldened Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The US needs to wake up and internalise these warnings, because this time they may not have the choice to withdraw
