The Russia-Ukraine conflict that has been going on since 2014(after the Russian annexation of Crimea) has recently intensified into war. The roots of that conflict existed when Ukraine expressed the will to affiliate more with NATO and the European Union which Russia had to oppose.
Since February 24, 2022, when the most recent conflict broke out, Ukrainians have suffered a lot from the multifaceted Russian aggression-war in Ukraine, Widespread deaths and injuries have been reported, Abuse of human rights, loss of homes, critical infrastructure was ruined, western countries imposed lots of economic sanctions on Russia which turned the economy of Russia upside down and created a humanitarian crisis.
As the conflict becomes intense so does the fear of the broader conflict engulfing the entire world, but this conflict begs the question: Is the Russia-Ukraine conflict the next world war conflict with a nuclear threat?
In this regard, the nuclear use threat from Russia came us earlier than the prospect of Russian natives receiving strikes from American missiles based in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made one nuclear threat or another several times since the Ukrainian conflict started and a long time before the US and its allies commenced arming and supporting Ukraine with military aid.
He has made remarks like, “We will do whatever we deem necessary to protect our people and our land” and “No one will intimidate us” as an indication of the atomic option. In addition, perhaps the most applicable Russian nuclear doctrine strategy is the use of atomic weapons against a nation that employs conventional think tanks that attempt to destroy the state.
All along, the West has provided military assistance to Ukraine in its battle with the Russians and its heavy arsenal of weapons. But, it’s essential to understand though that the US and its allies have been for some time now very cautiously working towards any measures that could set off a nuclear warhead in Russia. Weapons and Military assistance to Ukraine were made to fit within the framework of reciprocity where only the self-determination of Ukraine was the target without touching Russian soil. Only Russia issued threats of treating it as aggression from the West and NATO taking appropriate action.
On November 17, Russia gained the upper hand as it managed to fire over 200 missiles, making this the largest attack Ukraine had seen in the last two years. US President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to retaliate against Russia using ATACMs and missiles from Britain and France. Ukraine’s missiles attack only One week later on November 19, Ukraine winter use of six ATACMS missiles against the borders of Russia in Bryansk’s southern edge. This was a dramatic departure from previous policies where such policies were not allowed.
After the US shifted its policies, Russia responded by changing that nuclear doctrine saying if a nuclear-backed state enables an attack from a non-nuclear state, then Russia will treat that as an attack from all nations assisting the non-nuclear nation. Further, in response to Ukraine utilizing missiles from America and Britain, Russia responded with a different ballistic missile. Putin’s missiles, known as Oreshnik, have a reported flight speed of ten times the speed of sound and can be deployed to retaliate against any Ukrainian ally nation whose missiles have been used against Russia.
Putin cautioned that the modern missiles would easily penetrate any U.S. air defense systems and that Russia would warn Ukraine before launching any further strikes against it using the Oreshnik to evacuate civilians to safety. Russia’s strategy in this war is to target enemies’ energy, military, and economic sectors without slaughtering the civilians of Ukraine.
These developments have however raised questions amongst experts and policy makers because nuclear escalation would pose a threat to global security and peace in the world. Great diplomacy and assistance globally are essential to control nuclear escalation and restore the country to peace.
In the end, a military dictation to the conflict is ruled out as that would worsen the situation. Rather, angles through diplomatic means and compromises on both sides may pave the way for negotiations and a final resolution. Nonetheless, certain factors act as restraints concerning peace talks and the conclusion of mutual agreements and this leads to further postponement of a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
Currently, Russia occupies around 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. These areas include: Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. However, Ukraine still claims sovereignty over these territories and considers them temporarily occupied.
Rather worrying is the fact that the mutually contradictory conditions for a ceasefire and a peaceful resolution to the conflict are detrimental to the situation. Putin has set certain conditions for a ceasefire and peaceful settlement, including Ukraine‘s liberation from its desire to become a NATO member and its refusal to return Ukrainian territory gained by Russia during the war. In return, Russia will provide guarantees for Ukrainian territorial security and sovereignty and help them with infrastructure rebuilding.
However, President Zelensky has acceded to the first condition, vowing that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO in exchange for security and sovereignty. However, they will not accept a ceasefire without first recovering their land. This resulted in a complicated situation that eventually created hurdles to a peaceful settlement.
As a result, the threat of nuclear war between Russia and Ukraine is going to worsen, and pose a danger to the entire world. The destruction caused by the use of nuclear weapons would be devastating and would cause suffering to humans as well as destroy the environment.
So, therefore, dark clouds hang over us, waiting for the right time to unfold and cause vast destruction. The social order would be upset and there would be a total breakdown of economies around the globe causing massive starvation and disease for a great number of years. This is a risk that makes no sense, and we have to resolve this issue peacefully.
