For decades, the United States has been a cornerstone of global order, guiding the world through its grand strategy rooted in multilateralism, economic leadership, and military dominance. This strategy, crafted in the aftermath of World War II, ensured national security while fostering global stability, cooperation, and prosperity. However, the presidency of Donald Trump (2017–2021) marked a departure from this long-standing approach, introducing a disruptive “America First” doctrine. The potential reelection of Trump in 2024 could further complicate America’s global leadership role, leaving significant implications for international order and the future of its grand strategy.
Foundations of American Grand Strategy
American grand strategy has historically relied on three foundational pillars: Multilateralism, Economic Leadership, and Military Dominance. These elements have enabled the U.S. to maintain global preeminence, shape international norms, and address challenges like security and economic growth.
Multilateralism lies at the heart of this strategy. By leading alliances such as NATO and supporting institutions like the United Nations, the U.S. amplified its influence and advanced its values globally. These frameworks fostered trust, managed conflicts, countered transnational threats, and institutionalized collective action, ensuring regional stability and promoting a rule-based international order.
Economic Leadership established the U.S. as a driver of global prosperity. Through initiatives like the Bretton Woods system, the Marshall Plan, and trade agreements, the U.S. promoted free trade, stabilized markets, and strengthened alliances. Its position as the epicenter of the global economy, coupled with innovation in critical sectors, further reinforced its geopolitical clout and leadership in fostering economic growth.
Military Dominance remains the most visible pillar. With global bases, forward-deployed troops, and advanced weaponry, the U.S. deters adversaries, reassures allies, and ensures homeland security. Its strategic positioning, robust defense spending, and qualitative superiority underpin its ability to address threats and maintain stability worldwide. From countering communism to tackling terrorism, its military capabilities have been central to conflict resolution and global security.
Together, these pillars have upheld a democratic, stable, and prosperous global order. Their success has relied on bipartisan support and adaptability, ensuring the endurance of U.S. leadership amidst shifting domestic and global dynamics.
Trump’s Disruption of Grand Strategy
Donald Trump’s presidency marked a significant departure from the traditional pillars of American grand strategy, replacing cooperative leadership with a transactional and nationalistic approach under his “America First” doctrine. This shift prioritized short-term domestic gains over the long-term stability of the global order, challenging the foundations that had sustained U.S. dominance for decades.
Multilateralism, a cornerstone of U.S. global strategy, suffered considerably under Trump’s tenure. His public criticism of NATO allies over defense spending and hesitancy to affirm NATO’s Article V mutual defense clause eroded trust among allies and raised doubts about the U.S.’s commitment to collective security. This unilateral approach extended to broader international agreements. Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) allowed China to expand its influence in Asia, while his exit from the Paris Climate Accords undermined global efforts to address climate change and diminished America’s leadership on critical international issues. These actions alienated allies, weakened collaborative problem-solving, and emboldened strategic competitors like China and Russia.
Economically, Trump’s policies reflected a zero-sum outlook that framed international trade agreements as inherently exploitative. His imposition of tariffs on traditional allies and renegotiation of NAFTA into the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) strained relationships with key economic partners. Although these moves resonated with domestic constituencies, they disrupted the cooperative frameworks that had been instrumental in maintaining U.S. economic leadership and stability in global markets.
Simultaneously, Trump’s approach weakened America’s soft power. Long seen as a global advocate for democracy and human rights, the U.S. under Trump appeared inconsistent in its support for these values. His open admiration for authoritarian leaders and diminished emphasis on promoting democratic ideals tarnished America’s moral authority. This erosion of credibility made it harder for the U.S. to lead by example, emboldening adversaries while leaving allies uncertain about its commitment to shared principles.
Trump’s unpredictable style of diplomacy further compounded these challenges. Abrupt decisions and conflicting messages created global uncertainty, while treating traditional allies as burdens rather than partners fractured longstanding coalitions. This fragmentation made collective action on critical issues, such as countering China’s rise or addressing the Ukraine conflict, more difficult and less effective.
Trump’s presidency disrupted the continuity of American grand strategy, undermining the very pillars that had secured its global leadership. In doing so, it left a legacy of weakened alliances, diminished influence, and heightened uncertainty in international affairs.
The Future of Grand Strategy in the Trump Era
As Donald Trump sets his sights on a return to the presidency in 2024, the future of American grand strategy hangs in the balance. His re-election would likely intensify the ongoing shift away from traditional U.S. leadership, potentially redefining America’s role in the global order and carrying profound implications for international stability.
A second Trump term could deepen fractures in U.S. alliances, further eroding trust among NATO members and other longstanding partners. As allies grapple with uncertainty about America’s commitment to collective security, they may increasingly seek alternative leadership from powers like China or the European Union. This realignment could complicate efforts to address global challenges, from climate change to geopolitical conflicts, as the absence of cohesive leadership undermines the ability to coordinate effective responses. Meanwhile, rivals such as China and Russia would likely seize the opportunity to expand their influence, with initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative reshaping global economic and political dynamics in regions such as Asia and Africa.
Domestically driven priorities under Trump’s “America First” agenda could signal a retreat from the United States’ traditional international responsibilities. This pivot toward isolationism would diminish America’s capacity to lead on pressing global challenges, including public health crises, cyber-security, and transnational threats. As the U.S. steps back, authoritarian regimes may feel emboldened, filling the void left by America’s reduced presence and further destabilizing the liberal international order.
Perhaps the most consequential impact of a Trump return would be on the global perception of democratic values. His admiration for autocratic leaders and his transactional style of governance have already called into question the U.S.’s role as a champion of democracy and human rights. A renewed embrace of such approaches could inspire other nations to drift toward authoritarianism, weakening global democratic norms and reducing trust in the U.S. as a moral and political leader.
Trump’s potential return to the White House presents a critical juncture for American grand strategy. It raises urgent questions about whether the United States will continue to lead in fostering global cooperation or retreat into a more insular and unpredictable role, with lasting consequences for the world order.
Despite disruptions during Trump’s presidency, the pillars of American grand strategy remain resilient. NATO’s institutional ties and the U.S.’s unmatched economic and military resources ensure its continued relevance on the global stage. However, restoring trust requires reaffirming alliances, reengaging with multilateral institutions, and prioritizing democracy and human rights to counter authoritarian influence.
To address emerging challenges, the U.S. must adapt its strategy. Strengthening ties in the Asia-Pacific and countering China’s ambitions, while leading efforts on climate change, cyber-security, and pandemics, will be crucial. Balancing traditional values with innovative approaches is key to sustaining U.S. leadership in a shifting global order.
Donald Trump’s presidency disrupted American grand strategy, challenging its global leadership and introducing unpredictability. A second term could deepen these shifts, complicating the U.S.’s role in a changing world. Yet, the pillars of U.S. strategy—multilateralism, economic leadership, and military dominance—remain essential for global stability. To maintain its influence, the U.S. must revitalize these foundations, balancing domestic priorities with international responsibilities. By addressing past setbacks and adapting to new challenges, principled leadership can ensure America’s continued role as a stabilizing force in world affairs.
