Donald Trump will return to the White House with the win of the November 5, 2024, US presidential election. Along with indicating a change in American domestic and foreign policy, this triumph predicted significant effects on U.S.-India ties. Mutual respect, strategic objectives, and strong personal chemistry define the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Influenced by global geopolitics and internal issues, the dynamic between two leaders taking the stage in 2024 seems ready for a phase marked by increased cooperation and possible obstacles.
A strong US-India bilateral partnership was laid a primary basis during Trump’s first term, 2017–2021. High-profile events included the 2019 Howdy Modi meeting in Houston and the 2020 Namaste Trump event in Ahmedabad, representing their close cooperation on strategic, economic, and ideological fronts. Trump and Modi’s governments worked closely on defence, with significant arms purchases and collaborative military operations, including Japan as a participant in the Malabar Naval Exercise. Moreover, Trump supported India’s counterterrorism initiatives, especially following the Pulwama tragedy in 2019, highlighting a shared commitment to regional security.
Many essential elements are expected to influence US-India ties in Trump’s next term. With Trump perhaps adjusting trade policies that appeal to Modi’s “Make in India” program, thereby somewhat matching with Trump’s “America First” policy, economic priorities will take the top stage. Protectionist impulses and the search for more general economic cooperation must be balanced, nonetheless, in a sensitive way. Given growing worries about China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific area, defence and strategic alliances will also receive much attention. Trump’s leadership is expected to increase cooperation, energise the Quad alliance of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, and improve regional stability. Furthermore, as global technological competitiveness increases, the United States and India are positioned to enhance their cooperation in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and developments in 5G/6G networks. These efforts will mostly depend on common values about data privacy and digital sovereignty.
Particularly concerning China’s strategic response, the revived Trump-Modi alliance will probably have significant geopolitical consequences and challenges. Beijing would have to rethink its objectives in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific as the United States and India strengthen their cooperation. Aiming to offset the improved US-India relationship, this could drive changes in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and other critical Asian initiatives. Russia’s stance will also be crucial as Trump’s policies towards Moscow will be widely watched, given Russia’s close ties to China and India. Should Trump seek to strengthen the Western alliance in countering Russian influence, Modi’s historical ties to Russia could come under fresh strain.
Furthermore, looking at Pakistan’s role in this changing geopolitical scene is crucial. Under the previous administration of Trump, Pakistan was taken firmly under control, especially with regional terrorism activity. A fresh focus on strategic alignment with India could help to isolate Pakistan further, therefore influencing the security dynamics of South Asia and reevaluating regional power balances.
Under Trump’s new term, prospective areas of further cooperation between the United States and India cover defence cooperation, climate policy, and energy security. With the US primarily providing liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil, energy cooperation has become a primary focus of bilateral relations. Trump’s comeback to power might increase these alliances, aiding India’s quest for diverse energy sources. Regarding climate policy, Modi’s dedication to renewable energy should open doors for positive communication even if Trump’s past position sometimes contradicts world climate action. India’s big solar projects might complement some American goals about energy independence. Furthermore, collaborative efforts in counterterrorism and developments in defence technologies are probably going forward. Improved military technology transfers and higher procurement by India from the United States would boost India’s strategic capability, boosting regional security and shared defence goals.
The new Trump government might bring in a time when India acquires more power to influence political events in South Asia. India might be positioned as a regional leader to handle political and security concerns more independently if Trump’s probable focus on strategic alliances and countering China’s influence drives change. This change would indicate strategic support of India’s regional leadership function, enabling it to have more impact on issues involving neighbouring countries and regional conflicts. With India positioned as a significant regional peace and security actor, such a shift could reshape the power relations in South Asia.
Trade policies will remain a significant component of US-India ties throughout Trump’s new term since bilateral talks have always revolved mostly around trade issues. Previous conflicts over tariffs on technological products and agricultural goods could resurface, undermining smooth economic connections. Nonetheless, since both Trump and Modi are committed to economic nationalism, these talks might open the path for creative and sensible ideas that compromise national interests and shared advantages. Furthermore, supply chains and investment policies will be significant. Trump’s government might fit Modi’s vision of India being a worldwide manufacturing centre, which complements the general US goal of supply chain diversification and less reliance on China. This alignment might create fresh opportunities for cooperation in infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology, thus strengthening national economic resilience for both countries.
If Trump resurrects a unilateralist foreign policy strategy, his comeback to power would cause a change in world alliances and possibly damage ties with classic Western allies. However, India’s growing global profile places it as a possible bridge in these dynamics and helps it build fresh alliances, including the I2U2, which comprises India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States. Through cooperative efforts, this new structure could be critical in tackling regional and global issues. Furthermore, Modi’s view of India as a leader of the Global South could fit Trump’s approach to non-Western countries, encouraging strategic alliances and opening the path for cooperative development initiatives in areas like Africa and Latin America. Emphasising diverse and multipolar cooperation, such synergies could increase both countries’ influence and help reconfigure the global power structures.
The second chapter of Trump and Modi’s cooperation will probably present complexity and possibilities. Two leaders renowned for their forceful rhetoric and bold initiatives might have their alignment turn US-India relations into a powerhouse of strategic and financial might. Still, juggling personal needs, world expectations, and shared interests will be difficult. This alliance may reshape regional power dynamics and impact how the world negotiates a new period of changing alliances and economic recalibration for global watchers.
