With the US presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024, the question remains: Who will pave the way to the White House? Although several surveys indicated that democratic candidate Kamala Harris has a minor edge, there is still a great chance that Donald Trump might resurface as a potent and divisive player in American politics over the last ten days before the election. Though he is surrounded by controversy, Trump’s impact persists; many think he has a legitimate chance of securing the office of presidency once more. Vice President Kamala Harris represents the Democrats in the election. Harris confronts particular difficulties as the first woman of Indian and Jamaican origin to run for the presidency. Given Harris’s candidature and the more significant political dynamics in the United States, this writing will examine the main elements that may support a Trump win in 2024.
Trump’s committed and energised followers will be his most vital asset approaching the election. Notwithstanding the legal problems and scandals, his fans have stayed passionately devoted to him. Trump’s appeal comes from his populist, anti-establishment rhetoric, which appeals to working-class people feeling let down by Washington’s political elites. His capacity to appeal to these frustrations helps him to have a close relationship with a good portion of the voters.
This base will probably show in great numbers, especially in important battleground states where every vote counts. Trump’s capacity to inspire his fans to turn up at the polls might be crucial in a highly polarised political environment when many voters are driven by allegiance to their candidate rather than party affiliation.
A significant turning point in American politics is Kamala Harris’s candidature as a woman of Indian and Jamaican background. It could offer unique challenges, though, which might affect the election. The United States has never chosen a female president, notwithstanding the country’s development. For many voters—especially in more conservative areas—gender prejudice still exists. Even as society views gender change, some people may still have misgivings about choosing a woman to occupy the highest post in the country.
Apart from her gender, Harris’s Indian and Jamaican background might influence her attractiveness to particular voters. Although the US is growing increasingly varied, some voters might find choosing a president devoid of US ancestry unsettling. Trump has a history of appealing to nationalist feelings and could conduct his campaign in a way that gently (or overtly) plays on these prejudices, presenting himself as the candidate standing for “traditional” American ideals.
These elements might restrict Harris’s capacity to increase her appeal outside the Democratic base, particularly in the crucial swing states likely to determine the election outcome. Trump may leverage these weaknesses to inspire his followers and profit from voters’ uncertainty about Harris’s candidacy.
Emphasising economic populism and pledging to bring jobs back to the United States and place “America First,” Trump’s first term message was one of many working-class voters in areas such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan—who felt left behind by globalisation—found resonance in his focus on trade protectionism, tax reduction, and deregulation. One of the main reasons Trump won in 2016 was his ability to project himself as the working-class champion.
For many voters in 2024, economic concerns still take the top stage. Rising inflation has significantly affected middle- and lower-income Americans in housing and energy. Many people are unhappy with the economic path of the Democratic leadership. Therefore, Trump will probably centre his campaign on a pledge to bring economic recovery back and lower the financial load on ordinary Americans. Trump may get support from his base independents and disgruntled Democrats if he can persuade people that his policies would provide stability and economic revival.
Another critical component benefiting Trump in 2024 might be foreign policy. Voters who support a more isolationist foreign policy were drawn to Trump’s “America First” approach, which emphasised nationalism, scepticism of global alliances, and a tough stance on China throughout his administration. Trump’s renegotiation of trade treaties like the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) Agreement and his departure from the Paris Climate Accord were considered to put American interests above world obligations.
On the other hand, Harris is anticipated to concentrate on mending ties and interacting with foreign institutions like Biden. Globalism and international accords scare many people, especially those in more conservative and rural areas. Trump’s nationalist foreign policy approach may once more draw supporters who believe the US should prioritise its interests instead of assuming a significant role internationally.
Furthermore, leaving a residual impression of democratic leadership mishandling foreign affairs is the messy exit from Afghanistan during the Biden presidency in 2021. Trump might present this as proof that his leadership is more forceful and decisive in handling foreign problems, establishing himself as the candidate most suited to safeguard American interests overseas.
Around themes of identity politics, race, and cultural values, the US political scene has grown progressively divisive. Trump has a proven capacity to fan these differences and unite his followers around defending “traditional” American values. Whether it is arguments on immigration, racial relations, or gender identification, Trump has positioned himself as the guardian of conservative values against what he and his followers view as the excesses of the left.
As a woman of colour, Harris will probably be central to these cultural discussions. Framing his campaign as a struggle to uphold the “traditional” social and cultural order of the nation, Trump might utilise identity politics to inspire his followers in the last few days. This approach worked for him in 2016; it might be successful again in 2024, significantly if social and cultural concerns still shape public conversation.
One of Trump’s most significant strengths is his capacity to control media narratives. From social media to campaign rallies to television appearances, Trump has shown an unparalleled ability to grab attention across his political career. Often avoiding mainstream media criticism, Trump’s direct communication with his base helps him to explain problems in a way that appeals to his constituency. Harris has not shown the same capacity to influence media narratives, and Biden’s communication approach has been attacked for missing the vitality required to excite voters. Trump’s communications techniques might provide him an advantage in relating to voters in a media-driven political milieu.
Finally, the winner of the president is much influenced by the way the US electoral system is set up, the Electoral College. Though he lost the popular vote, Trump gained the presidency in 2016 by guaranteeing important battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 2024 may see the same situation playing out.
Swing states have a disproportionate influence under the Electoral College. Hence, Trump’s campaign will probably concentrate mainly on these areas, aiming at rural and working-class voters, which is essential to guarantee success. Should Trump be able to galvanise his supporters in these states again—primarily because of Harris’s possible weaknesses—he may win the election even without a majority of the popular vote.
Though the political terrain of the 2024 US presidential contest is complicated, numerous elements could point to Donald Trump’s potential victory. Kamala Harris’s struggles as a candidate, economic concerns, Trump’s nationalist foreign policies, and his capacity to control media narratives all help him from a loyal standpoint. Moreover, the Electoral College system offers Trump a route to recover the presidency without necessarily obtaining the popular vote. Trump is still a significant player in American politics despite his legal problems and scandals; the abovementioned elements might provide him a reasonable opportunity to win the November 5, 2024, election.
