The Syrian civil war has ravaged the country for more than a decade, sparking a regional humanitarian crisis and drawing actors from different parts of the world, from the United States to Russia, with varying agendas to the region. The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring, awakened the wave of revolution in North Africa and the Middle East with the agenda to overthrow the powerful, long-lasting, and violent regimes in countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Libya and Yemen. When the revolution reached Syria, the government focused on replacing the authoritarian regime under President Bashar al-Assad. However, the revolution, which started as a peaceful protest, soon turned into a full-fledged civil war that has not ended. Despite other internal issues, the conflict sparked a massive migration out of Syria, displacing its people in its neighbouring counties and further penetrating European countries as well. The refugee crisis in the present time has started to create disputes in the host country’s society and economy.
Critical actors in the conflict
The Syrian conflict has drawn in a wide array of states and non-state actors, each of the actors pursuing their strategic interests, which has further complicated the war. The Syrian government controlled by President Bashar al-Assad is mainly supported by Russia and Iran; while facing opposition from various rebel factions, some of which are backed by the United States and Turkey, Russia stands firmly behind Assad while also claiming to oppose extremist groups like ISIS. The United States has supported moderate religious groups and opposed both the Assad government and ISIS, along with other Islamic extremist groups In the region. Turkey, part of the United States-led coalition, has opposed Assad but also targeted Kurdish groups in Syria and and backs US led groups in Syria. Meanwhile, Iran backs Assad while fighting Sunni insurgents, including ISIS and other extremist groups of alliances and enmities combined with the involvement of state actors like ISIS, establishing a caliphate, which has worsened the region’s instability, leading to significant economic devastation and refugee crisis.
Refugee Crisis and Host Nations Strain
The migration of Syrians to neighbouring countries has significantly impacted their hosts, strained economies and heightening social tensions. The influx of refugees has put additional pressure on economic resources and contributed to social friction in several host nations The flow of refugees into host countries has caused a slight decrease in employment opportunities for local workers, particularly in the informal sector. Each host country’s unique social, political, and economic conditions shape its approach to managing the challenges brought by this trend. However, the reality remains that even a relatively prosperous country like Turkey faces immense pressure to manage the growing refugee crisis, which has only intensified over time.
As per data by UNHRC, Syrian refugees are migrating to 130 different countries, but the most popular ones are the neighbouring countries like Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Turkey has alone hosted a larger population of Syrian refugees of 3.2 million. However, moving out of the war-torn country, only five per cent of the refugees live in refugee camps, and the rest live in rural and urban setups, with most of the refugees living below the poverty line. The migration has not improved the lives of the refugees in the host countries but rather deteriorated. In examining the case of Lebanon, around 90 per cent of Syrian refugees in the country live below the poverty line and are solely dependent on humanitarian assistance for their survival. In Jordan, more than 93 per cent of Syrian refugees have been reported to be in debt to cover their basic needs. Moreover, the refugees in Turkey cannot even take care of their monthly expenses and basic needs. This economic downturn has exposed them to multiple protection risks, such as child labour, gender-based violence, early marriage and other forms of exploitation.
The forced migration of Syria has also reached European countries along with countries like Afghanistan joining in recently. According to the European Union asylum agency, authorities received around 85000 asylum applications in May 2024. The Syrians continued to apply the most among all citizens, lodging 12000 or 14% of all the applications. Similarly, the largest group of beneficiaries of protection status in the EU in 2015 remained citizens from Syria.
Syrian Refugees in Europe
The migrants have posed a significant challenge to European societies and have raised serious concerns over their medium and long-term impact on economic infrastructural and changing regulations of the border. The public opinion based on a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center highlights that having around 1.3 million migrants, mainly from the war-torn nations of Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, has significantly influenced the perception of the European Union’s handling of the refugee crisis. This surge has contributed to widespread disapproval among European citizens of the EU’s management strategies. The critical concern that has arisen owing to many of Europe is that the high number of incoming migrants and refugees will result in an increase in terrorist activities and will encumber their country as they believe that the refugees are taking their jobs and the social benefits that should be allocated for its citizens. The survey also indicates that negative perceptions of refugees are influenced by religious affiliations, as native citizens tend to hold unfavourable opinions about them. It also plays a key role, as Europeans fail to recognise that the growing diversity of the country’s population due to migrants does not necessarily improve the country. Regardless of whether Europeans perceive refugees as a threat, believe they contribute to increased terrorism and crime, or think they take jobs, there is a widespread consensus that the European Union is inadequately managing the refugee crisis.
Economic implications for Syria
The Syrian conflict has put the nation into great economic jeopardy and has impacted the country’s financial landscape. Syria has drastically shifted from its prior economic standing to becoming a low-income country since 2018. As a result of the conflict, the living conditions have drastically come down, making it hard for the people in the country to live. The Syrian pound has lost 99% of its value against the dollar since the start of the war. This economic downfall is also a significant reason for Syrians not to return home from their host countries.
The ongoing conflict makes it challenging to assess Syria’s economy accurately. Without reliable data, experts are often forced to make substantial assumptions about the extent of Syria’s economic deterioration. Consequently, looking ahead to the future of the Syrian economy, the recovery of the economy is expected to be slow and time-consuming. This detouring economic situation in Syria makes it unfavourable for Syrian migrants to return home soon.
Conclusion
The Syrian war started as part of the Arab Spring and has evolved to become a protracted conflict with devastating consequences for both the country and its neighbouring regions. The war involving various actors has not only destroyed the Syrian economy but has also displaced millions of people, leading to a never-ending refugee crisis. Neighbouring countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan bear the brunt of this crisis, struggling to accommodate millions of refugees, many of whom live below the poverty line. This mass displacement has extended to Europe, where concerns about economic stability, terrorism, and social integration have intensified.
As the war continues without a clear resolution, its economic, social, and political impacts persist both within Syria and internationally. As the Palestine issue is gaining momentum in the present time, adequate attention is not given to the refugee crisis in Syria. The international players should address the humanitarian needs, stabilise the host countries, and seek a peaceful resolution.