The United Nations Security Council strongly condemned North Korea’s launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile on December 18, 2023. This launch was considered a serious escalation that threatened regional stability, particularly as the missile reached an altitude of 6.500 kilometers before falling into international waters. Concerns deepened as North Korea had previously succeeded in testing a new engine for a medium-range ballistic missile, adding a new dimension to their potential nuclear threat (United Nations, 2023). This event captured global attention as it ignited simmering military tensions at the Korean Peninsula, reaching a peak given North Korea’s known provocations. This step undoubtedly triggered global concern, including a strong response from neighboring countries, South Korea and Japan, which immediately heightened their military readiness.
The nuclear threat looming over the Korean Peninsula is not only a problem for East Asia but also resonates on the global stage, including Southeast Asia. The escalating tensions and the potential outbreak of armed conflict could shake the foundations of international security and peace. In this context, Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, cannot remain passive. Stability in this region depends on how these countries respond to threats emerging from other regions. Therefore, prudent and effective diplomatic measures are becoming increasingly important. These efforts are not merely aimed at curbing escalation but also at strengthening the position of smaller states in the global geopolitical arena.
The nuclear conflict at the Korean Peninsula continues to pose a significant challenge to regional and global stability. This issue not only concerns North and South Korea but also involves global powers. The long-standing tensions since the Korean War in the 1950s have supported a fragile condition, as the war was never officially ended with a peace pact but only through an armistice (Jun, 2024). From a foreign policy perspective, the approach to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula cannot be pursued solely through rhetoric or military sanctions. As highlighted in a New York Times article (2018), the elimination of nuclear weapons from North Korea requires a broader and more inclusive diplomatic strategy. This includes ongoing dialogue and recognition of the security concerns of all parties involved (Lewis, 2018). Moreover, the failure to reach a comprehensive agreement could lead to the risk of nuclear war, which would not only affect the region but also global peace as a whole. This perspective shows that structured diplomatic engagement and international cooperation in dealing with the issue of denuclearization are important.
Amid this geopolitical complexity, the Biden administration has renewed its strategic approach to Asia, with a focus on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. Biden emphasized the importance of re-establishing alliances with East Asian countries. To work with allies and bring North Korea back to the negotiating table. However, it turns out that there are challenges that lie in achieving this goal without provoking Pyongyang. Of course, it is also able to maintain the security balance in a very dynamic region (Moriyasu, 2021). Given the complexity of the nuclear conflict on the Korean Peninsula, a foreign policy perspective is needed but now this perspective requires innovation in preventive diplomacy because it still does not produce enough solutions. It is expected that the innovation can create efforts to build a more inclusive regional security framework.
Countries in the region, including non-traditional actors such as ASEAN need to play a more active role in mediation and cross-regional diplomacy, rather than relying solely on traditional alliances and bilateral approaches. This may include efforts to set up multilateral dialogue forums involving all stakeholders, including North Korea, to increase mutual understanding and trust. This strategy should also consider the use of new technologies for transparency and verification. The impact on Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, could be a serious threat to national and regional security. One of the risks that may affect trade, the economy, and political stability. Instability can reduce foreign investment flows, hamper economic growth, and create uncertainty in regional markets. These geopolitical implications require countries in the region to take more proactive diplomatic steps and play an active role in maintaining stability and preventing the spread of conflict.
These steps are essential to ensure security and prosperity throughout Southeast Asia. The escalating tensions at the Korean Peninsula have far-reaching implications, beyond the direct threat to the parties to the conflict. For countries not directly involved in the conflict, the biggest risk is the disruption of international trade flows. Southeast Asia continues to rely on maritime trade routes through the South China Sea and its surrounding waters. If threats occur and war breaks out, it could result in significant disruption. Blockades or military interventions in these strategic routes will affect the supply of goods, increase logistics costs, and fatally harm the economies of both countries involved and not involved in the conflict (Zuhri and Hanifa, 2017). This may also trigger energy and food crises if distribution channels are halted or disrupted. Additionally, the political uncertainty arising from the conflict at the Korean Peninsula could lead global investors to withdraw their capital from Southeast Asian markets (Divergences, 2023). Countries with growing economies, such as Indonesia, could face currency depreciation, rising inflation, and economic stagnation. Investments in infrastructure and the industrial sector could stall, leading to increased unemployment and worsening socio-economic conditions in the region. Political instability in one country could also spread to neighboring countries, creating a domino effect that undermines overall regional stability. Nuclear war, if it occurs, will bring immeasurable environmental impacts from radiation to ecosystem destruction, ultimately worsening humanitarian conditions across the region.
The idea of ​​denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has different perceptions among key figures, especially Kim Jong Un and Joe Biden, reflecting fundamental differences on their priorities and strategies. For Kim Jong Un, the nuclear program is a central pillar of North Korea’s national security strategy, used not only to counter external threats but also as a symbol of the regime’s strength and legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. It also serves as. Biden, on the other hand, believes that denuclearization is a key step to reduce global threats and strengthen stability in East Asia, but he has adopted a more diplomatic and multilateral approach (Angela et.al, 2024). In this situation, Indonesia can play a more active mediation role in resolving the deadlock through creative diplomacy that emphasizes a win-win negotiation approach. For example, Indonesia can offer to act as a mediator in a negotiated dialogue and provide economic or technical assistance to North Korea in exchange for a more concrete commitment to the denuclearization process.
This approach could include bartering specific needs, such as much-needed agricultural and health aid to North Korea, in exchange for measurable nuclear capability reductions that are monitored by the international community. In addition, Indonesia can initiate international cooperation focused on research and education that will provide detailed insights into the potential impacts of a nuclear conflict on both the countries directly involved and neighboring countries. For example, Indonesia can lead a research project that examines the environmental, social, and economic damage caused using nuclear weapons and develop locally applicable mitigation strategies. Such research can be initiated through collaboration with academic institutions in the Southeast Asian region and presented at international forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum or even a special session of the United Nations (UN). This approach will not only strengthen Indonesia’s position as a neutral diplomatic actor but also contribute significantly to efforts towards stability and peace in the Asia-Pacific region.
