Liberal Leaders cornered by The Far-Rights
Preliminary results from the 2024 European Parliament elections indicate a sharp decline for the Greens and Liberals (Greens & Renew), a rise in independent votes, and a significant gain in seats for the far-right (Conservatives and Reformists & Identity and Democracy). This victory has been dubbed “Europe’s Trump Moment.”. Eight years ago, radical nationalist parties stirred British voters to support Brexit, followed shortly by Trump’s rise to power across the Atlantic. Now, history seems to be repeating itself, with the far-right’s triumph in Europe potentially setting the stage for Trump’s possible re-election in the United States.
The EU elections serve as a referendum on the public’s satisfaction with their governments’ policies and a test of the popularity of European leaders and parties. Therefore, the significant victories of far-right parties, particularly in Germany and France, and the notable increase in their seats, especially for the radical Identity and Democracy (ID) group, reflect widespread European discontent with predominantly liberal leaders and their policies on a range of issues from immigration and the economy to environmental policies. In foreign and security policy, traditional and liberal parties appear unable to address Europe’s challenges, especially the ongoing war in Ukraine, and have reached an impasse. French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent warning about the potential death of Europe seems to have emboldened radical nationalists rather than awakened Europhiles, reinforcing the belief in the inefficacy of traditional institutions.
The success of far-right parties in Europe sends a clear message for the upcoming U.S. presidential election between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. For Biden, the defeat of liberal leaders in Europe is unfortunate and raises concerns about American voters’ potential reactions to his policies on domestic issues like immigration and climate change, as well as foreign policy challenges like countering Russia. For Trump, however, the European Parliament election results are promising, suggesting that American voters may follow a similar pattern. European far-right parties share many of Trump’s slogans and ideas, including populist patriotism, opposition to the EU, anti-globalization, hostility towards immigrants, economic protectionism, and condemnation of the ruling elite. Like Trump, these parties also advocate for a form of isolationism in foreign policy.
This situation has placed liberal leaders on both sides of the Atlantic under increasing pressure, made worse by the potential return of Trump. Among the “Group of Seven” leaders, only Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, jubilant over her party’s victory, is experiencing stable conditions. Meanwhile, the significant victory of the far-right National Rally led by the experienced Le Pen and the young Bardella has shocked French President Macron, prompting him to consider the gamble of dissolving parliament and calling for early elections. Macron, like his American counterpart, seeks to use the slogan of protecting (French) democracy to push back against the far-right. In Germany, another key EU member, Olaf Scholz, and his coalition of Social Democrats and Greens are under intense pressure from the far-right, particularly the AfD. In Britain, Kier Starmer faces an unstable and unpromising situation, and Justin Trudeau in Canada is also struggling with significantly diminished popularity.
Although it may still be premature to declare the arrival of “Europe’s Trump Moment,” the recent European Parliament elections have shown that the persistent decline in the popularity and votes of liberal and traditional European parties, coupled with the increasing public support for far-right parties and groups, has gained significant momentum. Notable victories for these parties across Western Europe, from France and Germany to Belgium and Austria, serve as evidence. Currently, in terms of total seats, these parties constitute the second-largest group in the European Parliament. While policymaking remains in the hands of the centrist right and the so-called “Grand Coalition,” the far-right now has a better position to impose its priorities.
The larger transformation, however, is yet to come: the potential victory of these parties in national parliamentary and presidential elections, resulting in far-right control of the executive branches in more European countries. Such victories would lead to increased influence of these parties within the main decision-making body of the EU, the European Council. At that point, it could be claimed that liberal leaders in Europe have been thoroughly cornered, with far-right leaders taking the helm of decision-making in Europe. Europe’s Trump Moment has not yet arrived, but the recent elections have brought the continent closer to that moment than ever before. Should this coincide with a possible Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Macron’s nightmare of a dying Europe may become a reality.
