The Chaotic State of French Politics and the Future of Le Pen’s Far-Right Movement

Champagnes were ready and the party was supposed to start when the clock struck eight in the evening. Yet, when the time finally came, not even a single cheer was heard.

Champagnes were ready and the party was supposed to start when the clock struck eight in the evening. Yet, when the time finally came, not even a single cheer was heard. The uplifting and hopeful spirit in the room was singlehandedly replaced by a more somber and upsetting mood. That was what happened in the Rassemblement National party headquarters on the night of the second round of the French legislative election.

They were hoping to celebrate their success when the result of the exit polls came. Instead, what they got was far different from what they had expected.

The final result of the second round of the French legislative election came with a surprise: the left-wing alliance, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) has secured 180 seats in the National Assembly, making it the largest alliance in the French Parliament. Meanwhile, its main rival, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), trails behind in the third place with 142 seats; just right behind Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble’s 159 seats.

It is not unknown that just a few weeks ago, the RN emerged victorious both in the European Parliament election and the first round of the surprise nationwide legislative election. The RN even scored high in almost every single opinion poll taken days leading to the second round election day. Come the election day, they could not secure the majority needed to form government.

Despite being an alliance that was hastily made, it seems like the NFP has defied all odds to become the largest party in the National Assembly, including beating the strongest of RN under its leaders: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.

How did The NFP win?

“If our candidate is running against a Macronist candidate and risks losing, we will withdraw them. We will not let the RN win a single seat.” Those are words from the NFP leader, Jean-Luc Melenchon in response to his party having to settle in second place in the election first round. Additionally, those words have become the base of the surprise win of the NFP and the loss of the RN just one week later.

Both NFP and Ensemble managed to culminate cooperation with each other in eliminating their main rival by pulling hundreds of candidates involved from triangulaire contests–a contest between three parties that have passed the first round with enough threshold. It was a careful move made to avoid splitting anti-RN votes.

According to Le Monde, 224 candidates withdrew from such contests–with 134 of them being from the NFP and 82 from the Ensemble.

For many, the thought of pulling candidates from an election might be seen as a senseless and impossible move. But with the country’s future at stake, that forced move was actually useful in holding back the far-right from achieving an overarching majority in the National Assembly.

A Cooperation, Some Celebration, Much Chaos

Even though the cooperation was a great success for the NFP–and not so great for the Ensemble, the current status of French politics is in disarray. With no alliances nor parties having received an absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly, the parliament remained hung.

There were talks between the NFP and the Ensemble to cooperate–again–in creating what President Macron described as a “solid” coalition to reach the majority needed. Yet the NFP pushed back and, therefore, reduced any possibility of the offer from happening. Other than that, the distinct difference in ideology between the two alliances will further prevent such compromise from taking place.

On July 18th, the National Assembly convened for the first time to elect its leader. An ally of Macron, Yael Braun-Pivet–who is also the outgoing leader–emerged as the winner after a neck-and-neck three-round competition against the Communist candidate, Andre Chassaigne. It has been a bold statement from the centrist Ensemble that even though they could not secure a majority in the parliament, they still have what it takes to lead in the parliament: unity and a simple majority that is enough to secure crucial votes.

The election of a centrist National Assembly president has made one thing clear: French politics will face a disharmonious future.

The Future of Rassemblement National

The shocking loss of the RN poses one question: would the result of the legislative election affect the future of the far-right movement in France? Will Le Pen abandon its party–and probably her political ambition? For that question to be answered, it is important to know the raison d’etre of RN.

Founded in 1972 under the name of Front National (FN), the party lies on social conservatism and populism. One of the many founders is Jean-Marie Le Pen, a prominent far-right politician who happened to be the father of Marine Le Pen. In 2018, the party made a rebranding effort, including changing its name to Rassemblement National. It was a hopeful attempt to “de-demonize” the party from its past.

For much of its history, RN has been known for being a party of French nationalists, Euroscepticists, anti-immigrants, and even to the extent of Islamophobics and anti-semites. Despite being quite divisive and polarizing in its campaigns, RN has gained some ground among French voters for its populist ideas. This is evident in the result of the legislative election in the past decade.

In 2017, RN only had eight seats with the popular vote of almost three million in the first round and 1,5 million in the second round. While in 2022 they managed to gain more than tenfold of the previous: 89 seats with 4 million votes in the first round and 3,5 in the second round. This year, they added another 53 seats for their party with more than 10 million votes on both rounds. With the growing trend in every election, it is safe to say that the RN will maintain its existence for years to come. Eventually, if the NFP turns out not utilizing its advantage of being the largest alliance in the National Assembly, it is also possible that Le Pen will win the Presidential Election in 2027.

In conclusion, all three main topics in this text do correspond to each other. The momentum of the NFP victory against Ensemble and RN should be well-utilized to form a working government. If not, there will be a possibility of RN snatching that momentum away and therefore fueling more chaos in the French political discourse. If that were ever to happen, the people of France should embrace themselves for the first far-right government since the Second World War.

Alfa Podo
Alfa Podo
A dedicated student of the International Relations undergraduate program at Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana, Indonesia. Passionate about issues surrounding human rights, US and European Politics, and diplomacy.