Ukraine: From Independence to Russian Special Military Operation -Who Will Win the War?

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, represented by a whole military operation on 24th of February 2022, was not a mere coincidence.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, represented by a whole military operation on 24th  of February 2022, was not a mere coincidence. The conflict belongs to the year 1991 when Ukraine announced its independence in the wake of the Soviet Union collapse. The announcement of the Ukrainian independence on 24 August 1991 was inevitable. Ukraine can be considered the last state to announce its independence from the Soviet Union in comparison to the fifteenth independent states. The independence of the new state came after bad political and financial circumstances cast a shadow on the newly independent state. After the process of independence, Ukraine had more than 5000 different types of nuclear weapons. The United States, the UK, and the new state of the Russian Federation were afraid of these heads and the nuclear weapons that the Ukrainian presidents or its leaders may take control of and threaten other states. On 5th of December 1991, the leaders of Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum with the Russian Federation, the United States, and the U.K. to join the Non-Proliferation Nuclear weapons, and Ukraine delivered all its nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation in May 1996 as the legitimate heir of the Soviet Union, against Russian promises and guarantees not to use these weapons or threaten neither Ukraine nor any other state.

After 2000, Ukraine was tending to be on the European side. This endeavor was illustrated by its attempt to join the European Union and NATO. This tendency was not accepted by the new rising president of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin because it forms a critical threat to the national security of the Russian Federation. The spark of the internal political conflict erupted on the 21 of November 2004 when demonstrations and protests broke out in Ukraine, or what is called the orange revolution, due to the alleged counterfeited results of the ballot to the two main nominees Viktor Yuchshenko and Viktor Yanukovych. The reason beyond the eruption of the orange revolution was the people’s belief that Victor Yanukivych would win the ballot, who was supported by the Russian Federation. After repeating the ballot under local observers, Yuchshenko won the ballot and Yankovitch lost gravely. In 2010, Yanukovych won the elections in the wake of the government’s failure to accomplish the fixed plan and reform the political and economic situation. His winning in the election instigated the Ukrainian people. This election within three years led to the protest again in 2014 and resulted in the ousting Yanukovych who fled to Russia. These events made the Russians compelled to intervene in Ukraine as the first, taking control of the Crimea peninsula in full with the aid of the Russian military group called Wagner and the Russian special forces. Lugansk and Donetsk located in the east of Ukraine, represented the Donbas Region, announced a revolt supported by the Russian Federation, against the central government. A referendum was conducted in the Crimea peninsula after a while, announcing its separation from Ukraine and annexation to the Russian Federation. Consequently, all these furious events were an inevitable result of what would happen later on.

By the end of 2021, the Russian Federation, represented by President Putin, provided the Europeans and Americans with security guarantees so that no war could be waged against Ukraine by the Russian Federation. The United States refused to accept these guarantees. One of the guarantees that the Russian Federation was seeking it make Ukraine a neutral state, demilitarize, and not join any military entity especially NATO or the like. The United States and its allies, the Europeans, refused to accept these guarantees which were considered grave conditions against them.

On the 24th of February 2022, a Special Military Operation was announced by the Russian Federation against Ukraine. Between eve and dawn, the Russian Federation waded a special military operation with its troops that entered into the lands of Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, announced defending his country against the Russian troops.

The Russian army crept into the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, and laid siege on the capital. At the same time, the United States and NATO, represented by General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg and the Ukrainian allies, showed their readiness to help Ukraine financially and militarily. Within time, the Russian troops withdrew from the suburbs of Kyiv and were restricted to certain important regions that served the operation.

During two years of the Russian war, there are no official statistics on the losses of the two parties announced by either the Russian Federation or Ukraine. But what is expected according to some unofficial statistics is that the Russian Federation lost 170,000 individuals and 180,000 injured. 2000 Russian tanks were destroyed during the Special Military Operation. Ukraine lost 70,000 individuals and 120,000 injured. 90% of the Ukrainian army has been ripped off and suffered from the lack of individuals to fight. Due to these losses, the structure of the Ukrainian army decreased to 45,000 individuals while it was approximately 350,000 when the military operation started. But these numbers of losses to the Russian Federation are nothing in comparison to its control of approximately 18% of the Ukrainian lands. Russia took control of 70% of Zaporozhia, 60% of Donetsk, 99% of Lugansk, and 60% of Kherson as well as to Crimea peninsula which was taken control in 2014. Nevertheless, the total area which is taken control by the Russian Federation is 90,000-kilo meter square during the Special Military Operation despite the unlimited support provided by the United States and NATO with different types of weapons like M142 HIMARS, Leopard tanks, Challenger, and many other weapons.

Despite the Russian setbacks in Kharkev and its withdrawal in September 2022, Russia showed maneuver and persistence. Its patience has reflected the ability to take control of new regions while the Ukrainians tried to regain the regions seized by the Russians through their counterattack.

By the end of 2022, Bakhmut witnessed huge bitter battles between the Russians and Ukrainians. Wagner, a military company belonging to Russia, was responsible for paving the way for the Russian army to enter the city and dismiss the Ukrainians. It waded enormous battles to seize the city and fought the Ukrainians furiously. In the long run, the Ukrainian counterattack failed to regain the areas controlled by the Russian Federation.

To understand the dimensions of this war politically and economically, it has revealed the tendency of the Russian Federation, supported by China, to change the world into multi-polar. But this tendency needs more efforts to consolidate its elements under the United States supremacy. The consequences of the war have reflected the desire of China and Russia to liberate the world from the American’s control of the world. Even the economic change in Russian relations during the war helped the Russians to rely on their efforts and find new allies, rather than the Europeans, to fend off the great bundles of sanctions imposed by the United States. The Europeans found the war as a chance to liberate from the Russian’s supremacy by providing them with oil and gas. This made Russia find new allies like China and India to purchase Russian oil and gas which played a great role in helping Russia avoid the American sanctions and protect the Russian economy from collapse even the price cap on Russian oil.

Finally, the Russian Special Military Operation is continuing while the solutions to peace have not had a place to it yet. But what is tangible is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not reached a compromise that may be accepted by the two disputed parties. But what is sure is that the Russian Federation started the Special Military Operation, and the United States will end this war.

Zaid Alquraishy
Zaid Alquraishy
Zaid Alquraishy holds BAs in Translation and Linguistic Sciences. He is an Iraqi researcher, poet, journalist and interpreter. He is interested in the economic, social, and political affairs.