The past 12th of July, Poland chose its next president for the following 5 years. The incumbent president, Andrzej Duda, secured another term after a tight race by winning 51.03% of the votes.
Duda’s re-election is crucial not only for Poland´s future, but for the European Integration Process as a whole should the Poland’s ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party proceed to deepen reforms that may thwart the independence of the judiciary, and potentially undermine democracy in the country.
Duda has previously voiced its support for traditional family, catholic values, and throughout his campaign he drew on homophobia, racism, and discrimination to further divide the country. Duda is unlikely to change course after this re-election; he will not adhere to liberal values all of a sudden, and he will not stop undermining the autonomy of the legislative and the judiciary branches.
The consequences of the last Polish presidential election will not strictly be national only. It potentially represents yet another threat to the continuation of the European Union (EU). Poland and the EU have been at odds since 2019 when the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) ruled that policies being passed by the Congress in Poland weakened the independence of Polish Courts of Justice and were a direct violation to the Treaty of the EU. Poland’s newly elected government could reject such ruling and go against one of the founding principles of the EU: The right to have independent courts of justice.
The polarisation happening in Poland should not be seen as an exception in Europe. Poland clearly shows the deeper divisions and fractures that have been straining Europe’s unity for years, and that European Union leaders have chosen to turn a blind eye to. However, the need to address them is growing if the continent wants to ensure its cohesion, political, economic, and social stability.
Alike Poland, Eastern Europe has witnessed a rapid, steady increase in right-wing radicalism, populism, and authoritarianism. While Duda is far from becoming as authoritarian as Viktor Orbán in Hungary or Vucic in Serbia; Duda’s re-election could help entrench conservative policies in Poland to match those in other countries in the region. He could start pursuing policies that slowly concentrate power on the Executive, reshape the political system and weaken opposition further to prevent them from regaining power in the future.
If Duda pushes for such reforms, they could pose a serious existential threat to the EU, which is already trying to juggle with 3 crises at a time: The constant attack on European core values from authoritarian, Eurosceptic governments and leaders; the COVID-19 pandemic; and the imminent economic downturn as a result past financial failures that were exacerbated by pandemic and the strain on budgets.
Poland, however, has to thread carefully; a sudden shift to a far-right, ultra conservative, authoritarian government will not only weaken the country’s stand in Europe, but also in the world. Should Poland take matters further and mimic the UK’s decision to break away from Europe, this could potentially kill off any electoral gains Duda may enjoy at the moment.
A month before the election, on the 12th of June, Duda visited the US in an attempt to gather support for his project and his presidency. He was looking for allies to compensate the hostile attitude of liberal European leaders. It is true that there are sectors in Poland that would happily see the country align with other nationalists, isolationists like Donald Trump. However, just like in the case of the UK, the US will never be a viable alternative for Poland to replace the EU.
Poland relies heavily on access to the common European market space, and it is highly dependent on development funds. Poland is the 6th largest economy in the EU; however, it has been badly affected by the health crisis. Under the current proposal to tackle the European economic crisis, Poland would be the third largest recipient of financial help just after Italy and Spain. Poland is also set to benefit greatly from the 2021 budget increase of structural and agricultural funds.
It is also unlikely that Poland would push as far as breaking up with the EU project and emulate Britain. Brexit, in a way, helped preventing a series of potential exits of other member states. Brexit was, for many, the start of the beginning of the end of the EU. It was foreseen that Brexit would soon be followed by Grexit, Frexit, Nexit, Itaxit and Swexit. However, when soon after the referendum, the UK descended into political mayhem, it became an admonitory tale for other EU countries who were thinking to follow suit. Brexit, inadvertently, helped the EU’s standing instead of hurting it.
The Brexit process was far from quick, smooth, and successful as Brexiteers had promised from the beginning. The UK was trapped in a never-ending policy maze just to reach consensus on how to leave the Union, let alone the renegotiation of future terms, which is still far from completion. All this disarray has made of leaving the EU a hard-shell on many previously vocal Eurosceptic countries. It is not a coincidence that ever since the 2016 referendum, Eurosceptic political parties have since dropped calls for similar plebiscites. They have instead focused their attention on reforming the EU internally.
Nonetheless, this does not mean that the EU is far from being crisis-free. The economic crisis that is looming provides a fertile ground for Eurosceptic, authoritarian, populist leaders like Duda in Poland. There are basically 2 scenarios under which the EU could implode: The EU experiencing successive exist by member states; this scenario has been eliminated by the failure of Brexit. The second scenario is if all, or a substantial majority of member states agree to dissolve the Union. This scenario is not at all unlikely. The long-term success of the EU is far from certain, as the economic crisis deepens social discontent and favours populism and authoritarianism across the continent. This could signal a future agreement among member states to end European integration in order to pursue more nationalistic and isolationist agendas.
