Chinese intelligence agencies are analyzing the implications of the announcement made on Sunday, April 26, 2026, by Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett that they would run together in the elections this year, aiming to oust current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Lapid-Bennett alliance, intended to end the Netanyahu era, is of paramount importance to Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security circles. According to recent political developments in Israel in April 2026, the announcement by Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett of the merger of their parties into a single political entity called Together – Led by Bennett is considered a major strategic move by China, aimed at defeating Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the upcoming elections (Together – Led by Bennett). Based on analytical reports and intensive Chinese intelligence monitoring, relevant Chinese agencies in parallel with analyses from military academies assessed the Israeli political shifts, specifically the Lapid-Bennett government period (2021-2022), which ended Netanyahu’s first long term, as a strategic opportunity to alter the balance of power in the region, albeit with extreme caution.
Although Chinese intelligence agencies do not typically issue immediate public reports, think tanks affiliated with the Chinese state follow an analytical pattern that can be summarized by their reaction to concerns about regional instability and energy security. China views the recurring political turmoil in Israel as a destabilizing factor for the entire region, impacting its Belt and Road Initiative projects and the security of its energy supplies. In addition to China’s desire to find a stable partner, Chinese intelligence may see the Lapid-Bennett alliance as an attempt to end the Netanyahu era, which has witnessed escalating military tensions with Iran (including the possibility of a 2025 war), potentially paving the way for a government more focused on domestic reform and regional stability.
Here, Chinese intelligence views the anticipated electoral alliance between Lapid and Bennett within the context of great power relations (China versus America) and as a counter to American influence. Beijing understands that both poles in Israel (Netanyahu or the new alliance) will remain close allies of the United States. However, Beijing may analyze this alliance as an opportunity to reduce the tensions that Netanyahu sometimes provokes with China to appease Washington, especially after his accusations that Beijing is leading an information blockade against Israel. While Beijing is trying to establish a balance policy with Iran, it fears that the continuation of the far-right government led by Netanyahu could lead to a full-blown regional conflict that would be detrimental. With its commercial interests in the region, even with Israel, which remains its second-largest trading partner in the Middle East.
To this end, Chinese intelligence agencies worked on assessing the political opportunities, advantages, and disadvantages of the Lapid-Bennett alliance to end the Netanyahu era. They analyzed Bennett’s role as a popular candidate in Israel, and Chinese analyses (based on recent Israeli opinion polls) indicate that Bennett is ahead of Netanyahu in some polls, with 67% of Israelis expressing distrust in Netanyahu’s current leadership. Beijing’s intelligence, military, defense, and security circles also analyzed the likelihood of the continuity of Israeli security policy under Bennett. Chinese analysts noted that Bennett might be more hardline on some security issues, such as rejecting the two-state solution. This means that the political change might not necessarily alter the intensity of the regional conflict, which China consistently criticizes in international forums. China is likely to deal with this. This new Israeli electoral alliance is adopting a cautious neutrality stance, waiting to see if this new entity will be able to achieve a stable majority that will guarantee the protection of Chinese investments and reduce the likelihood of a comprehensive regional explosion.
The most prominent points and features of China’s assessment of the opportunities and advantages for China in the new (Lapid-Bennett alliance’s victory) lie in its evaluation of it as an opportunity to reduce Washington’s influence. Chinese circles sought to assess the extent to which a change in government led by Lapid-Bennett could succeed in lessening Israel’s narrow response to anti-China American pressure, especially after Netanyahu exploited his relationship with Washington to obstruct Chinese investments. With China focusing on expanding its investments and infrastructure within Israel should the new Israeli electoral alliance (Lapid-Bennett) succeed, the new Israeli government, from Beijing’s perspective, is more focused on domestic and economic issues, thus allowing the continuation of sensitive Chinese projects such as the operation of the Haifa port. To this end, Chinese policy plans to engage with the center and left in Israel. China has preferred to assess building bridges with technocrats and liberal politicians in Israel, rather than the extreme right, to advance its economic and technological interests.
On the other hand, Chinese intelligence agencies have been assessing the risks and drawbacks for China should the Lapid-Bennett alliance win in Israel, particularly regarding the continuity of the alliance with the United States. Despite Netanyahu’s absence, China is well aware that any Israeli government will remain aligned with the US in the Sino-American rivalry and that Bennett has shared Washington’s concerns about Chinese investments. China fears continued US pressure under the Lapid-Bennett alliance, as Beijing has observed ongoing warnings from the US, such as those delivered by the CIA director to Bennett, regarding the need to curb what Washington perceives as Chinese technological penetration in Israel. Consequently, Chinese circles are apprehensive about the instability in their relationship with Lapid-Bennett, viewing the alliance as fragile and inconsistent, which would complicate long-term strategic planning for China with them.
From this, we understand that China is trying to exploit the post-Netanyahu period to reposition itself as an economic partner, believing that his departure reduces the direct confrontation he used to provoke. However, it remains wary that its penetration might encounter a joint Israeli-American security wall, regardless of who the next prime minister of Israel is.
