The launch of large-scale US and Israeli strikes against Iran starting on February 28 enters the second month now. It is undeniable that the U.S. and Israel had plotted the military aggression against Iran during the middle of nuclear negotiations with a view to degrading Tehran’s military capabilities and likely precipitating regime change. In any case, the war is not only illegal but also more outrageous for the killing of Iranian leaders and attacks on civilian targets, including the attack on Iran girls’ school. Accordingly, the world is deeply concerned with the war intensity as it unfolds across the region.
China’s formal stance is salient in that it has opposed regime change and externally engineered political transitions as a matter of doctrine, which is contrary to principles it treats as protective of a state’s sovereignty and domestic and territorial integrity. That doctrinal stance consistently shapes Beijing’s efforts, as on March 3 it joined Moscow and the Global South in requesting an emergency UN Security Council session, calling for respect for Iran’s territorial integrity and a cessation of hostilities. China also called for protecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and announced dispatching a special envoy to mediate. This move is certain to enhance China’s diplomatic profile but unlikely to gain traction in Washington absent a search for an off-ramp.
This writing argues that China’s position on the escalating war in Iran echoes the well-established principle of respect for sovereignty and the UN Charter while also exposing its concerns over the region that is central to the global energy security and its commercial route, e.g., the “Belt & Road Initiative.” On the first day of U.S.-Israeli joint strikes against Iran, China denounced it as “unacceptable” as the war acts the “blatant killing” of then Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, senior military commanders, and a couple of civilian officials and even targets public facilities and schools. Moreover, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, U.S. allies in Europe openly decline Trump’s request to join “his war” against Iran. Given this, China has called for an end to all military action, an immediate resumption of peace talks, and a joint effort to push for a political solution to the war escalating in Iran and the Middle East.
On March 27, at the request of Iran, China, and Cuba, the UN Human Rights Council held an urgent debate on the attack on the elementary school in Minab, Iran. The Chinese envoy put it that since 168 girl students lost their lives in the attack on Iran’s Minab primary school, this atrocity broke the bottom line of human moral conscience and is undisputed the greatest violation of human rights and a blatant contempt for international humanitarian law. For the first time since the war started, China uses the strongest rhetoric to condemn the U.S. and Israel because the brazen attacks against Iran were not authorized by the UN Security Council. Moreover, the killing of Iranian leaders and all indiscriminate attacks against civilians and non-military targets in Iran and the Middle East gravely violate international law.
Yet, China has paired diplomatic protests with precautionary measures. While pressing its legal-diplomatic case, Beijing moves to limit exposure but urges all warring parties involved to cease fire and resume peace talks while taking concrete actions to preserve stability in the region. This combination of public condemnation and rapid risk mitigation is seen as the Chinese approach to the military conflicts in Ukraine and now in Iran. It is true that China has a comprehensive strategic deal with Iran valued at $400 billion, as it is seen as a key node in the BRI. Meanwhile, China has not taken sides but sincerely maintained what it is termed the “principled position.”
First, China has reiterated that it is not a party to the war itself but has denounced the war against Iran, as it is a sovereign state reserving the “inalienable and legal” right to defend its security and dignity. Fairly speaking, Iran did not start the war since it had held talks on the nuclear issue with the U.S. which has backed Israel all the time. Second, China has urged all the parties involved to restrain their military actions within the fixed installations. Third, China has championed Iran’s legitimate right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy while echoing Iran’s statement that Tehran has lacked intention to develop nuclear weapons. Forth, China stands ready to make all efforts to prevent the war from further escalating and spiraling out of control because the use of force cannot truly resolve the issue.
Henry Kissinger once noted that in China today, the basic Confucian value of “self-restraint” remains a diplomatic tool: e.g., Chinese deem that diplomacy is the elaboration of a strategic principle since they do not think that personal relations can affect their judgments, though they may invoke personal ties to facilitate their own efforts. They patiently take the long view against impatient interlocutors, making time their ally. In light of what Kissinger observed of the Chinese way of dealing with the crisis, it argues that China has come to work with Russia, the Global South countries, and particularly Pakistan, which held a quadrilateral meeting involving the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Türkiye on current Middle East tensions on March 29 with a clear view to de-escalating and promoting regional stability.
The quadrilateral meeting comes amid intensified diplomatic activity as China and Pakistan held a phone call on the situation in Iran and voiced support for restarting peace talks two days ago. It is noted that Pakistan FM Dar thanked China for supporting Pakistan’s mediation efforts because the two sides share the same goals and positions on this issue. Dar has reiterated that Pakistan looks forward to working with China to play an active role in promoting peace and a ceasefire in Iran and the region.
Now it can be said that the US-Israeli war against Iran has not yet won a decisive victory as expected in the initial phase, or simply put, the initial objective, such as swift “regime change,” has demonstrably failed. True, Iran has paid a heavy price physically and humanly; yet, Teheran has saliently aroused nationalism amid national crises. In terms of diplomacy, Iran has gained traction from the global community. Moreover, since China is the largest economic partner of almost all Gulf countries and the largest trading partner of Iran, Beijing has certain leverage in the regional affairs to forge a concert of major countries in the Middle East to help prevent the war from spreading and restore normal navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. On March 31 in Beijing, China and Pakistan put forward five proposals on restoring peace and stability in the Gulf region and the Middle East during talks between the foreign ministers of the two sides. The key ideas are as follows: 1. Immediate ceasefire & access to war-affected areas for humanitarian assistance; 2. Early peace talks conditioned on respect for the sovereignty of Iran & Gulf states; 3. Protection of civilians & non-military infrastructure under the rules of international law; 4. Security of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz must be ensured. 5. The UN Charter-based peace framework needs to be followed.
Now with military options exhausted and political will fraying, it is fair to say that China has insisted that it is the just time when diplomacy prevails. Although it is not involved in the war, China is critically Iran’s foremost economic partner while maintaining stable relations with the Gulf states and also complex dialogue with the United States and Israel as well.
