China views US military bases in the Gulf and the Middle East as instruments of hegemony and monitors their impact on energy security. It adopts a civil-military integration strategy to quietly increase its influence, leveraging infrastructure and ports while avoiding direct confrontation. This strategy focuses on economic and technological cooperation to advance its interests in the region. Consequently, China seeks to expand its military influence by establishing bases, such as those in Djibouti and Cambodia, to counter the US presence in the Indo-Pacific. Despite the US having 800 bases compared to China’s limited expansion, Beijing employs a blockade-blockade strategy to secure its trade routes and build a global military capability. The most prominent features of the military transformation (Chinese versus American) lie in China’s expansion strategy. China has begun increasing its presence beyond its borders, targeting the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean. Its base in Djibouti can accommodate 10,000 troops, and it seeks to establish bases in the Solomon Islands. This is in response to the American encirclement of China with hundreds of military bases. China is also working to expand its alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, including the AU (Australia-Britain) alliance with Australia and the United Kingdom. The areas of Sino-American competition are concentrated in the South China Sea, where China is establishing bases on disputed islands, while the US Navy is conducting intensive maneuvers.
The Chinese strategy focuses on implementing a containment strategy against Washington. China does not rely solely on military bases like the United States but also focuses on containing the containment of the containment, such as the Solomon Islands Agreement. Furthermore, it is strengthening its presence through economic investments in ports, such as in Peru, as part of dual-use civilian and military infrastructure. To that end, China is moving to reduce its reliance on US-controlled sea lanes, turning the competition for military bases into a protracted cold war between the two powers.
China is exploiting the Iran-US conflict to implement a siege-siege strategy by providing economic and military support to Tehran following the signing of a 25-year strategic partnership agreement. This breaks US isolation and drains Washington in a protracted regional conflict. Beijing aims to transform the Middle East into a war of attrition that weakens US influence, capitalizing on its need for the region’s energy resources and Iran’s geostrategic location. The Chinese siege-siege strategy relies on indirect tactics, including supporting Iran (which supplies 20% of China’s oil) to challenge Washington, avoiding direct military intervention, and investing in infrastructure. This circumvents US sanctions, effectively encircling Washington. Beijing aims to keep the US preoccupied with protracted wars of attrition in the Middle East, thus reducing its focus on the Asia-Pacific region and giving China an opportunity to expand its global influence. This also helps expand Chinese influence, as China adopts the Belt and Road Initiative to connect countries within its economic sphere of influence, using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS group as tools to support Iran politically. China aims to achieve several strategic objectives in its confrontation with Washington, including exhausting Washington by embroiling the US in Middle Eastern conflicts while simultaneously safeguarding its energy interests by securing oil flows through long-term partnerships with Iran. China also seeks to challenge American hegemony by reshaping the geopolitical landscape to create a more balanced and less unipolar world order.
In this context, the Middle East is witnessing a rapid strategic shift with the increasing Chinese influence. Analyses indicate that Beijing is attempting to circumvent and contain American bases by strengthening its security and economic ties with countries in the region, particularly Iran. This strategy aims to weaken American hegemony and implement a counter-encirclement through logistical expansion, exploiting regional tensions. The most prominent features of China’s strategic shift in 2025-2026 lie in its analysis of logistical capabilities to encircle US military bases in the region, particularly in the Gulf, and undermine their effectiveness, especially given the escalating tensions in the Gulf. China seeks to protect its Iranian partner and prevent its collapse, considering Iran a strategic ally for safeguarding its interests in the region. This makes protecting Tehran part of its strategy to encircle Washington. China is exploiting the security vacuum in the Middle East, coupled with growing Chinese questions about the viability of US bases in the region following repeated attacks on American and Israeli interests. This presents an opportunity for China to position itself as a viable strategic alternative. Therefore, China has adopted an encirclement of the encirclement strategy, with Beijing developing its military bases and strengthening its regional alliances to counter the US strategy, which is primarily aimed at containing China.
As for the features of the Chinese vision, they are evident in its dual-use civil-military strategy. China is working to blur the lines between its commercial and military presence, with its state-owned companies investing in strategic ports in the region. These ports also serve its naval assets, such as its presence at Khalifa Port in the UAE, thus increasing its influence without the need for large bases. China monitors all American bases and activities in the region while simultaneously avoiding confrontation. It adopts a silent policy of observing and analyzing the American presence, avoiding direct intervention or formal alliances and preferring a limited logistical presence, such as its base in Djibouti. Intelligence, military, defense, and security circles in Beijing consider American bases to be part of the conflict. Chinese think tanks and intelligence agencies analyze the potential impact of a US-Israeli war on Iran, which could weaken the effectiveness of American bases in the Gulf and the wider region, portraying them as part of the conflict rather than a stabilizing force. As Beijing seeks to balance its relations between Washington’s allies (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) and Iran, focusing on economic gains, it aims to achieve several objectives, including securing energy routes to protect its vital oil interests through a maritime presence. China is also competing with American influence by gradually undermining the US role as the region’s security guarantor. This is evidenced by the intensified Chinese military presence through the export of Chinese military technology to the Gulf and the wider region and the strengthening of Chinese security cooperation with Gulf states through drones, missiles, and the digital infrastructure of 5G networks provided by the Chinese company Huawei.
From the preceding analysis, we understand that a US-China military clash is not the only possibility. The real change lies in America losing its political and economic influence to a rising Chinese influence, which could redraw the geopolitical map of the Middle East and the Gulf.
