China and its People’s Liberation Army have developed an ambitious military strategy for comprehensive military modernization, beginning with the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). This has prompted the United States to urgently reposition its forces. While China strengthens its defense capabilities to counter external pressure, Washington finds itself compelled to withdraw some of its military forces, particularly the Marines stationed in Okinawa, Japan (originally intended to deter China), and redeploy them to the Middle East in anticipation of a potential military confrontation with Iran in March 2026. Accordingly, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) included an increase in the Chinese defense budget and allocations. This plan, which officially began in January 2026, aimed to lay a solid foundation for achieving comprehensive socialist modernization in China by 2035. The announcement of these plans coincided with the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan. In March 2026, China announced a 10% increase in its defense budget, reaching approximately 1.9 trillion yuan (US$277 billion), to address emergencies and other tactical military objectives. The 15th Five-Year Plan focused on technological self-reliance through the development of artificial intelligence, quantum sensing, and hypersonic anti-missile technologies. This was intended to enhance the Chinese military’s ability to withstand international pressure and threats in the South China Sea and around Taiwan.
From my analytical point of view, China and its army have decided to increase the defense budget and military allocations to increase aspects of Chinese military defense to support its ally Iran in the Middle East in order to preserve China’s interests and investments through the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in the region, especially with the increasing American buildup in Okinawa, Japan, from deterrence to emergency deployment. The United States had restructured its Marine forces in Okinawa to become a Marine Coastal Regiment, known militarily as the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment.
By 2026, with the aim of countering Chinese expansion from the American military perspective, as part of the US Resilience Force military strategy, especially with the US military shift towards Iran. In March 2026, as the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other entered its third week, emergency US military orders were issued to move the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, known militarily as the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), stationed in Okinawa, Japan. To that end, several US military assets deployed at the US naval base in Okinawa, Japan, including the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli (LHA-7), carrying approximately 2,500 US Marines, departed from Japan for the Middle East to support ongoing US military operations against Iran and secure the Strait of Hormuz.
As for the essence of the relationship and the strategic link between the increase in the military defense budget and allocations within the framework of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and the American military intervention in Iran and the Middle East to change political systems by force, as happened in Venezuela, which is also an ally of China, the relationship is manifested in the challenge of priorities that the great powers are currently facing, starting from March 2026, and China’s exploitation of opportunities. While the United States of America is preoccupied with depleting its resources and elite forces, such as the Marines in Okinawa, Japan, in a confrontation with Iran and the region, China continues, through its 15th Five-Year Plan, to build long-range military and technological capabilities without being drawn into a direct confrontation. Furthermore, China is exploiting the perceived American security vacuum in the Asia-Pacific region, which is close to China’s direct military influence. The withdrawal of US Marines from Okinawa, Japan, temporarily reduces the American military presence in the first island chain surrounding China. Beijing may see this as an opportunity to bolster its regional influence under the guise of the defense and military modernization outlined in its new five-year plan. This creates a mutual military pressure between China’s defense commitments and its American rivalry. With China increasing its military budget and defense allocations within the framework of its fifteenth five-year plan, Washington is forced to attempt a difficult balancing act between its commitment to deterring China in the Indo-Pacific region and its urgent need to maintain forces in the Middle East to counter Iranian escalation.
This comes at a time when the region is witnessing an unprecedented military escalation in March 2026, with the United States and Israel entering into a direct military confrontation with Iran and the increasing US military buildup of Marines to secure waterways and destroy Iranian military capabilities. The US Department of Defense (the Pentagon) decided to deploy thousands of US Marines to Iran and the region as part of a new reinforcement effort. US military orders were issued to deploy approximately 2,200 to 2,500 additional Marines to the Middle East. In addition, elite units were deployed, including the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), operating from Okinawa, Japan. These forces and US naval vessels were to move aboard three amphibious landing ships, led by the USS Tripoli, which was en route to the region. As for the stated US military objectives for deploying more Marines, they are strengthening deterrence capabilities and securing waterways in the Middle East, especially the Strait of Hormuz, which has been affected by Iranian attacks, along with supporting ongoing military operations to dismantle Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities. Consequently, the total number of US troops in the region has been increased to more than 50,000.
In preparation for the US military buildup and offensive plans, China has also developed its own military plans and positions, particularly after the approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which includes increased defense spending. This is a result of regional tensions and the ongoing confrontation with Iran, China’s ally in the Middle East, and is aimed at protecting China’s investments and interests there. Therefore, China has increased its defense budget for 2026 by 6.9%, reaching approximately $270 billion, with a focus on modernizing the People’s Liberation Army to create a multi-branch force capable of operating far beyond its shores. At the same time, China officially declared its commitment to restraint and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to dialogue. Beijing is pursuing a new military strategy in the Gulf and the Middle East, dubbed the gradual expansion policy, aimed at diminishing American influence in the Gulf in particular. This strategy involves joint military and naval exercises and arms deals while avoiding direct military involvement in the current conflict. Furthermore, China is providing Iran with comprehensive intelligence support, monitoring Chinese space assets (Chinese satellites and the BeiDou navigation system) to track the movements of American forces at bases in the region, such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, thereby enhancing operational awareness. China has refused to become directly involved in the ongoing war between Iran and the United States and has declined to offer formal security guarantees to Iran or provide direct material support that could jeopardize its relations with other trading partners or the United States.
