Pakistan’s energy planners say the country is now significantly less vulnerable to disruptions in imported liquefied natural gas as domestic sources increasingly dominate electricity generation.
Power Minister Awais Leghari told Reuters that about 74 percent of Pakistan’s electricity is currently generated from local sources such as solar, wind, nuclear power, coal and hydropower. The government aims to increase that share to more than 96 percent by 2034 as part of a broader strategy to improve energy security and reduce dependence on imported fuel.
The comments come at a time when the war in the Middle East threatens global gas supplies. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters and Pakistan’s main supplier, halted production earlier this month, sending Asian buyers scrambling for cargoes.
Pakistan historically relied heavily on LNG imports to fuel power plants during periods of peak electricity demand. But rapid growth in domestic generation and rooftop solar has begun to reshape the country’s energy landscape.
LNG risk contained
According to the power minister, LNG now accounts for roughly 10 percent of Pakistan’s electricity generation and is primarily used to stabilise the grid and meet evening demand peaks.
This marks a sharp shift from earlier years when the country faced prolonged electricity shortages. During the global energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Pakistan struggled to secure LNG cargoes on the spot market, forcing authorities to impose extended power cuts across the country.
Leghari said the situation today is different because Pakistan’s electricity mix has become more diversified and less dependent on imported fuel.
Even in a scenario where LNG cargoes are disrupted or become too expensive, he said the impact on industry, agriculture and overall production capacity would likely remain limited. At worst, Pakistan might face one to two hours of load shedding during peak summer evenings if supply disruptions persist for several months.
Rise of domestic energy
A surge in local generation has been central to this shift. Hydropower remains one of Pakistan’s largest sources of electricity, producing around 40 terawatt hours annually, while nuclear plants generate roughly 22 terawatt hours. Domestic coal contributes about 12 terawatt hours.
At the same time, solar power has expanded rapidly, particularly through rooftop installations across cities and industrial hubs. Government estimates suggest more than 20 gigawatts of solar capacity has been installed nationwide, with much of it operating outside the main grid.
This “people led solar revolution,” as Leghari described it, has significantly reduced daytime demand on the national grid and changed how electricity is consumed across the country.
During summer months, hydropower output also increases as river flows rise, adding up to 7,000 megawatts of capacity and helping meet higher demand from air conditioners.
Clean energy ambitions
Officials say Pakistan’s long term energy strategy will prioritise domestic and cleaner sources of power. Currently, around 55 percent of electricity generation comes from clean sources such as hydropower, solar, wind and nuclear energy.
The government aims to raise that share above 90 percent by 2034 while avoiding investments that could expose the country to energy security risks from imported fuels.
The shift has already influenced policy decisions. Pakistan recently cancelled 21 LNG cargoes scheduled for delivery in 2026 and 2027 under a long term agreement with Eni, reflecting lower gas demand due to the growth of renewable energy and surplus generation capacity.
Analysis
Pakistan’s evolving power mix reflects a broader structural change in its energy system. For decades the country struggled with chronic electricity shortages and heavy reliance on imported fuel. Today the challenge has shifted from insufficient generation to managing excess capacity and financial stress within the power sector.
The rapid expansion of rooftop solar is particularly significant. By reducing daytime demand on the grid, it has altered consumption patterns and reduced reliance on gas fired power plants that traditionally handled peak loads.
However, the transition is not without challenges. Power outages still occur in parts of the country due to electricity theft, transmission losses and financial constraints within the distribution system rather than a lack of generation capacity.
Battery storage and grid modernisation will therefore be critical if Pakistan is to fully integrate large volumes of renewable energy and shift surplus daytime solar power to evening demand peaks.
In the context of geopolitical tensions and volatile energy markets, the growing role of domestic power sources offers Pakistan an important buffer. But maintaining reliability will depend less on adding new generation and more on reforming the power sector’s infrastructure and finances.
With information from Reuters.
