Countries across the Gulf have warned European officials that the escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel could destabilise Iran internally and potentially trigger a civil war, according to the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas.
Speaking ahead of a video conference between European Union foreign ministers and representatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Kallas said governments in the Middle East were increasingly alarmed about the consequences of the war for Iran’s internal political stability. Regional leaders have expressed concern that the combination of military pressure, economic strain and leadership uncertainty could fracture Iran’s political system.
The conflict has already intensified geopolitical tensions across the Middle East, raising fears not only of a wider interstate confrontation but also of domestic upheaval within Iran. With the country’s leadership structure under strain following recent attacks and political uncertainty, regional actors are closely monitoring whether internal divisions could escalate into broader instability.
EU Pushes for Diplomatic Exit
The European Union is attempting to steer the crisis toward diplomacy, with Kallas emphasising that military confrontations ultimately require negotiated solutions.
She said the bloc was working to maintain diplomatic channels in order to prevent the conflict from spiralling further. According to Kallas, sustained escalation risks locking the region into a cycle of retaliation that could be difficult to reverse.
European officials are also increasingly focused on protecting critical maritime routes in the Gulf. The EU remains particularly concerned about security around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transit corridors, through which a significant share of global oil shipments passes.
Although Kallas noted that Europe is less dependent on Gulf oil supplies than some other regions, disruptions to shipping could still affect global energy markets and broader economic stability.
Transatlantic Tensions Over Military Bases
The war has also created friction within the Western alliance. A diplomatic dispute has emerged between the United States and Spain after Madrid refused to allow American aircraft to use jointly operated naval and air bases in southern Spain for operations against Iran.
Spain has publicly criticised the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes as reckless and unlawful, creating a rare public disagreement between NATO allies. The White House said Spain had agreed to cooperate with Washington’s requests, but Spanish officials quickly denied the claim.
Asked about the disagreement, Kallas said she hoped Washington would continue to respect the existing trade agreement between the United States and the European Union, which applies collectively to all EU member states.
Analysis
The growing concern about a potential civil war in Iran reflects a deeper strategic fear among regional governments: that the collapse or fragmentation of the Iranian state could be even more destabilising than the current military confrontation.
Iran occupies a central geopolitical position in the Middle East, and internal conflict there could produce cascading consequences from refugee flows and proxy conflicts to the disruption of vital energy routes. Gulf states, many of which already face sectarian and political tensions, are particularly wary of instability spilling across borders.
For the European Union, the situation presents a dual challenge. On one hand, Brussels seeks to prevent a broader regional war that could destabilise energy markets and migration flows affecting Europe. On the other, divisions between Western allies over the legitimacy and strategy of the military campaign against Iran risk weakening diplomatic cohesion.
The discussion of a possible Iranian civil war also highlights the fragile nature of political authority in wartime conditions. Military pressure from abroad can sometimes consolidate regimes, but when combined with internal power struggles or leadership transitions, it can also accelerate political fragmentation.
In that sense, regional concerns are less about the immediate battlefield outcomes and more about the longer-term trajectory of the Iranian state itself a development that could reshape the strategic balance of the Middle East for years to come.
With information from Reuters.
