The Israeli Abraham Accords represent a strategic shift that extends beyond the Middle East, impacting Southeast Asia. The United States and Israel are working to expand this model to include major Muslim-majority countries in the region, a move China views as a direct challenge to its national security and vital interests, especially given the US efforts to extend the Abraham Accords into Southeast Asia. While the Abraham Accords primarily focus on the Middle East, they also affect Southeast Asian countries (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN) by dividing their positions. Muslim-majority countries like Malaysia and Indonesia have adopted stances closer to the Palestinians, while countries like Singapore and Thailand maintain close ties with Israel. This reflects the impact of normalization on the choices of ASEAN countries and Beijing’s sphere of direct influence.
Here, Israeli-American diplomacy sought to include influential Southeast Asian countries within the framework of the Abraham Accords or other similar or alternative cooperation frameworks. Among the most prominent are Indonesia and Vietnam. For years, the US has been working to bring Indonesia (the world’s largest Muslim-majority country) into the Abraham Accords, while simultaneously strengthening technological and defense cooperation with countries like Vietnam and the Philippines to address regional challenges.
In addition, there are the persistent US efforts to complete the I2U2 Corridor project. This framework connects India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States, linking the Middle East to South Asia and extending its influence to Southeast Asia, as an economic and security bloc parallel to Chinese projects. With other persistent American attempts to isolate China in the Middle East through counter-alliances, the updated version of the Israeli Abraham Accords (Abraham Accords 2.0) is viewed as a cornerstone of a military and economic alliance extending across Central and Southeast Asia, serving as a counterweight to the Sino-Russian axis.
China fears the impact of the expansion of the Israeli Abraham Accords on its own national security. China considers this expansion of the Abraham Accords to be a threat to the foundations of its national security in several ways, most importantly, containing the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. China relies on regional stability to secure its trade routes. Beijing fears that these Abraham Accords could polarize the entire region, potentially hindering the progress of its major economic projects if they transform into military alliances aligned with Washington against it. In addition to China’s concerns regarding American and Israeli technology, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence, which will be included in the Abraham Accords through various forms of cooperation under the guise of peace processes, normalization, and the Abraham Accords, the United States is pressuring Abraham Accords partners to exclude Chinese 5G network technology, such as that of “Huawei,” for security reasons. This threatens China’s technological dominance in vital markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
China also fears losing the military balance in its vital Southeast Asian region if Israel sells its military systems to countries there. China is concerned that Israel might sell advanced military technologies to Southeast Asian countries with border disputes with Beijing, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, thus altering the balance of power in the South China Sea. This presents Beijing with a dilemma of neutrality, whereas China finds itself in a difficult position: rejecting the Abraham Accords could harm its growing economic ties with Israel and the Gulf states, while accepting them could weaken its influence as a potential alternative to the United States in resolving international conflicts.
Beijing fears the impact of the Israeli Abraham Accords on Chinese national security, particularly their potential to challenge Chinese influence. These agreements, with US support, promote regional security and intelligence cooperation, such as the Negev Forum, which could aim to limit Chinese expansion in the region. Furthermore, there is an overlap of interests (opportunities and risks) between China and the countries that have entered into the Abraham Accords with Israel. China is a major trading partner for the UAE and Israel (parties to the Abraham Accords) while simultaneously pursuing its Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, regional security stability serves China’s economic interests, despite US competition. Perhaps a deeper analysis, from the perspective of those benefiting from the Israeli Abraham Accords, might suggest that these agreements could contribute to creating a strategic balance. From their point of view, the Abraham Accords help establish a balance between US (security) influence and China’s (economic) influence in the Middle East, thus forcing China to balance its relations with the Gulf states and Israel without directly clashing with Washington.
Thus, the Abraham Accords, which began in 2020 with the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab states, serve as a launching pad for expanding Israeli influence in Asia. This directly intersects with China’s strategic interests and national security in the region. This is especially true given the expansion of the Israeli Abraham Accords into Asia (developments 2025-2026), as these agreements are no longer confined to the Arab sphere but have extended to include key Asian countries. For example, Kazakhstan in Central Asia joined the Abraham Accords with Israel in November 2025, officially announcing its accession. This represents an Israeli breakthrough in Central Asia, a region vital to China’s national security and its Belt and Road Initiative. In addition to Washington and Tel Aviv’s desire to strengthen alliances in Southeast Asia through the Abraham Accords, Israel maintains close ties with countries, such as Singapore, Thailand, and Cambodia, which are economic and security pillars in Asia that support the Israeli presence there.
However, from my research, academic, and analytical perspective, the most important aspect is the extent to which the Israeli Abraham Accords impact China’s Belt and Road Initiative by creating alternative economic corridors for Chinese interests. The Abraham Accords support major projects, such as “the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor” (IMEC), which is seen as a direct competitor to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Therefore, Beijing is watching this expansion of the Israeli Abraham Accords very closely, given the following implications: (Fear of the encirclement of China’s geopolitical influence): China sees the Abraham Accords as an American tool to strengthen a network of alliances that could restrict China’s freedom of movement in vital maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the Arabian Sea. Furthermore, (China’s apprehension about technological and security competition with Israel and the United States): Israel is a major supplier of advanced technology and security equipment to the Asian region, which could reduce Asian countries’ reliance on Chinese technology or expose security vulnerabilities in Chinese-funded projects. Additionally, (the potential impact of the Abraham Accords on energy security from a Chinese perspective): China is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, so any new geopolitical structure led by the United States and Israel could place Chinese energy supplies under political or security pressure. In addition to the ethical and political challenge for China, which traditionally supports the two-state solution and Palestinian rights to gain the support of the Islamic world, China’s growing ties with Israel in Asia (through the Abraham Accords) present it with a dilemma: balancing its interests with Israel with maintaining its image as a morally upright international power.
Herein lies the Chinese reaction to this increasing American and Israeli influence. China has adopted a strategy of being an active player through playing a regional mediating role, such as its mediation in the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation in 2023, to ensure stability that is not solely dependent on the American umbrella; supporting the Palestinian cause, as demonstrated by China’s hosting of Palestinian reconciliation talks in Beijing in 2024, to bolster its role as a diplomatic alternative to the United States; and expanding direct economic investment, as evidenced by China deepening trade partnerships with countries in the region to ensure it remains the primary economic partner despite political shifts.
Based on the preceding analysis, we understand that the Israeli Abraham Accords, which began in 2020, have reshaped the geopolitics of the Middle East through direct security and economic alliances with Tel Aviv, facilitated by the United States, thus creating a new regional environment. These Abraham Accords, if extended to areas of direct Chinese influence in Southeast Asia, could impact Chinese national security by creating alternative axes that might counterbalance Chinese influence. However, they could also open up opportunities for economic cooperation within the framework of China’s Belt and Road Initiative if properly utilized, thereby enhancing overall regional economic stability.
