Mexico is quietly searching for a way to send fuel to Cuba without provoking U.S. retaliation, as Washington threatens tariffs on countries supplying energy to the crisis-hit island. According to sources familiar with the discussions, senior Mexican officials are in near-constant contact with U.S. counterparts, seeking clarity on how far President Donald Trump’s tariff threats extend and whether there is any legal or diplomatic space to keep fuel flowing.
The urgency is acute. Cuba imports roughly two-thirds of its energy needs and is grappling with worsening power outages, fuel shortages and long queues at petrol stations. With Venezuelan oil shipments halted, Mexico has emerged as Havana’s most important remaining lifeline.
Washington’s Pressure Campaign
The uncertainty stems from a Trump executive order warning of tariffs against countries supplying fuel to Cuba, which Washington has labelled an “extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security a claim Havana rejects outright. Trump said earlier this week that Mexico would stop sending oil to Cuba, though he did not explain why he believed that was already the case.
In practice, Mexico did pause shipments of crude and refined products in mid-January amid growing pressure from Washington. Since then, Mexican officials have been trying to determine whether limited deliveries — especially those framed as humanitarian assistance could proceed without triggering punitive trade measures.
Neither the White House nor Mexico’s presidency has offered fresh public clarification, leaving officials on both sides operating in a fog of strategic ambiguity.
Cuba Running Out of Options
Cuba’s energy crisis has deepened sharply since December, when U.S. actions effectively cut off Venezuelan oil shipments following the blockade of tankers and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January. The loss of Venezuelan supply has left Havana scrambling.
The Cuban government has acknowledged the severity of the situation, announcing it is preparing a plan to deal with “acute fuel shortages.” The United Nations has gone further. Secretary-General António Guterres warned this week that Cuba risks a humanitarian “collapse” without access to oil, with hospitals, food distribution and basic services all under threat.
Mexico’s Political and Moral Bind
For Mexico, the issue is not only economic but deeply political. The ruling Morena party has long-standing ideological and historical ties to Cuba, and President Claudia Sheinbaum faces pressure from within her coalition not to abandon Havana at its moment of need.
At the same time, Mexico is acutely aware of its exposure to U.S. trade pressure. Tariffs would be economically damaging and politically costly, especially as Sheinbaum seeks to stabilise relations with a confrontational Trump administration.
Sources say talks are ongoing almost daily, with cautious optimism that a workaround may be found. One option under discussion is dispatching a tanker carrying gasoline alongside food and other supplies, all designated as humanitarian aid a classification Mexico hopes could shield it from retaliation.
Sheinbaum has publicly warned that cutting off fuel supplies to Cuba could spark a far-reaching humanitarian crisis, urging dialogue and respect for international law.
Personal Analysis
Mexico’s predicament highlights the growing use of trade policy as a blunt geopolitical weapon and the human consequences that can follow. Washington’s pressure campaign against Cuba may serve strategic goals, but it leaves neighbouring countries like Mexico trapped between alliance management and humanitarian responsibility.
For Sheinbaum, this is an early and defining test of foreign policy autonomy. Yield too easily, and Mexico risks being seen at home and abroad as subordinate to U.S. coercion. Push too hard, and the economic costs could be severe.
What makes this moment especially fraught is Cuba’s fragility. Fuel shortages there are not abstract policy problems; they translate directly into darkened hospitals, stalled transport and empty shelves. Framing aid as “humanitarian” may offer Mexico a narrow escape hatch, but it also exposes the limits of a system where essential energy supplies can be politicised overnight.
Whether Mexico finds a solution or not, the episode underscores a broader reality: in an era of tariff diplomacy, even acts of humanitarian relief can become high-risk strategic decisions.
With information from Reuters.
