Japan recorded its highest-ever December tourist arrivals, even as visitors from mainland China plunged by 45% after Beijing discouraged travel. The drop followed diplomatic tensions sparked by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and justify a military response. Despite this, total arrivals reached 3.6 million in December, and for 2025 as a whole Japan welcomed a record 42.7 million tourists, crossing the 40-million mark for the first time.
Why it matters: The figures show that Japan’s tourism recovery is not only complete after the pandemic but also increasingly diversified. While China had previously been Japan’s largest single source of tourists, the overall boom suggests Japan is less vulnerable than before to political pressure from one country. Record tourist spending of 9.5 trillion yen highlights tourism’s growing importance to Japan’s economy at a time of weak domestic consumption.
Stakeholders: The Japanese government and tourism authorities benefit from strong revenues and global interest, while airlines, hotels, retailers, and local businesses gain from sustained foreign demand. Chinese tourists and travel firms are the main losers in the short term, while other markets such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America are filling the gap. Beijing also emerges as a key stakeholder, as its travel advisories now clearly have economic and diplomatic consequences.
What’s next: Momentum may slow. Japan’s largest travel agency, JTB, forecasts a 2.8% decline in overseas visitors this year as post-pandemic pent-up demand fades and arrivals from China and Hong Kong remain weak. Much will depend on whether Japan can keep attracting tourists from alternative markets and whether political tensions with China ease or harden further, shaping travel flows in the Asia-Pacific region.
With information from Reuters.
