The United States is moving to reopen Venezuelan oil exports just weeks after a U.S. military operation removed former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro from power.
Caracas Opens the Taps Under U.S. Pressure
In a televised address, interim president Delcy RodrĂguez publicly condemned the events as the first large-scale American military operation in South America in decades, a “terrible aggression” and “criminal attack” which violated international law norms.
Behind the scenes, however, her officials are negotiating with Washington on a plan to release Venezuela’s trapped oil to U.S. markets. For Washington, the logic is simple: secure oil and lock in influence over a fragile transition government. For Caracas, the choice is narrower: either cooperate, or face isolation and deeper economic collapse.
Decoding Washington’s Ambitions
For Trump, Venezuelan oil is both leverage and a headline. He already announced that 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuela’s “sanctioned oil” will be “turned over” to the United States. At roughly $56 a barrel, this represents up to $2 billion in crude oil.
The administration framed the deal as a win for American energy security, claiming the proceeds would be held under U.S. control to “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States”. The speed matters. Trump and his advisors have signaled plans to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, potentially allowing American companies like ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips back in after years of sanctions.
Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, protected by a special sanctions waiver. In recent weeks, it has been exporting between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day to Washington. Crude once destined for China could be rerouted north, through Chevron’s infrastructure, to U.S. refiners built for Venezuela’s heavy oil.
Global Reactions
China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer for years, especially after U.S. sanctions pushed PDVSA (Venezuela’s state-owned oil company) toward Asia. Much of that oil serviced old loans or moved at steep discounts. That trade has now stalled as two supertankers heading to Venezuela for China halted in late December after U.S. pressure froze shipments. China strongly condemned the U.S. intervention as modern-day piracy, alongside other countries like Russia.
Latin American and European governments have been cautious to respond, warning that post-intervention oil deals must respect international law. The U.S. openly intervening to overthrow a government and then directly channeling that nation’s main export into its own economy is virtually without recent parallel. This raises both legal and ethical questions that will likely be a topic in the United Nations debates of the upcoming months.
How the Oil Still Moves
Sanctions still complicate everything, but negotiators are exploring workarounds by potentially auctioning cargoes to U.S. refiners or granting special Treasury licenses to PDVSA’s partners, companies like India’s Reliance, China’s CNPC, Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol, allowing them to handle Venezuelan crude under U.S. oversight. These firms have worked with PDVSA under past sanctions exemptions, and sources say some have already begun preparing to receive Venezuelan shipments again.
However, PDVSA remains under U.S. sanctions, locked out of the international banking system, with frozen accounts and no direct access to U.S. dollars. It remains unclear how Caracas would be paid for the oil or benefit from its proceeds afterwards. Trump’s plan to hold the revenue “in trust” for the people of Venezuela suggests the funds might be escrowed or funneled via humanitarian or reconstruction programs, rather than handed directly to PDVSA’s managers.
An Economic Lifeline, With Conditions
Years of mismanagement and sanctions have slashed output. Production recently recovered to about 1 million barrels per day, but storage bottlenecks forced new cuts. Over 17 million barrels sat stranded offshore. U.S. officials argue American capital could help rebuild the sector and stabilize the economy. On paper, the match makes sense, as before sanctions, the U.S. imported around 500,000 barrels per day from Venezuela.
But the support comes with demands. Washington has warned powerful figures like Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello to cooperate or face consequences. It is also pressing Caracas to expel Cuban, Russian, and Iranian advisers. The price of economic reopening is Venezuelan geopolitical realignment under Trump.
After Trump’s announcement, U.S. crude oil prices fell over 1.5% on expectations of incoming supply. Venezuela’s Merey crude currently trades at a deep discount to Brent. If sanctions barriers fall, that discount could narrow. American refiners, meanwhile, welcome cheaper feedstock. Many struggled to replace Venezuelan barrels after 2019.
What Comes Next?
One optimistic scenario sees stabilization in the short term. U.S. guidance and influx of dollars could halt the humanitarian freefall, and over time perhaps reinstate elections and restore democratic institutions. Another is darker. Domestic backlash in Venezuela is a real risk, with many citizens, even those who were against Maduro, not wanting to see their oil being effectively overseen by Washington.
For now, the deal has prevented the collapse of Venezuela’s oil sector and handed Trump a visible win. Each tanker heading north signals a restored U.S. grip on a former adversary. Whether that grip rebuilds Venezuela or destabilizes it further is still unclear. There’s also the question of U.S. commitment: with the 2028 presidential election not that far away, will the next administration uphold Trump’s Venezuela policy or potentially leave a power vacuum in the region?
With reporting from Reuters, the BBC, and The Guardian.
