Global investors are facing new geopolitical risks following the U. S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which may open access to the country’s extensive oil reserves. President Donald Trump announced U. S. control of Venezuela, while Maduro waits for charges in a New York detention center. This marks a significant U. S. intervention in Latin America, the first since the Panama invasion in 1989. Economist Marchel Alexandrovich noted that current geopolitical tensions are impacting markets more than in previous administrations.
Markets were closed during the Maduro incident but had started the year positively, with Wall Street indices rising. In 2025, U. S. and global stocks ended near record highs, despite facing challenges like tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions. Former PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian suggested that if markets had been open, there might have been immediate changes in oil prices due to potential increases in Venezuelan exports and a rise in gold prices as a safe haven amidst uncertainty.
Trump stated that the U. S. would manage Venezuela until a safe transition occurs and hinted at military readiness if necessary. He also mentioned that American oil companies are ready to invest billions to restore Venezuela’s oil output, which could benefit global growth by lowering energy prices. Current oil prices have remained stable around $60-$61 per barrel, following U. S. sanctions on Venezuelan tankers.
Despite the potential for increased oil production, analysts believe it could take years to see meaningful improvements. Venezuela’s oil output has declined significantly due to poor management and the nationalization of foreign assets in the 2000s. Investors would face challenges like security risks and the legality of U. S. actions against Maduro. Stephen Dover from Franklin Templeton highlighted that U. S. unilateral actions may lead countries to prioritize national security and would raise questions about the dollar’s status as a safe haven. A future stable and productive Venezuela could significantly contribute to global oil supplies, but achieving this will require political stability and substantial investments.
With information from Reuters
