Taiwan’s defence ministry has warned lawmakers that the island faces a growing risk of a sudden Chinese attack masked as routine military drills. In a report submitted to parliament, the ministry said Taiwan’s armed forces are prepared to respond immediately, even without direct orders from senior command, if China shifts from exercises to actual combat. The assessment comes amid near-daily Chinese military activity around Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory despite having no control over it.
China’s People’s Liberation Army has steadily increased the frequency, scale and complexity of operations near Taiwan in recent years. These include air force sorties, naval patrols and large-scale “joint combat readiness patrols” involving multiple branches of the military. Taipei describes these actions as “grey zone” tactics designed to exhaust Taiwan’s forces psychologically and operationally without crossing the threshold into open war.
Taiwan’s Military Response Strategy
According to the defence ministry, Taiwan has established clear procedures to raise combat readiness if Chinese drills show signs of turning into real attacks. Central to this strategy is a decentralised command model. If Chinese forces were to launch a surprise assault, frontline units would not wait for approval from higher headquarters but would immediately carry out assigned combat missions under a system of “distributed control”.
This approach reflects Taiwan’s concern that any Chinese offensive would aim to paralyse command-and-control systems in the opening stages of conflict. By empowering units to act independently, Taipei hopes to preserve combat effectiveness even if communications are disrupted by missile strikes, cyberattacks or electronic warfare.
Defence Minister Wellington Koo is expected to face questioning in parliament over how prepared the military truly is, as lawmakers scrutinise whether these doctrinal shifts are sufficient to deter or withstand a rapid escalation.
China’s Expanding Military Pressure
The defence ministry report also highlights how China is broadening the geographic scope of its military operations. Chinese warships are now operating further into the Pacific Ocean and increasingly sailing south toward Australia and New Zealand, signalling an ambition to project power well beyond the Taiwan Strait.
Taipei says Chinese exercises are becoming more realistic and combat-oriented, moving away from symbolic drills toward regular, multi-service training that rehearses scenarios for attacking Taiwan. The ministry stressed that Beijing has never renounced the use of force to achieve unification and continues to treat military coercion as a central policy tool.
Political Tensions Across the Strait
Beijing strongly rejects Taiwan’s claims of self-rule and insists the island is an inseparable part of China. Taiwan’s government, led by President Lai Ching-te, counters that only the Taiwanese people can decide their future.
China’s defence ministry on Monday accused Lai of exaggerating the military threat and deliberately stoking fear to advance pro-independence politics. It warned that “preparing for war to seek independence” was dangerous and urged Taiwanese citizens to recognise what it called the risks created by their leadership.
Why It Matters
Taiwan’s emphasis on rapid, decentralised response underscores how seriously it views the possibility of a surprise Chinese attack. Rather than a slow-building invasion, Taipei increasingly fears a sudden escalation that leaves little time for political decision-making or international reaction. This has major implications not only for Taiwan’s own defence planning but also for the United States and regional allies who would be forced to respond quickly to any conflict.
The situation also highlights how the Taiwan Strait has become one of the most volatile flashpoints in global geopolitics, with regular military manoeuvres blurring the line between deterrence and preparation for war.
What Comes Next
Chinese military pressure is unlikely to ease, particularly as Beijing seeks to test the resolve of Taiwan’s new leadership and its international partners. Taiwan, for its part, is expected to further refine its asymmetric and decentralised defence doctrines, investing in mobility, survivability and rapid decision-making at lower levels of command.
Parliamentary scrutiny of defence preparedness will intensify, while cross-strait rhetoric is likely to harden as both sides frame the other as the destabilising actor.
Analysis
Taiwan’s push toward decentralised command reflects a broader strategic shift shaped by lessons from modern conflicts, where communications are vulnerable and speed is decisive. It signals realism about the imbalance of forces between Taiwan and China, but also confidence that resilience and initiative could complicate any Chinese campaign. At the same time, Beijing’s expanding military footprint suggests it is normalising pressure as a constant feature of cross-strait relations. The danger lies in miscalculation: as drills grow more realistic and responses more automated, the margin for error shrinks, increasing the risk that a routine manoeuvre could spiral into open conflict.
With information from Reuters.
