The National Citizen Party (NCP) emerged directly from the youth-led uprising that forced Sheikh Hasina from power in 2024. Formed by students and young activists who had become the face of the mass revolt, the party sought to translate protest momentum into a formal political movement capable of breaking Bangladesh’s long-entrenched two-party dominance. The NCP positioned itself as a fresh alternative promising transparency, accountability, and an end to dynastic politics. However, as the country moves towards national elections scheduled for February, the party’s weaknesses have become increasingly visible. Despite strong public interest at its launch, opinion polls now place it at just six percent support, raising doubts about whether a movement driven by moral legitimacy and street mobilisation can actually make electoral inroads without organisational depth and resources.
Why It Matters
The NCP’s trajectory matters because it represents a broader test of youth-led politics in South Asia. The movement that toppled Hasina captured global attention for its spontaneity, diversity and generational energy; its failure or success will signal whether such uprisings can evolve into lasting political institutions. Bangladesh’s political order is also at a potential turning point: an NCP breakthrough, even modest, would challenge the decades-long binary between the Awami League and the BNP. The stakes extend beyond politics as well. With the Awami League still banned from contesting elections and warning of unrest, the resulting uncertainty threatens the stability of Bangladesh’s garment export industry, a central pillar of the national economy. At the same time, the NCP’s reluctance to take clear positions on issues such as women’s rights and minority protections has created unease among supporters who saw the uprising as a chance to push the country toward more inclusive politics. The party’s evolution will shape not only electoral outcomes but also the broader rights landscape.
The NCP itself is at the centre of the unfolding political story: young, ambitious and symbolically powerful, yet hampered by limited networks, scarce funding and internal tensions. The BNP, currently leading polls, is a key player, seeking ways to either partner with the youthful movement or absorb some of its leaders to consolidate opposition strength. Jamaat-e-Islami, polling second, is another potential ally, though its ideological distance from the student movement complicates negotiations. Meanwhile, the Awami League, though barred from the ballot, remains influential and continues to assert itself through warnings of unrest, trying to maintain relevance despite its exclusion. Students and civil society groups who drove the original protests are divided; some still see the NCP as a vehicle for transformative politics, while others are now disappointed by what they view as inconsistencies and a lack of principled stances. Businesses, investors and Bangladesh’s global partners also have a major stake in a stable political transition, particularly given the country’s reliance on international textile markets and supply chains.
What’s Next
In the coming weeks, the NCP must decide whether to pursue alliances with larger parties such as the BNP or Jamaat-e-Islami, a move that may improve its chances of winning seats but could undermine the distinctiveness that initially attracted young voters. The party continues to court the public through its unusual candidate search, which has drawn ordinary citizens into the political process and showcased its desire to democratise representation. Yet organisational weaknesses remain deep, and the NCP still needs to clarify its positions on key social issues if it hopes to regain credibility among early supporters. Regardless of its performance in February, the party’s leaders insist they are thinking long-term, aiming to build durable structures rather than relying solely on revolutionary momentum. At the same time, uncertainty looms over the broader political environment, as the Awami League’s exclusion from the polls could trigger instability. How the NCP navigates these pressures will determine whether it becomes a lasting political force or a short-lived product of a moment of upheaval.
With information from Reuters.
