After two years of relentless warfare between Israel and Hamas, a breakthrough appears to have emerged through a U.S.-brokered agreement under President Donald Trump. Announced in early October 2025, the deal marks the first phase of Trump’s broader 20-point Gaza peace framework.
The accord reached through indirect talks in Egypt promises a ceasefire, Israeli troop withdrawal to a designated “yellow line,” and the release of all hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody.
The announcement came just after the second anniversary of Hamas’s 2023 attack on Israel, which triggered one of the most devastating conflicts in Gaza’s history. Trump’s team portrays this as a landmark step toward ending the war and resetting Middle Eastern diplomacy, though many observers remain skeptical about the plan’s feasibility and durability.
Uncertain Future of Gaza’s Governance
At the heart of the uncertainty lies the question of Gaza’s post-war administration. Trump’s original framework envisions the eventual reintroduction of the Palestinian Authority (PA) into Gaza, but only after it undergoes what he calls “major reforms.” Both Israel and Western powers insist Hamas cannot retain political control, given its record and designation as a terrorist organization. However, Hamas has run Gaza since 2007, and it has categorically rejected any foreign-led or externally imposed government.
In statements following the deal, Hamas said it would hand over governance only to a Palestinian technocratic administration supervised by the PA and supported by Arab and Muslim states. It also rejected any role for former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who, under Trump’s plan, would co-chair an international “Board of Peace” overseeing Gaza’s transition.
This tension reveals the core dilemma of the agreement: while it promises an end to the fighting, it does not yet answer the political question of what comes after.
Key Provisions of the Deal
Immediate Ceasefire: Both sides agreed to halt hostilities.
Hostage-Prisoner Exchange: All hostages alive or deceased to be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
Israeli Troop Withdrawal: Israel will pull back to a “yellow line” inside Gaza within 24 hours of deal approval.
Implementation Timeline: Hostage release expected within 72 hours of Israel’s approval, possibly starting Saturday.
Post-War Administration: Future governance of Gaza remains undecided; the plan envisions a temporary “Board of Peace” led by Trump and former UK PM Tony Blair.
Guarantees: Egypt and other “guarantor states” expected to oversee compliance.
Risks and Fragilities
Despite the optimism surrounding the ceasefire announcement, the deal remains fragile. Hamas has refused to surrender its weapons or dissolve its military wing, insisting that disarmament cannot occur while Israeli forces remain in any part of Palestinian territory. For Israel, this is a non-negotiable demand, creating a potential impasse before the next phase even begins.
The proposed “Board of Peace” also faces legitimacy challenges. Hamas and several Arab commentators have already criticized the idea of an international governing body headed by Trump and Blair as a form of neo-colonial oversight, reminiscent of past Western interventions that sidelined Palestinian sovereignty. Meanwhile, within Israel, Netanyahu faces resistance from hardline coalition partners who oppose any deal that could be perceived as a concession to Hamas or as the first step toward a Palestinian state.
Adding to the uncertainty is the absence of a clear timeline for Israeli withdrawal and the lack of a binding enforcement mechanism. Without guarantees, both sides may revert to violence if they perceive the other as stalling or violating the terms.
Stakeholders and Regional Dynamics
The principal actors in this unfolding drama are the United States, Israel, Hamas, and Egypt. The U.S., under Trump’s direct involvement, has positioned itself as both mediator and guarantor of the deal. Israel, under Netanyahu’s leadership, must navigate internal divisions while managing a delicate relationship with Washington. Hamas, though weakened militarily, remains politically entrenched and determined to secure concessions that preserve its influence. Egypt, meanwhile, has reemerged as a vital broker, reinforcing its regional relevance.
Beyond these players, Arab states are watching closely. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan have all expressed conditional support, but they insist that any lasting arrangement must lead to genuine Palestinian self-determination. Without that, they fear the truce will be short-lived and unrest could spread.
Implications and Analysis:
If fully implemented, Trump’s Gaza deal could mark the most significant diplomatic achievement of his presidency. It could also reset the trajectory of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by creating space for a new political arrangement in Gaza. However, its success depends on fragile trust between sworn enemies, a coherent post-war vision, and the ability of international actors to sustain oversight without deepening local resentment.
For now, the ceasefire represents a humanitarian reprieve and a symbolic victory for diplomacy over destruction. But the path forward remains strewn with the same obstacles that have derailed previous efforts mistrust, political fragmentation, and incompatible visions of sovereignty. Whether Trump’s plan becomes a foundation for peace or another fleeting pause in a cycle of war will depend not on signatures in Cairo, but on the political will to turn a temporary truce into a lasting settlement.
With information from Reuters.
