Political, intelligence, and security circles in Beijing are concerned about the proliferation of US military bases in the Gulf and Middle East, particularly given the strong US military presence in the region, with a large number of military bases spread across several Gulf states, such as Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Chinese military circles believe that Sino-US military competition in the Gulf and Middle East could lead to increased tensions with Washington in the region, especially as China seeks to increase its military influence among several Arab, Islamic, and Gulf states.
China has recently sought to establish a number of military bases in the Middle East to protect its extensive economic interests in the region. China seeks to increase its influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative, which includes investments in infrastructure and energy. Meanwhile, the United States views this Chinese activity as a challenge to its influence in the region. China also seeks to participate in peacekeeping and security efforts in the region, which could lead to strong military competition with the United States in this context.
China’s vital infrastructure investments play a key role in strengthening its security presence in the Gulf and Middle East. China requires state-controlled enterprises in certain sectors to be able to service Chinese military assets, leading to debate about the dividing line between China’s commercial and military presence to serve its network of interests abroad. This simultaneous blending of state-controlled commercial enterprises and China’s military presence and influence, referred to as “military-civil fusion,” creates a dilemma in the Middle East. The United States fears that growing Chinese investment in ports and industrial complexes, primarily intended to promote trade between China and its partners in the region and around the world, will also simultaneously support Chinese naval assets and help China expand its military presence in the region.
Consider that China established its first overseas military facility and base in Djibouti in 2017. This Chinese military base is strategically located just 110 kilometers from the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, next to the Suez Canal, a major shipping artery for goods between Europe and Asia. Even before China officially announced the opening of its military base in Djibouti, Chinese companies had poured billions of dollars into Djibouti to develop ports, build railways and airports, and establish a sprawling free trade zone. This means that China’s approach to Djibouti is characteristic of what a number of Chinese military experts and think tanks have described as “civilian first, then military second.” Under this Chinese strategy, China invested in infrastructure for commercial purposes and later converted it to support Chinese military bases around the world. Chinese military experts describe the Djibouti base as a strategic stronghold that helps secure important trade routes. In China, it is known as the “strategic pivot” or “Zhànlüè zhīdiǎn” (战略支).
On the other hand, China is expanding its military cooperation with some Middle Eastern countries by challenging US military influence in the Gulf and Middle East and selling Chinese fifth-generation stealth fighters, known as the J-20, to a number of Gulf states. This comes after the United States refused to sell its fifth-generation stealth fighters, known as the F-35, particularly to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. This came despite the Abraham Accords with the UAE, under the pretext of preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge in the Middle East. To this end, China has exploited these American loopholes to increase the sale of its stealth fighter jets to several Arab and Gulf states, most notably the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, by selling them advanced Chinese weapons and training Emirati, Saudi, and then Egyptian forces. Chinese arms sales to the Gulf states and the region are another feature of China’s security advances in the region. Beijing has successfully targeted the market for armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and fifth-generation stealth fighters, which it has sold and exported to the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as to its ally, Pakistan, which used them in its recent war against India.
Regarding the impact of the growing US military presence on Chinese influence in the Gulf and the Middle East, the United States claims that such a US military presence protects the interests of some countries in the region from security threats and contributes to regional stability. In contrast, the US military presence is a source of concern for both China and its ally, Iran, which views it as interference in the internal affairs of these countries through the imposition of US tutelage. Escalating tensions between the United States and China could complicate the security landscape in the region, especially as each country seeks to strengthen its influence against the other. In short, Chinese and American interests are intertwined in the Middle East, manifested in economic competition, military cooperation with some countries, and each country’s attempts to increase its influence in the region.
On the Iranian side, Iran’s attack on the Qatari Al Udeid Air Base, in response to the US military targeting of several Iranian nuclear facilities after Israel began its aggression on the Gaza Strip, came as a surprise to many observers, especially Qataris. The Qatari Al Udeid Air Base is one of the most prominent US bases in the Middle East, located southwest of Doha. More than 11,000 US troops are stationed there. The importance of the Qatari Al Udeid Air Base lies in its being the largest US military base in the Middle East and hosting the headquarters of US Central Command and US Air Forces Central. For these reasons, the Iranian attack on the Qatari air base came in response to the US using it to launch military strikes against Iran.
The staunch Chinese and Iranian opposition to the US presence in the Gulf is evident in numerous statements and declarations by both Iranian and Chinese political and military officials. With every incident, escalation, or crisis in the region, Iranian statements emerge, with direct Chinese support. These statements explicitly or implicitly refer to the US military presence as a destabilizing factor in the Gulf region, assert that the Gulf states are capable of preserving their own security, that Iran will respond to any threat posed by this presence, and that China will protect the interests of its Iranian partner. Following the US raids on several Iranian nuclear facilities, Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, issued several threats, stating that “Iran will consider the bases used by the United States to strike nuclear facilities as legitimate targets and that there is no longer a place for the United States in the Middle East.” In general, the history of the American military presence, through its bases spread across a number of Gulf states, dates back to strategic partnerships following the 1991 Gulf War, known as “Desert Storm.” When the United States led an international coalition to expel Iraqi forces that had invaded Kuwait, several Gulf states signed defense agreements with Washington during and after the war. It is difficult to accurately track the American presence in the Gulf, as this presence is not limited to fixed military bases but also includes warships, aircraft carriers, and other assets. Besides, the number of troops and their missions are constantly changing.
American military bases across the Middle East have been exposed to severe and imminent danger since the outbreak of the war on the Gaza Strip. American bases in Iraq and Syria were bombed by drones, for which several Iranian-backed Iraqi armed factions claimed responsibility. The Pentagon accuses these groups of being close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. A US base near Erbil Airport in northern Iraq was also targeted by drones immediately after the Gaza war. The Islamic Resistance Movement in Iraq announced in a statement that “in continuation of our approach to resisting the American occupation forces in Iraq and the region, and in response to the massacres committed by the Zionist entity against our people in the Gaza Strip, the Mujahideen of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq attacked the American occupation base near Erbil Airport in northern Iraq with drones.” To protect American military interests, US Army forces have strengthened their air defense network around the Al-Omar oil field and the Conoco natural gas field in Iraq by adding a surveillance balloon over the Al-Omar oil field and deploying anti-aircraft missiles around the Conoco base. In Deir ez-Zor Governorate, US forces, which use the Al-Omar oil field as their largest illegal military base in the countryside of Deir ez-Zor Governorate, launched a surveillance balloon equipped with high-resolution surveillance technology to detect movements around the base, in addition to imaging devices in its vicinity. Considering that US military bases in the Deir ez-Zor countryside in eastern Syria have been subjected to repeated attacks by the Islamic Resistance Movement in Iraq, which has claimed responsibility for most of the attacks, which come in response to the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.
Even before the start of the US confrontation against Tehran’s nuclear facilities, Iranian statements, backed by intelligence, military, and security support from China, all aimed to threaten to target US bases in the region if Washington intervened militarily following a potential breakdown in nuclear talks between the two sides. Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasserzadeh stated that “Tehran has the ability to reach all US bases in its host countries in the region, and if these bases are targeted, the United States will be forced to leave the region.” Even before the US intervention against Iran, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to retaliate against the United States if it entered the war, stating that “The Americans must know that any US military intervention will inevitably be accompanied by irreparable damage.”
Based on the above analysis, we find that as the rivalry between the United States and China intensifies globally and regionally, the repercussions of this rivalry have reached the Middle East and North Africa, where China increasingly rejects relying exclusively on the US security umbrella in the region.
