When viewed solely from a Chinese perspective, often shaped by nationalist narratives, the rise of China offers an incomplete picture. Similarly, an outsider’s observation can also miss key aspects of the broader reality. To get a more balanced and accurate assessment, it is essential to consider both factors. The result of this broader evaluation indicates that China’s rise is more of an exception than the rule.
From a historical angle, China has always been a “land of battles from the four corners”, an ancient concept that originated in ancient China, which I introduced some time ago. This concept has also been applied in modern theories of territorial power to help explain and understand global conflicts. The basic notion is that a typical landlocked country, surrounded on all four sides by neighboring nations, faces a significantly higher likelihood of border conflicts on all fronts. In contrast, a country like the United States, bordered by oceans on two sides, experiences far fewer border-related conflicts. Therefore, the number of neighboring countries and borders plays a critical role in determining a nation’s stability. China’s borders touch 14 neighboring countries, which is second only to Russia in the world. Russia has borders with 16 countries, which contributes to its ongoing instability, and it is still involved in conflict today.
The astonishing number of borders that China shares with other countries proves that China has rarely been a quiet and peaceful place, but rather a nation constantly embroiled in conflict. China’s history fully supports this, with wars and conflicts stretching from China to the northern steppes, from China to the Arab world, from Russia to Japan, and from India to the countries in its southern region. The conflicts between China and its neighboring countries, both internal and external, have been intertwined for centuries. Even when external conflicts paused, internal struggles continued. As a result, wars and conflicts have caused immense losses and destruction, making it difficult for China to achieve an environment conducive to peaceful development. Over the course of millennia of ongoing wars and conflicts, China has lost vast amounts of traditional territory, and its economic development has been severely hindered. Due to both historical and modern factors, such wars and conflicts continue to persist today, as evidenced by the current tensions along the China-India border and the complex disputes in the South Sea.
Fortunately for China, history provided it with a turning point. Due to its global strategy during the Cold War and the need to suppress, divide, and weaken the Soviet bloc, the U.S. extended an olive branch to China, who then seized this rare historical opportunity, transitioning from the periphery of the Cold War’s two major blocs to gradually integrate into the Western camp. Subsequently, with China’s economic reforms and its accession to the WTO, Western markets opened up to China, granting it a significant development opportunity. This period marked a special historical window of opportunity provided by the changing global geopolitical landscape. However, such a historical opportunity is, in fact, an “exception” and is unlikely to be repeated.
When it comes to economic development, China was also presented with what can be described as a “one-time” opportunity. This was the period of the country’s reform and opening-up, a time of rapid economic growth that coincided with the peak of globalization. Globalization certainly did bring about an explosive increase in the global market economy. While there have been previous instances in history of growth resembling globalization, the explosive growth brought about by globalization in the 21st century is unprecedented and has become the very launching pad for China’s rise.
Globalization’s impact extends well beyond trade in goods, encompassing massive capital flows, service trade, and global resource allocation. Many resource-exporting nations have grown in sync with global markets. For example, China’s sustained economic growth has helped revive Russia’s long-stagnant economy. Economists estimate that globalization-driven capital and industrial transfers are six times greater than in earlier periods. China’s rise coincided with this wave, enabling it to seize a historically unique opportunity.
China’s demographic dividend is also unique in its rise. For a long period, China was the most populous country in the world, with a generally young population. This gave China a demographic advantage, which laid the foundation for its rise. China’s advantage lies not only in its large population, but also in the fact that this labor force consists largely of individuals who have risen from poverty. These individuals often worked over 10 hours a day for modest incomes by global standards. Notably, many of them were young and intelligent, deeply rooted in traditional culture, and focused on STEM education, which laid the foundation for China’s technological progress. This rare convergence of factors is unlikely to be replicated elsewhere, making it another exceptional driver of China’s rise.
Resource consumption has been a central aspect of China’s rise. Historically, China has been a vast, resource-rich, and largely self-sufficient nation. It is geographically expansive, rich in minerals, and agriculturally productive. This shaped its traditional views on resource use. However, with globalization, industrial expansion, and rapid economic growth, resource consumption soared. Once-abundant supplies of food, oil, water, and land have been rapidly and cost-effectively depleted. This fueled China’s transformation from poverty to global power, but has also brought it to the brink of resource scarcity today.
Today, droughts in China have become a regular and significant problem. At the same time, with the real estate sector consuming vast amounts of land and large populations migrating from rural areas to cities, the country emerges as the world’s largest importer of food.
China’s early rise was strongly supported by access to abundant internal resources, especially land, at extremely low prices during that time. This enabled the country to rapidly transform from a weakened state into a rising power. However, such rapid and cost-effective resource consumption is a unique case. In societies with established private property rights, this would have been impossible.
A nation’s rise is shaped by multiple factors. China’s reform and opening-up provided the institutional foundation for integrating into the global market. From Cold War dynamics and globalization to the demographic dividend, cheap resource supply, and landmark reforms, these conditions together explain why China’s path is unlikely to be replicated. Its rise remains an enduring exception in global development history.
What then, does the future hold for China?
As things stand, globalization has entered the phase of de-globalization, and the wave of conservatism is sweeping across the globe with unprecedented momentum. The WTO has become increasingly irrelevant, and the world is now navigating a complex rebalancing. At this moment, China is facing the full retreat of its demographic dividend. With a rapidly aging population, the reality of two young people supporting one elderly person is becoming imminent. Meanwhile, China’s once double-digit growth rate during globalization’s peak has steadily declined to around 5%. Despite this, China remains the world’s largest importer of resources.
Given the unprecedented complexity of the current global landscape, China’s strategic options following its rise are significantly constrained. Historically, global geopolitics offers only two viable choices: external balance or internal balance. In this context, China faces a stark “choose one” scenario, with no meaningful alternatives.
