Ethiopia, the most populous and ethnically diverse country in the Horn of Africa, has long been a key player in the region’s geopolitics. As the host of the African Union and an economic and political anchor, Ethiopia once symbolized stability in an otherwise volatile region. Yet today, that image is rapidly unraveling. Since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018, the country’s trajectory has significantly shifted. His repeated and abrupt policy U-turns, both domestically and internationally, have eroded institutional trust, undermined national unity, and destabilized regional dynamics, worse than that, pushed the country to the brink of collapse. Indeed, his eight-year tenure is increasingly defined not by a coherent vision but by erratic decisions and frequent reversals—symptoms of a deeper leadership crisis.
From Reformer to Warmonger
Prime Minister Abiy began his leadership with sweeping reforms that won him global acclaim. His bold move to unconditionally accept the Algiers Peace Agreement and fully implement the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission’s ruling broke a two-decade diplomatic deadlock. His peace overtures culminated in a historic reconciliation between Eritrea and Ethiopia, earning Abiy the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize and positioning Ethiopia as a beacon of regional stability. In his early months, Abiy played a key role in defusing Sudan’s political crisis, preached national unity, and appeared committed to dismantling authoritarian legacies. His initial narrative of reform and peace resonated both domestically and internationally. However, that narrative quickly unraveled.
Policy Reversals and Eroding Credibility
The optimism that marked Abiy’s early tenure gave way to growing disillusionment. In 2020, he launched a full-scale military offensive against the Tigray region, abandoning his peace rhetoric and initiating a brutal civil conflict. He outlawed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—only to reverse course and legalize it two years later, then ban it again recently. Each of these reversals has fueled cycles of violence and mistrust, pushing the country further toward fragmentation.
The inconsistencies extend to his foreign policy. Abiy’s administration signed a controversial agreement with Somaliland, promoting it as a significant step for securing Red Sea access. Weeks later, under international pressure, he signed another deal with Somalia’s federal government, effectively nullifying the original pact and exposing the incoherence of his regional diplomacy.
Abiy has even turned against former allies who fought along with his forces in the Tigray conflict (2020-2022). After arming militias in the Amhara and Afar regions during the conflict, he later launched military operations against these same forces—most notably the Fano militia in Amhara. This repeated betrayal of political and military partners reveals a troubling pattern: strategic alliances are formed and discarded with little warning, further destabilizing Ethiopia’s already fragile landscape.
Undermining Peace, Fueling War
Despite signing the Pretoria Peace Agreement in December 2022 to end the Tigray war, Abiy has failed to uphold its core tenets. He has reinstated travel bans to Tigray and outlawed the TPLF, excluding the group from upcoming elections—actions that effectively dismantle the peace framework. A similar pattern is evident in Oromia, where a peace agreement with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) collapsed after renewed military offensives by the federal government. Instead of fostering reconciliation, these reversals have reignited armed resistance and deepened regional and ethnic grievances. In Oromia and Amhara—two of Ethiopia’s most populous and strategic regions—the state is now locked in active conflict, raising alarms about an impending national rupture. The continued violence and instability, particularly in Oromia and Amhara, have led many observers to warn that Ethiopia’s already tenuous unity may face irreversible damage.
What’s more alarming is that his veiled threats against sovereign states such as Eritrea and Somalia under the pretext of Ethiopia’s right to sea access are proving not only provocative but dangerously counterproductive. Rather than engaging in good-faith negotiations, he has chosen a confrontational approach—one that fuels regional mistrust and deepens suspicions of Ethiopia among its neighbors. There is growing indication that these countries may retaliate by supporting ethnic-based Ethiopian insurgencies in regions like Amhara, Tigray, and the Somali region, further fanning the flames of internal rebellion. In effect, Abiy is throwing stones while living in a house made of glass—provoking external actors while his own nation teeters on the edge of collapse.
These destabilizing dynamics are fueling unprecedented political shifts. For the first time, senior politicians in the Tigray region are seriously contemplating the secession of Tigray from Ethiopia. Previously, such aspirations were confined to fringe movements with limited popular support. Today, however, the sentiment is gaining traction within the mainstream political elite, signaling a dangerous erosion of national unity and a potential disintegration of the federal state. His regional belligerence, layered on top of a crumbling domestic peace process, has only served to entrench Ethiopia’s instability and erode any remaining diplomatic goodwill.
A Leader Increasingly Isolated
Indeed, what distinguishes the current crisis in the Amhara and Oromia regions from previous ones is PM Abiy’s growing isolation. During the Tigray War, his campaign was supported by Eritrean forces and regional militias. Today, those actors are either alienated or openly hostile. With waning domestic alliances and diminished international credibility, Abiy’s government appears increasingly cornered. Moreover, his recent veiled threats against Eritrea—alongside an aggressive push for coastal access—signal a dangerous shift in Ethiopia’s regional posture. The risk of renewed war with Eritrea looms large, compounding the internal fractures already straining the state.
The Role of the International Community
The international community bears some responsibility for failing to check Abiy’s militarization of politics. Despite early praise and a Nobel Prize, the global response to Ethiopia’s descent into violence has been muted and inconsistent. Now more than ever, external actors must press for genuine dialogue, accountability, and a return to constitutional order. Peace agreements must be treated as binding commitments, not tools of convenience. The prime minister must be reminded that undermining such accords while issuing threats to neighbors only accelerates Ethiopia’s internal collapse.
Conclusion: A Nation on the Edge
Over the past eight years, Ethiopia has shifted from a symbol of African reform to a nation teetering on the edge of fragmentation. The core driver of this descent has been the consistent inconsistency of Abiy Ahmed’s policies—marked by reversals, broken promises, and increasingly authoritarian tendencies. With a population exceeding 100 million and a critical role in regional peace and integration, Ethiopia cannot afford further instability. The stakes are too high—not just for Ethiopians, but for the entire Horn of Africa and beyond. Ethiopia stands at a crossroads. Without a decisive course correction and a return to principled leadership, the cost of continued policy U-turns may be the disintegration of the state itself. The initial promise of reform has been replaced by cycles of conflict, broken agreements, and a dangerous centralization of power that alienates major regional and political actors.
Consequently, the current trend in Ethiopia is alarming — state collapse is becoming an increasingly likely scenario. If that happens, the repercussions will be felt far beyond the Horn of Africa. Already, Europe is grappling with a migrant crisis stemming from relatively smaller and less populous countries. If Ethiopia — a regional giant — falls apart, the result will be a colossal humanitarian catastrophe, with an unprecedented number of migrants seeking refuge abroad, particularly in Europe. Adding to the growing instability, medical staff in Ethiopia have begun striking, and there is rising concern that teachers may soon join them. Such developments are creating widespread unrest and edging the country toward ungovernability. It’s worth recalling that the popular protests that led to the fall of the previous government in 2018 began in a similar fashion. Against this backdrop, Abiy Ahmed’s time in power appears to be running out, as public discontent builds and state institutions weaken.
Therefore, it is high time for European diplomats and policymakers to acknowledge the magnitude of the crisis and take proactive steps. They must hold Ethiopia’s leadership accountable, support inclusive political dialogue, and exert diplomatic pressure to halt the cycle of violence and restore a credible path toward peace. Ignoring Ethiopia’s downward spiral risks triggering not only a regional implosion but also a massive global displacement crisis that no country can afford to ignore.
