Three years ago, Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As the war goes on and the situation on the battlefield changes regularly, explanations for its emergence have remained static. Some commentators, such as John Mearsheimer, still argue it was the West’s fault for upsetting the balance of power with Russia. By enlarging NATO eastward and warming up ties with Ukraine, the West created a situation that inevitably led to war, the narrative goes.
The remedy for the situation appears obvious: Ukraine should become a neutral buffer zone between Russia and the West. Only then would the balance be secured again and peace could emerge. But a closer look at the different sides of this conflict should lead us to ask: what balance was actually upset?
The EU alone has four times Russia’s population and nine times its GDP. The United States’s economy is, in nominal terms, even 13 times larger. The US and the EU are much more powerful than Russia due to their economic development and larger populations. Even if the Western alliance were to break up, Russia could not catch up with the hard power of either one.
So how can there be a “balance” between Russia and the West? As long as Russia does not become much more powerful or the West becomes much weaker, the US and the EU will be greater powers than Russia. But obviously one cannot reasonably expect the US to drastically reduce its economic output or the EU to kick out its eastern members just to please Russia.
The reality is that Russia is not in any position to “balance” the West. Even if the US reduced its military budget—as President Trump recently floated—the economic disparities between the two nations mean that the US could easily outspend Russia’s armed forces if they decided to do so. The same goes for the EU. After decades of lackluster military spending, its members are now arming themselves. Denmark alone has 20% of Russia’s GDP with a population of only six million. Europe, too, can become much more powerful than Russia on the battlefield.
These facts undermine any visions of a balance between Russia and the EU or the US. Both are simply much stronger than Russia through their economic might and their population sizes. The most Russia can do is sow chaos and inflict small wounds, hoping the US or the EU retreats or collapses. Their only weapon is psychological warfare.
Part of this psychological warfare is the narrative that Russia cannot be defeated, that it deserves a sphere of influence as a great power. It is gaining some success with this attempt to brainwash Western audiences. A victory in Ukraine would only embolden Russia in its own delusions.
The problem is not that the West has upset a balance with Russia. It is that Russian leadership believes that such a balance existed in the first place—and that there is a chance of restoring it. But since the end of the Soviet Union, Russia has not been on par with the US or the EU.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine was motivated by a futile desire to be a global power. Even if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not create a balance with the West. It will only cause immense suffering in Ukraine while achieving little on a global scale. At most, this war benefits Putin’s personal goals. This will embolden his psychological attacks on the powers larger than him and the cruel displays of hard power towards those who are weaker.
It is not the West that must learn the realities of power politics, but Russia. Russia must understand it is not a global power. Everyone who entertains contradictory delusions causes much damage to the international order. In fact, to create a feasible balance, Russia must be shown its place. Putin must learn the realities of power politics—something that Western leaders seemed intent on shielding him from. Instead of worrying about upsetting Russia, they must ensure Putin loses in Ukraine and loses decisively.
A loss in Ukraine may not end Vladimir Putin’s grip on Russia, but it could soften Russia’s imperial ambitions by highlighting the fact that it does not play in the league of great powers anymore. This would be preferable to a rogue Russia causing chaos all over the world in its pursuit of an impossible goal. Ultimately, Ukraine’s victory could stabilize international relations to a great degree. It would be for the benefit of everyone.
