The title of French writer Marcel Proust’s seven-volume novel (1913-1927), In Search of Lost Time, seems perfect for Donald Trump’s current economic crusade against countries that, according to him, “steal from America,” including China. In fact, the US president dreams of a world that no longer exists from a geopolitical and economic point of view, a “Fordist world’ that ended in the 1970s.
Donald Trump’s Fordist dream, from a time when the US was the world’s leading manufacturing and geopolitical power, reflects the desire of part of the US population, the so-called “Deep America,” which, for some analysts, has not adapted to or accepted the technological transformations and development of part of the periphery of capitalism since the 1970s. We propose considering this process to understand the logic of Trump’s current economic “crusade.”
The US is in decline. Theorists, such as Immanuel Wallerstein (The Decline of American Power) and Giovanni Arrighi (The Crisis of the Current Systemic Cycle of Accumulation Led by Washington), have created a coherent analysis of capitalism and the role of the US in the post-war period. The current US government seems to recognize this and is trying to reverse this process in every way. As we can see, this process takes place in a truculent and irrational manner. The attacks on the BRICS and China, and even on historic allies like the Europeans, for example, attest to reality: the rise of nations that are increasingly distant from Washington’s once geopolitical and economic influence.
There was no return to the postwar period. Another important aspect to be analyzed is the departure of US industries to Asia, for example, from the 1970s onwards, or even their relocation to Mexico. Rising labor costs and technological advances have led US companies to seek competitive solutions. It was the so-called crisis of Fordism: high wages in the US and Europe, falling profit rates, and declining productivity.
Southeast Asia, in the 1980s/1990s, became the preferred area to receive investments in search of better conditions: governments with dictatorial regimes (e.g., South Korea) and China, which was experimenting with opening up in the 1980s. Both nations can be considered as examples. The conditions were favorable for the companies that were arriving: cheap labor, weak or nonexistent unionization, permissive environmental laws, support from the regimes, and other factors.
Contrary to what Donald Trump claims, it wasn’t Asian countries that “stole” industries or jobs from the US population: it was the country’s business community that preferred to increase its profitability and productivity by moving its industries to environments more favorable to the reproduction of capital.
The high wages in the US industry, compared to other countries, made final production costs more expensive. No businessman would keep his costs high in the face of foreign competition in order to keep jobs at home for “nationalist” reasons.
The current Trumpist crusade demonstrates a distorted view of the reality. The US president is trying to construct his own vision to justify the country’s current process of economic and geopolitical weakening, which blames the US elites for the mistakes they have made in running the country over time. It is necessary to recognize that Democrats and Republicans were responsible for this process, because in the 20th century, they led the country without interruption. Now, we have to recognize that the world has changed economically and, most importantly, geopolitically.
If in the Cold War the USSR was a threat to US power exclusively from an ideological point of view, in the 21st century China is a real economic “threat” due to Beijing’s great capacity, especially under the leadership of Xi Jinping, to have a coherent and consistent geo-economic project that combines technological, economic, military, and geopolitical diversification. China is building a world that is favorable to its interests through its soft power.
On the other hand, Donald Trump is trying to put the brakes on this process and is trying to take on the role of protagonist in bringing the country back to the “glories” of the past. However, the past does not repeat itself; when it does, it is only a farce. Trump’s crusade against the “infidels” will cause more problems than reverse the decline. The absence of a more refined understanding of the current reality will lead, at the hands of Donald Trump, to an even greater abyss for the US vis-à-vis China.
Beijing has presented an image of sobriety in the face of Washington’s attacks, responding to Trump’s actions in a way that is always based on an attempt at dialogue rather than a rupture. Today, China stands for wisdom and stability in the face of a radicalized US that encourages international economic disorder. Beijing presents itself as an important leader in the face of the challenges posed by Donald Trump. Trump undoubtedly increased the loss of soft power built up in the 20th century and left the country even weaker in economic and leadership terms.
Will the 21st century be the “Chinese Century? If Washington passed over the next four years, it seems.
