Russia’s deadly attack on Ukraine’s northeastern city of Sumy, which killed at least 34 people, is yet another war crime and a challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent suggestion that it was a “mistake.” For several weeks now, concern over the growing threat of conflict with Russia prompted European leaders to prepare the public for war. The European Union Commission has directed EU citizens to stockpile enough food and other essential supplies to sustain them for at least 72 hours in the event of a crisis.
The commission stressed the need for Europe to shift its mindset, to foster a culture of “preparedness” and “resilience.”
The 18-page document warned that Europe is facing a new reality marred with risk and uncertainty, citing Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, rising geopolitical tensions, sabotage of critical infrastructure, and electronic warfare as prominent factors.
“New realities require a new level of preparedness in Europe,” President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said in a statement. “Our citizens, our Member States, and our businesses need the right tools to act both to prevent crises and to react swiftly when a disaster hits.”
The Commission intends to “develop guidelines to reach a population self-sufficiency of minimum 72 hours,” according to the new strategy’s action plan.
Hadja Lahbib, the European commissioner in charge of preparedness and crisis management, posted on X, “Ready for anything – this must be our new European way of life.”
The Commission points to escalating geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing threat posed by Russia, including its war of aggression in Ukraine and potential hybrid attacks like cyberattacks and sabotage on European infrastructure. These could destabilize essential services like power, fuel, or healthcare systems.
The growing risks of climate change, such as floods, wildfires, heatwaves, and storms, are also seen as immediate and intensifying threats, with recent natural disasters in countries like Spain and Poland underscoring the need for readiness. The possibility of other crises, including pandemics or even armed aggression against EU states, adds to the urgency.
The Commission emphasized that the EU’s “pillars of peace and stability are no longer guaranteed,” a shift attributed to these multifaceted risks. This push also builds on lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic, which exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains and the need for coordinated resilience. The strategy aims to foster a “culture of preparedness” across all levels of society, complementing efforts to enhance stockpiling, early warning systems, and civil-military cooperation at the governmental level.
The growing possibility of a war between Russia and Western powers, particularly NATO or the European Union is a topic of intense debate among experts, but most agree that it remains an absolute possibility even with American intervention. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains the primary lens through which they evaluate this threat.
Many experts argue, however, that a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO is unlikely in the near term due to Russia’s current military and economic constraints. Russia has suffered significant losses in Ukraine – estimated at over 600,000 casualties since February 2022 and substantial equipment depletion, including thousands of tanks and artillery systems.
Regardless, NATO has warned Russia against further attacks in Europe, vowing that the alliance would defend its members.
Secretary-General Mark Rutte declared that NATO would protect Poland and others, and that its reaction to any aggression would be “devastating.”
Likewise, French President Emmanuel Macron warned Russia as he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for trilateral talks prior to the summit with dozens of EU leaders in Paris to discuss how to strengthen military support for Ukraine, review ceasefire efforts, and assess what role they could play if a peace deal is struck with Russia. Macron warned that European troops deployed to Ukraine would respond to a Russian attack.
Russia’s battlefield advantage may decline by late 2025 or into 2026 as its Soviet-era stockpiles dwindle and its defense industry struggles to keep pace with losses. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) similarly noted that Russia faces mounting challenges, including unsustainable vehicle losses and recruitment difficulties, which could force President Vladimir Putin to make tough choices by 2026 or 2027 unless Western support for Ukraine falters. These constraints suggest Russia lacks the capacity to open a new front against NATO soon.
However, the possibility of a longer-term risk exists, particularly if Russia perceives weakness in the West. NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, and the alliance’s Military Committee Chair, Admiral Rob Bauer, have indicated that NATO must prepare for a potential conflict within the next few years, with 2025–2026 often cited as a critical window. This concern is fueled by Russia’s military buildup near NATO’s eastern flank, its hybrid warfare tactics, and Putin’s rhetoric about countering Western influence. German military leaks reported in early 2025 speculated about Russian escalation scenarios, including a possible, albeit hypothetical, move against the Baltic states or the Suwałki Gap.
What happens next is crucial. If Russia achieves a decisive victory or a favorable ceasefire in 2025 – potentially influenced by U.S. policy shifts under Trump, who has vowed to negotiate an end to the conflict, experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) suggest Putin might be emboldened to test NATO’s resolve elsewhere.
However, a prolonged stalemate or Ukrainian success could deter further aggression by exposing Russia’s vulnerabilities. Zelenskyy has argued that a united Western response would likely force Russia to relent and finally engage in diplomacy.
The issue of intent is crucial as well. The U.S. intelligence community’s 2024 assessment concluded that Russia “almost certainly does not want a direct military conflict” with the West, preferring to avoid NATO’s collective might. However, it is possible that Putin views the Ukraine war as part of a broader struggle against the West.
While a war with Russia in 2025 seems improbable given its current overextension, experts caution that the risk could rise in the medium term (2026–2028) if Russia recovers militarily and perceives NATO as divided or hesitant. In fact, some experts believe Russia could win a war against NATO countries.
The consensus hinges on deterrence; sustained Western support for Ukraine and NATO cohesion are seen as critical to preventing escalation. However, uncertainties, such as Russia’s internal stability, keep the question open-ended, with probabilities ranging from low to a more alarming potential if conditions shift dramatically.
