In an era defined by interconnected economies, a single tariff can ripple across continents, reshaping trade routes and political alliances. The specter of a new trade war looms, casting a long shadow over global markets and forcing nations to reassess their strategic partnerships. At the heart of this unfolding drama lies the complex relationship between the United States and China, a dynamic that CGTN political analyst Xu Qinduo dissects with keen insight, revealing the delicate balance between economic interdependence and geopolitical rivalry.
Recently, Modern Diplomacy had the opportunity to speak with Mr. Qinduo, diving deep into the intricacies of these international economic tensions. Our conversation ranged from the immediate impacts of Trump-era tariffs to the long-term strategic positioning of global powers. His insights offer a nuanced perspective on the challenges and potential pathways forward in this rapidly evolving global landscape.
“The latest hearing of US consumers, US exporters, in terms of finding the ships made in China, or owned by China, you will face a fine of 50 million US dollars,” Mr. Qinduo points out. This, he argues, is a move that transcends established WTO rules, signaling a new era of unpredictable economic tactics. Such actions, he believes, are “lowering the threshold” of what constitutes acceptable trade dispute behavior.
The implications of these policies extend far beyond the immediate US-China relationship. “We are seeing a fragmented globalization, to say the least,” Mr. Qinduo observes. This fragmentation breeds uncertainty, forcing global shipping companies to prepare for worst-case scenarios and ultimately diminishing profits for all involved, including US exporters.
Mr. Qinduo emphasizes the potential for a more collaborative approach. “There are a lot of areas of negotiation and complementarity,” he asserts. He highlights the irony of the US complaining about trade deficits while simultaneously restricting the sale of advanced chips and military equipment to China. “That’s not really wise,” he says, underscoring the long-term damage such policies inflict on US companies by limiting their access to the lucrative Chinese market.
China, meanwhile, is strategically navigating this turbulent environment by focusing on bolstering domestic consumption and investing heavily in innovation, particularly in cutting-edge technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing. “We are seeing deep sea and underground robots, and also, if you look at the installation of robots, China is the number one in the factories,” Mr. Qinduo explains.
Externally, China is actively pursuing deeper global integration through initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and applications to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). “They want to be part of this group. And of course, China will follow the rules,” Mr. Qinduo states. He also points to the Belt and Road Initiative as a testament to China’s commitment to fostering connectivity and shared prosperity.
The European Union, caught between its economic reliance on China and its political alignment with the US, faces a particularly challenging dilemma. Mr. Qinduo suggests that the EU needs a “reality check” regarding its relationship with Washington. “I think it’s the tipping point for the European Union to have a reality check about, say, strategic autonomy, defense, economy, technology, etc,” he says.
He criticizes the politicization of Chinese technology, arguing that it hinders constructive dialogue and cooperation. “We don’t feel any risk by using, by relying on European Technology, or by purchasing European made cars, you know, automobiles or technologies, we don’t see any kind of national threat or danger there. But somehow this, the old Chinese technology, somehow is criticized.” He urges the EU to focus on a “win-win engagement” rather than a zero-sum game.
The concept of “de-risking” from China is also addressed. Mr. Qinduo argues that decoupling is impractical, given China’s position as a manufacturing powerhouse. “You cannot stop consumers from purchasing, you know, high quality EV, for example, with a very competitive price tag,” he points out. He cautions that isolating oneself from the Chinese market could lead to being “left behind” in the race for technological advancement.
The interview also delves into the impact of these economic tensions on developing countries. Mr. Qinduo expresses concern that a global trade war would disproportionately affect these nations, whose economies are less resilient. “They need investment from these more advanced economies so they can grow the economy. And also they need access to the markets,” he explains.
Regarding China’s soft power, Mr. Qinduo emphasizes its multifaceted approach, extending far beyond simple cultural exchange. “The purpose is really to increase the understanding of China,” he states, but this understanding is built on tangible actions. China’s attractiveness to the rising Global South stems from its demonstrated commitment to development without imposing political strings. This approach resonates deeply with nations seeking equitable partnerships, contrasting sharply with historical patterns of Western intervention.
China’s willingness to share its developmental experience, its focus on infrastructure projects through initiatives like the Belt and Road, and its consistent advocacy for a multipolar world order all contribute to its growing influence. Moreover, China’s rapid technological advancements and its increasing role in global innovation create a compelling narrative of progress and possibility, further solidifying its position as a key player in shaping the future of the Global South
In sum, Xu Qinduo’s analysis reveals a world at a critical juncture, where the allure of protectionism clashes with the imperative of global cooperation. The unfolding narrative is not merely about trade deficits and tariffs; it’s about the very architecture of international relations, the delicate balance between national interests and shared prosperity. As nations grapple with the repercussions of fractured globalization and the rise of multipolarity, the path forward demands a departure from outdated zero-sum calculations. Instead, a renewed commitment to dialogue, mutual respect, and a genuine understanding of diverse perspectives is essential.
The challenge lies not only in mitigating immediate economic disruptions but also in forging a new paradigm of global engagement, one that acknowledges the aspirations of the Global South and fosters a more equitable and sustainable future for all. Ultimately, the choices made today will determine whether we descend into an era of fragmented rivalry or ascend towards a more interconnected and harmonious world.
