Judging by recent events, you could easily forget that the UK is no longer part of the EU.
The British PM, Sir Keir Starmer has been centrestage, leading other European countries, in support of Ukraine and its embattled president.
Starmer held top level meetings with EU leaders and even convened a “summit” in the UK to deal with the direct fallout from President Donald Trump’s now infamous Oval Office showdown with his Ukrainian counterpart.
This all took place against a backdrop of the UK seemingly once again gaining a “foothold” in what might be called the EU machinery.
The UK has, of course, already rejoined the EU’s flagship scientific research scheme, Horizon.That means UK-based scientists and institutions will be able to apply for money from the £81bn (€95bn) fund.
It also means the UK will associate to Copernicus, the EU’s £8bn (€9bn) Earth observation programme.
Many predict it is only a matter of time before the EU rejoins another EU flagship programme: the Erasmus youth mobility scheme.
Starmer’s Labour government also said recently that it hopes to reduce barriers to trade, such as by reducing border checks on goods, and to agree a UK–EU security pact.
Britain’s biggest trade unions say the UK should forge much closer ties with Europe amid an increasingly “volatile and unpredictable” global economy.
So, what does all this mean?
Is the UK moving ever closer to being “reunited”, however informally, with the EU that it formally left in 2020.
While Starmer has insisted the UK does not have to choose between closer ties with the EU and with the US, and he has no intention of reversing Brexit, his government appears to be moving far closer to European neighbours than under the Conservatives.
What is clear is that the election of Starmer’s government and its commitment to reset relations with the EU has offerednew opportunities to help reshape that relationship.
Even so, the Centre for European Reform sayd there are “many difficulties” that Starmer still faces in trying to bring about a reset.
The CER,which has offices in Brussels and London, does conclude with a slight note of optimism: the darkening geopolitical situation and the need to generate growth in the British economy make it likely that in the long run both the EU and the UK will seek a more intimate relationship.
It says Keir Starmer’s planned reset of the UK-EU relationship is of “fundamental importance” for both sides, adding that the stagnant British economy needs a better trade deal than that bequeathed by Boris Johnson’s government.
The EU, facing what the CER calls an “unprecedented” set of geopolitical challenges – including a Trumpian America, a dangerous Russia and an unstable Middle East – needs to draw the British closer on foreign, security and defence policy.
The CER, an independent think tank which describes itself as “pro-European but not uncritical”, says, “So far, efforts to achieve a reset have moved slowly.”
It says that “few Britons realise how far the UK’s reputation had sunk” in the eyes of EU leaders, during successive Conservative administrations. They viewed Johnson’s repeated threats to tear up parts of the Withdrawal Agreement that applied to Northern Ireland, a legally-binding international treaty that he himself had negotiated, as “despicable and unserious,” says the CER.
Subsequently Rishi Sunak adopted a “more adult approach” as prime minister, but when Starmer entered 10 Downing Street last year, levels of trust in the UK were still extremely low, it says.
CER predicts that Starmer and his ministers will find it a “hard slog” to get their reset with the EU but remains “cautiously optimistic” that they will make some progress.
One thing that has changed since the Brexit referendum of 2016 is the geopolitical context, for both the UK and the EU. Russia, for many, is now a real threat to European security. China, though not a military threat, is an increasingly assertive and muscular super-power.
Opinions differ, adds the CER, on whether Trump’s return could help or hinder Starmer’s reset.
“There is,” it argues, “a school of thought on the right of the British and American political spectrums which notes that Trump dislikes the EU but has some sympathies for the UK. This school argues that Trump will offer the UK a special deal – perhaps including elements of a trade agreement and exemptions from the tariffs that he may impose on the EU – on condition that London distances itself from Brussels.”
Given the close UK-US security ties, the argument goes, the British would be obliged to do Trump’s bidding.
Despite growing optimism among those who voted for the UK to remain in the EU – nearly half of those who voted in the 2016 Referendum lest that be forgotten – there are still ongoing reminders of the continuing fall out caused by Britain’s exit from the now-27 strong bloc.
This came recently with, for example,Belgium’s customs service reminding travellers that stricter post-Brexit regulations apply to goods bought in the UK.
Anyone traveling by train and bringing items worth more than €300 into Belgium must now declare them to customs. For those arriving by boat or plane, the threshold is €430.
“Shoppers will, of course, quickly reach that amount and must therefore declare their purchases upon their arrival in Brussels,” said customs administrator general Kristian Vanderwaeren.
It all adds to the pain suffered by businesses on both sides of the English Channel since Brexit.
One small business that has felt this particularly sharply is Stonemanor, a long established British store in Belgium, which has experienced huge problems importing goods from the UK.
Its owner, Ryan Pearce, told Modern Diplomacy, “The biggest issue is limitations in cost effectively getting goods direct from the UK to Belgium as normally we are exporting 1,000s of different types of goods per week it makes the process very timely and costly, so we now limit our range of goods coming direct from the UK and order mostly bulk purchases to simplify this process and keep the pricing more attractive for customers.
“Also the customs process can (and has done previously) cause delays in shipping, which is why we are not able to export fresh goods from the UK anymore.If a fresh shipment gets delayed by 1-2 days we risk throwing away between €10,000 to €15,000 worth of goods at any one time and the time to financially recover from that would be too much to risk working on retail margins.
“Many of the products that we would want to supply using chilled supply would require Veterinary certification, again adding to the cost of the goods.”
Further reflection comes from Nick Thomas-Symonds, now the UK minister responsible for the reset, who says the EU and Britain have a “mutual goal of reaching a better UK EU relationship.”
“It is obvious to me that at a time of such intense global change, the UK and the EU have many mutually aligned interests and challenges,” he said.
“In the UK and indeed in Brussels we are clear-eyed about the scale of challenges that we face and the opportunities for growth and innovation,”added Thomas-Symonds, whose official title is Minister for the Constitution and European Union Relations.
What is undeniable is that the European Union is the UK’s biggest trading partner, with trade totalling – in 2023 – over £800bn.
Many of each side’s best education and science facilities have lifelong links and collaboration on research and development has been the springboard for hugely successful innovations that have driven growth and jobs.
“And,” added the UK Minister, “in a more uncertain world, we are regularly reminded that allies are more secure together than they are apart.”
He says the UK Government’s position is simple: the UK and the EU are linked through trade and international organisations like NATO and, even though the UK voted to leave the EU, its role as key allies and trade partner remains.
“We know that for these relationships to flourish, trust is a vital ingredient.”
Trade, of course, is a key element of any reset and there’s little doubting the impact Brexit has had on trade flows between the two sides.
A study published last year showed that between 2021 and 2023, the goods EU businesses exported to the UK were down by no less than 32 per cent while UK goods exported to the EU were down by 27%.
“That,” said Thomas-Symonds, “is not good for British business or European businesses especially at a time when our economies need a kickstart.”
He believes reducing trade barriers is of mutual benefit to the UK and the EU and adds, “The time for ideologically-driven division is over. The time for ruthless pragmatism is now. It is through a new partnership between the UK and the EU that we will deliver for the people of the United Kingdom, and for people across the continent.”
For now, the UK and EU seem to be edging that bit closer once again, albeit at a relative snail’s pace. That will bring some, however small, comfort to Remainers while causing no degree of angst for Leavers like Nigel Farage.
But whether this proves the springboard for more substantial and longer-lasting ties between the UK and EU, or something rather less significant, remains to be seen.
