For years, Latin America’s political balance rested on a familiar assumption: Brazil leads, Mexico follows. Brazil, with its continental scale, resource wealth, and international ambition, shaped the regional agenda—from BRICS summits to global climate diplomacy. Mexico, by contrast, was often perceived as too absorbed by its northern border, too enmeshed in NAFTA to shape continental dynamics.
But regional influence doesn’t follow tradition. It follows momentum.
And as of 2025, that momentum is shifting.
While Brazil navigates internal uncertainty, Mexico is rising—steadily, pragmatically, and without fanfare. This isn’t simply a story about GDP. It’s about structural positioning, diplomatic maturity, and the ability to offer something Latin America badly needs: coherence and credibility.
The diminishing role of Brazil
Brazil’s economy grew 2.9% in 2023, driven in part by a strong agricultural performance. But that number hides deeper fragilities. Inflation remains a persistent threat; the Brazilian real lost over 20% of its value against the dollar within months, and investor confidence continues to deteriorate.
Internally, Brazil is consumed by political gridlock, public dissatisfaction, and a slowing reform agenda. Its diplomatic presence—once central to regional negotiations—has become reactive and fragmented. The country that once shaped Latin America’s collective voice now struggles to maintain its own narrative.
What’s left is a vacuum of regional leadership—and power vacuums never remain unfilled for long.
Mexico’s rise isn’t loud, but it’s real.
Mexico’s strength today is not rhetorical. It’s strategic. The country grew 3.2% in 2023 and, more importantly, positioned itself at the heart of North American supply chains. As the U.S. decouples from China and nearshoring becomes the new industrial logic, Mexico is now the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing China in volume and relevance.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is functioning not just as a trade framework but also as a geopolitical safety net for Mexico. It anchors the country inside one of the most powerful economic blocs in the world. While others in the region negotiate trade bilaterally or struggle with isolationism, Mexico is structurally embedded in the global economy.
This is not accidental. It is the result of decades of integration, macroeconomic discipline, and a geography that now works in Mexico’s favor.
A new stress test: Trump returns
Just as Mexico’s profile stabilizes, it now faces a familiar—but newly complex—challenge: a second Trump presidency.
In March 2025, President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, reviving trade tensions not seen since his first term. The move rattled markets and raised concerns about the future of USMCA, nearshoring, and economic predictability in North America.
Mexico’s response, however, marked a shift in tone and maturity. President Claudia Sheinbaum, just months into her presidency, approached the moment with calm pragmatism. Her administration reminded Washington of Mexico’s active cooperation on security and migration—particularly the record seizures of fentanyl and the deployment of 10,000 National Guard troops to the border.
Through direct engagement with Trump’s team, Sheinbaum negotiated a temporary suspension of the tariffs. The tone was respectful, the message was firm, and the outcome—though temporary—demonstrated that Mexico has learned how to negotiate under pressure without capitulation.
Whether tariffs return remains to be seen. But Mexico’s ability to deescalate, communicate, and preserve bilateral trust—even under a volatile partner—will be critical not just for itself, but for how other Latin American countries see it.
The opportunity in front of Mexico
What makes this moment unique isn’t just that Mexico is doing well. It’s that no one else in Latin America is positioned to lead.
Argentina is recovering from an economic crisis. Chile is focused inward. Colombia and Peru are balancing domestic polarization. And Brazil, for now, is absent.
Latin America doesn’t need a new hegemon. It needs a stable platform for coordination. A country that can convene, not dominate. One that can link regional needs with global mechanisms.
Mexico is best placed to do that—but only if it reimagines its regional role. That would require investing political capital into Latin American diplomacy, not just trade with the north. It would mean leading conversations on climate transition, energy interdependence, digital policy, and regional infrastructure.
Leadership also demands legitimacy. Mexico will need to confront its unresolved domestic challenges—organized crime, judicial independence, and inequality—to fully project credibility abroad.
Sheinbaum’s foreign policy: Cautious but calculated
President Claudia Sheinbaum represents continuity in many respects. But her tone is different. Her response to Trump’s tariffs was measured and rational. Her discourse on Latin America has been focused less on rhetoric and more on integration, mutual respect, and economic resilience.
This could mark the emergence of a Mexican foreign policy doctrine rooted in moderation, multilateralism, and strategic patience.
That’s the kind of leadership Latin America needs. One not built on charisma or ideological flags—but on institutional consistency, macroeconomic realism, and the ability to manage complexity without collapsing under it.
A Region in Flux, a Window That Won’t Stay Open
The geopolitical shift is real. The Global South is reconfiguring. Supply chains are moving. International institutions are recalibrating.
Mexico is already at the table. The question now is whether it can extend a hand to the rest of Latin America—and offer something beyond bilateralism and trade: a new idea of regional stewardship.
Brazil’s pause is Mexico’s chance. But moments like these don’t last.
If Mexico chooses coherence, clarity, and continental responsibility, it will not just assume leadership. It will define a new model of it—less theatrical, more sustainable, and aligned with the demands of a changing world.
