Energy security is a significant pillar of interdependence in international relations that is translated into continuous access of states to sufficient energy at an affordable price through smooth operation of critical energy infrastructure and supply chains that ensure delivery. Energy security is critical for national security and economic prosperity given that security of energy supply and demand enable the smooth operation of modern economies and determine the linkage between energy, international trade and investments.
The United States traditionally pursues a two-fold grand strategy as a dominant power in the international system that centers on assuring security of energy supply for itself and strategic allies through competition, while favoring interdependence to guarantee cooperation. The second term of President Donald Trump is expected to accelerate enforcement of the American grand strategy on energy security prioritizing the increase of oil and gas production. The energy priorities of the United States have been presented in the American President’s inaugural speech providing the rationale behind them.
As President Trump explicitly highlighted, “The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices, and that is why today I will also declare a national energy emergency. We will drill, baby, drill”. He also stated, “We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export American energy all over the world”, and that “America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have – the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on earth – and we are going to use it. We’ll use it.”
To ensure that American energy priorities are efficiently implemented, the American President established with an executive order the National Energy Dominance Council chaired by the Secretary of the Interior and vice-chaired by the Secretary of Energy. The scope of the Council is to advise the President on strategies that will enable energy dominance through improvement of every stage ranging from permitting and production to distribution and transportation of all forms of American energy. American energy production and consumption derives from hydrocarbons and renewable energy sources. The latter accounted for 8.4 percent of total primary energy production and 21 percent of total utility-scale electricity generation in the United States for 2022, according to information released by the US Energy Information Administration.
The scope of the National Energy Dominance Council is to also recommend to the American President strategies to cut red tape, support private investments and enhance innovation. The lowering of energy prices, a key element of energy security, and the reinforcement of American economic security lie at the core of the unfolding strategy for American energy dominance. The second term of President Trump is expected to follow the steps of his first term during which the United States became a net exporter of energy, the export license procedures for LNG were expedited, and millions of acres for domestic energy development and production were cleared.
Export of American LNG to Europe is Challenged
The profound questions that arise is to what extent the American energy dominance strategy affects geopolitics of energy either in the form of competition over energy resources between the United States and China in the East Mediterranean or in the form of American supply of LNG to third markets, like Europe.
The United States produces 123 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG and can export almost half to destinations where transportation costs are low, and contracts are long-term -more than 20 years- with price linked to the oil price. The war on Ukraine has brought to the forefront, however, spot trade of LNG favoring the emergence of the United States as a credible supplier, and of Balkan and certain European countries as consumers. In 2024, Europe imported 51 bcm of American LNG compared to 62 bcm in 2023. The decrease in American LNG imports is attributed to the high storage of strategic reserves of European countries along with a decline of European demand for gas that left the network of terminals across the European coastline underused.
The export of American LNG to Europe faces three prime challenges as of today. First, LNG charter rates in Atlantic transportation decreased from $200,000 per day in 2023 to $50,000 per day in early 2025, denoting that operating expenses cannot be sufficiently covered even for the United States-Europe short route. The Asia route is long and, therefore, counterproductive. Second, the increase of American drilling and production makes commercially profitable sense, if the oil price per barrel stands at approximately 84 dollars, according to estimates by JP Morgan. However, today’s price stands at 74 dollars for a barrel of crude oil and there are expectations for a further price decline in 2026.
Third, the American plan to increase LNG exports to Europe as a relative short route entails increase of American gas production that is expected to take 2-3 years because of the Biden administration’s restrictions on American energy production and development, such as the institution of a federal oil leasing moratorium.
Given this reality, if increased quantities of American LNG are available after several years, the European market may not be lucrative. The reason is that Europe implements the REPowerEU plan, launched in May 2022, that managed not only to counter Russia’s energy leverage by diversifying energy sources and banning Russian oil imports but also to reduce European gas demand by almost 25 percent in 2024 targeting to further limit gas consumption in the coming years.
The markets, however, that are expected to sustain increased demand for gas are those of the Balkans and Eastern Europe, where most states are landlocked or have short coastlines. The entry of American LNG to the cited markets will continue to naturally occur through Greece further uplifting its strategic partnership with the United States. Greece is a state closest to the Caspian Sea’s gas reserves and the gate for American LNG to the Bakans and continental Europe.
The Offshore Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) in the city of Alexandroupolis located in northeast Greece, that has been installed since December 2023, facilitates the offloading and transfer of 5.5 bcm of natural gas annually. The FSRU received its first American LNG cargo in 2024, highlighting the role of the US as a critical supplier of LNG to Greece and the extended region.
FSRU Alexandroupolis is complemented by the Revithousa LNG Terminal, located southwest of Athens. The latter has been upgraded twice to manage bigger LNG volumes and maintain increased LNG gasification capacity to reinforce security of the gas supply for Greece and the extended region. Revithousa terminal receives American LNG shipments with the United States being the largest LNG supplier to Greece with a 51,2 percent share of all LNG imports in 2022.
“Drill, baby, Drill” Goes Hand in Hand with “Link, baby, Link” in the East Mediterranean
The second Trump term has every reason to accelerate its first term policy in solidifying trilateral partnerships, the miniature of multilateralism, in the East Mediterranean as a vehicle that can contribute to security, energy cooperation and economic development between regional countries. The driving force behind trilateral partnerships is that shared interests can guarantee coordination to address regional contingencies.
The Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act of 2019 has been a significant piece of legislation that was signed by President Trump that favors the trilateral partnership of Greece, Israel and Cyprus, and it is consistent with the unfolding strategy of American energy dominance. The Act acknowledges that the natural gas discoveries off the Egyptian and Cyprus’s coasts could represent a significant and positive development for the East Mediterranean and the Middle East, enhancing the region’s strategic energy significance. It also foresees the establishment of the United States-Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center to facilitate energy cooperation between the US, Greece Israel, and Cyprus.
That said, exploration and production in the East Mediterranean is critical for the solidification of American energy presence against rival emerging powers like China. In fact, American majors Chevron and Exxon participate in consortia that explore various fields or produce energy in the maritime areas of Israel, Egypt, Cyprus and Greece. The East Mediterranean currently presents approximately 2 percent of the global confirmed gas reserves. It, however, has the potential to increase its contribution to 4-5 percent, if regional energy drilling and production swiftly proceeds in a 10-to-15-year horizon. For example, seismic surveys that have been conducted in maritime areas across Greece revealed that the estimated energy resources are close to 2,600 bcm. The involvement of American Exxon and Chevron in deepwater exploration in the southern Ionian Sea and southwest of Crete marks a significant development that paves the way for gas exports of Greek energy by American majors to the Balkans and Eastern Europe.
The “Drill, baby, Drill” priority of President Trump can be complemented by the “Link, baby, Link” priority particularly in the East Mediterranean. The Great Sea and GREGY interconnectors envision to link the grids of Greece, Israel, Cyprus and Egypt, all critical American allies, aiming to enhance security of electricity supply. Additional infrastructure projects, currently under different stages of evaluation or development, that intend to link gas transportation routes of American allies in the region include but are not limited to the East Mediterranean Gas Pipeline project linking Israel to Europe via Cyprus, Greece and Italy, a new pipeline in west Syria that will be linked to the existing Arab Gas Pipeline, and a new subsea pipeline that will connect Cyprus to Egypt.
In an interconnected world where energy security is vital for economic prosperity and development of states, President Trump’s strategy for increased gas production can benefit the energy development programs of geostrategic players in the East Mediterranean, that lies at the nexus of three continents, with American majors serving as the United States’ flagship.
