As Germany headed into its crucial 2025 elections, the political landscape was marked by intense debates on both domestic and international issues. The elections were held earlier than expected, after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s centre-left coalition in November 2024. Germany’s 2025 federal election resulted in a victory for the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, which secured 208 seats with 28.52% of the vote. However, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), under Alice Weidel, made record gains, coming in second with 152 seats and 20.8% of the vote, marking a significant surge in support.
The centre-left SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, suffered losses, finishing third with 120 seats (16.41%), while the Greens, under Robert Habeck, won 85 seats (11.61%). Despite Merz’s win, the fragmented results have led to complex coalition talks, especially as the AfD and the Left now jointly hold enough seats to block constitutional changes, complicating Germany’s political landscape. Far-left and populist parties, including Die Linke and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), also had potential to influence the results, with the AfD benefiting from public dissatisfaction over issues like immigration, security, and economic struggles. The rise of the AfD has sparked concerns over the growing influence of far-right populism in Germany’s democracy.
The Importance of the 2025 Elections in Germany
The 2025 elections were among the most significant in Germany’s modern political history. The results not only determined the country’s future direction in leadership but also shaped Germany’s foreign policy, economic strategy, and domestic social issues for years to come. The collapse of the previous coalition government under Chancellor Scholz left a political vacuum, making this election critical for ensuring stability in both domestic and international affairs. As Germany grappled with issues ranging from the war in Ukraine to migration, economic reform, and its role within the European Union, the stakes were undeniably high.
The 2025 German elections were equally significant for Europe, given Germany’s central role as the EU’s largest economy and a key political leader within the bloc. The outcome has far-reaching implications for European unity, foreign policy, and economic stability. With Friedrich Merz’s conservatives advocating for greater European “independence” from the United States and the far-right AfD’s Eurosceptic stance gaining momentum, the election results could alter the balance of power within the EU. Germany’s approach to pressing issues such as the war in Ukraine, energy security, migration, and economic integration will heavily influence the EU’s collective strategy. Furthermore, the rise of the far right in Germany mirrors similar trends across Europe, raising concerns about the resilience of democratic institutions and the future of the European project.
As Europe’s largest economy and a key member of NATO and the EU, Germany plays a pivotal role on the global stage. The decisions made by its next government will significantly influence the future of Europe, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the shifting dynamics of international alliances. The 2025 election also came at a time when Germany faced significant challenges in maintaining its position within the EU and strengthening transatlantic ties.
Given the political fragmentation in the country, the elections served as a decisive moment for Germany to address its internal divisions, which have been widening over recent years. The rise of populist movements, such as the AfD and the BSW, signalled a broader shift in the political landscape, potentially altering Germany’s future trajectory. This election was not merely about selecting a new leader—it was about defining the core values and future direction Germany would adopt in an increasingly complex and volatile geopolitical environment. As global tensions escalated and shifting alliances within the European Union started to become more evident, Germany’s stance on foreign policy, economic reform, and social cohesion became even more critical. The electorate faced a choice between continuing along a path of European cooperation and liberal democracy or veering towards more nationalist and protectionist policies advocated by rising populist factions. The results signalled that Germany was at a crossroads, grappling not only with domestic challenges but also with its responsibility and influence on the broader European and global stage.
Shifting Political Landscape
Historically, German politics have been dominated by two major parties: the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), often forming coalition governments to ensure broad-based support. However, the political environment in Germany has undergone significant changes over the last decade, with the rise of smaller parties challenging the traditional dominance of the CDU and SPD.
In the past, elections were often predictable, with the CDU and SPD comfortably holding the majority of the vote. Recent years, however, have seen a surge in support for the Greens, the far-right AfD, and other populist movements. The ongoing migration crisis, economic stagnation, and dissatisfaction with the political establishment have fuelled this rise. The 2025 elections became a watershed moment for Germany, marking a dramatic shift in the political balance.
Germany’s history with the far right, marked by the rise and catastrophic impact of National Socialism, continues to cast a long shadow over its political landscape. Following the Second World War, the country undertook extensive denazification efforts to eradicate fascist ideology and rebuild a democratic society. However, the resurgence of far-right ideologies in recent years, particularly through the rise of the AfD, has raised alarm. While initially founded as a Eurosceptic party, the AfD has increasingly embraced nationalist and xenophobic rhetoric, echoing elements of Germany’s darkest past. Its normalisation of exclusionary and anti-democratic discourse risks undermining the post-war consensus built around tolerance and human rights. This revival of far-right populism not only threatens Germany’s democratic fabric but also serves as a stark reminder of how fragile democratic institutions can be when historical lessons are ignored.
The AfD’s rise has been particularly noteworthy. With its strong anti-immigration stance and nationalist rhetoric, the party capitalised on growing discontent among voters, especially in eastern Germany. This surge reflected a broader trend across Europe, where far-right parties have gained ground in response to economic and cultural anxieties. Meanwhile, the CDU, long seen as the bastion of stability and continuity, faced the challenge of reconciling its traditional conservative values with the shifting political currents. Friedrich Merz positioned himself as a defender of Germany’s international interests but contended with more populist factions within the party, increasingly influenced by the AfD’s rise.
The SPD and Greens, once dominant forces in shaping Germany’s policy agenda, faced significant setbacks in the 2025 elections as their support dwindled amid growing public dissatisfaction. Central to this decline was the fragmentation and internal discord within Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government, which struggled to maintain unity on critical policy issues. Scholz, who had been in office since 2021, faced mounting criticism for his handling of complex challenges, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, where debates over military aid and Germany’s role in the conflict created rifts within the coalition. Disagreements over migration policy further deepened the divide, as the government grappled with balancing humanitarian responsibilities against rising domestic concerns over integration and social cohesion.
Economic issues also played a pivotal role in eroding public confidence. The coalition was criticised for its handling of inflation, energy security, and labour market reforms, with many voters perceiving the government as indecisive and disconnected from the everyday struggles of ordinary Germans. The Greens, while maintaining a strong environmental platform, faced backlash over policies seen as economically burdensome, particularly amid concerns about energy costs and Germany’s transition away from fossil fuels. They also faced their own challenges, particularly balancing their pro-European Union stance with the rising populist sentiment in Germany. While their commitment to environmental sustainability and progressive policies resonated with less younger voters, it also alienated older and more conservative demographics who felt threatened by rapid changes. The 2025 election tested whether the Greens could maintain their momentum or risk being overtaken by more right-wing parties. These internal conflicts and policy missteps ultimately weakened the coalition’s ability to present a cohesive vision, leading many voters to turn towards alternative parties, including the CDU/CSU and the populist AfD, in search of stronger leadership and clearer direction.
International Issues and Their Impact on the Election
International issues played a major role in the election campaign, especially after the Munich Security Conference and the opening of US-Russia peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. The war in Ukraine became a focal point, with most political parties—excluding the AfD, Die Linke, and the BSW—voicing strong criticism of US actions aimed at ending the war without involving Ukraine or the EU. The CDU, Greens, and FDP maintained a consistent pro-Ukraine stance, calling for continued military support, including advanced weapons. In contrast, Chancellor Scholz positioned himself as a “peace chancellor,” supporting Ukraine while cautioning against further escalation with Russia.
The AfD, BSW, and Die Linke took a more pacifist approach, advocating for dialogue with Russia and opposing military aid to Ukraine. This divergence in foreign policy underscored broader concerns over the future of transatlantic cooperation, especially with Donald Trump’s return to power in the US many in Germany feared that Trump’s policies could undermine American involvement in Europe, although the CDU expressed hope that Merz could maintain constructive communication with a future Trump administration.
Migration Policy: A Divisive Issue
Migration remained one of the most contentious issues in the election. Attacks linked to migrants in several German cities intensified calls for stricter migration policies. The AfD championed hardline approaches, including turning back migrants at the border and mass deportations. The CDU advocated for reintroducing permanent border controls, despite legal challenges under EU law. Meanwhile, the SPD and Greens promoted faster asylum processing and stronger EU solidarity. The BSW suggested conducting asylum procedures outside of the EU.
The debate over migration revealed deeper societal divisions about national identity, security, and economic sustainability. While the AfD and CDU gained support for their stricter policies, the SPD and Greens argued for a more balanced approach, focusing on humanitarian responsibilities alongside pragmatic integration strategies.
The Rise of the Far-Right and Its Consequences
The AfD’s rise marked one of the most significant shifts in German politics. The party tapped into the fears and frustrations of many Germans, particularly in rural areas and former East Germany, where economic stagnation and rising inequality fuelled discontent. The AfD’s nationalist rhetoric and anti-immigration stance resonated with voters who felt left behind by globalisation and threatened by Germany’s changing demographics.
The AfD’s growing influence poses a dilemma for Germany’s centre-right parties, which must balance appealing to disillusioned right-wing voters while avoiding alienating moderates. The party’s success has broader implications for Germany’s foreign policy, with its vision of a Europe that includes Russia and marginalises the EU challenging Germany’s traditional commitment to European integration and NATO.
What Lies Ahead for Germany and Europe
Germany’s 2025 elections marked a turning point for the country and Europe as a whole. International issues, particularly the war in Ukraine and shifting transatlantic relations, played a central role in the campaign. The divide between parties advocating for continuity in foreign policy (CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP) and those pushing for a shift away from European integration (AfD, BSW, and Die Linke) became increasingly evident.
Friedrich Merz’s election as Chancellor of Germany in 2025 carries a significant symbolic weight, particularly considering his Jewish heritage, which adds an important layer to the political narrative in a country with a fraught history of anti-Semitism. His identity as someone with Jewish roots represents a shift in Germany’s political landscape, marking a notable moment for both German society and the broader European political scene. Merz’s background as a member of a prominent Jewish family might be seen as a reflection of Germany’s post-Holocaust commitment to confronting its dark past and promoting inclusion, yet it also highlights the contradictions within the political party he leads.
That said, as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Merz has championed a conservative agenda that aligns with many traditional values, such as maintaining a strong European Union, supporting transatlantic ties with the United States, and prioritising national security. However, his party, which has historically been seen as centrist or centre-right, now finds itself at a crossroads, grappling with the rise of the far-right (AfD) and the growing populist sentiment across Germany and Europe.
Merz’s leadership is marked by a delicate balance between advocating for economic liberalism and maintaining social conservatism, which sometimes clashes with the values of tolerance and inclusion that Germany seeks to uphold. The CDU’s embrace of nationalism and populism under Merz’s leadership has led to criticism from some quarters, with detractors arguing that his stance on issues like migration and EU integration contradicts the inclusive, multicultural ideals that Germany has worked hard to promote since the Second World War. His position within the CDU, as a Jewish man leading a party that now increasingly appeals to nationalist sentiments, illustrates the complexities of contemporary German politics, where personal identity and political ideology can become entangled in ways that both challenge and reinforce historical narratives.
While the results indicate a likely continuation of Germany’s foreign policy course—emphasising US cooperation, NATO involvement, and commitment to the EU—the growing influence of the AfD raised concerns about future shifts. Migration and defence policies are expected to evolve, particularly in response to US-Russia negotiations. A shift to the right in Germany’s next elections is not just a distant possibility but a very real and tangible outcome, given the rising influence of nationalist and far-right parties in the political landscape. The growing discontent among certain segments of the population, driven by concerns over immigration, economic inequality, and EU overreach, has provided fertile ground for these parties to gain support. If this trend continues, as it was evidenced in the elections this weekend, Germany could see a significant change in its domestic and foreign policies, with profound repercussions for Europe. A rightward shift could challenge the EU’s unity, fuel anti-European sentiment, and hinder collective action on critical issues. This is not a speculative scenario but a genuine risk that European leaders and citizens must consider as the political dynamics in Germany evolve.
For countries like Poland, the long-term threat of a significant rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) cannot be overstated. If the AfD becomes the second-largest political force in Germany, its vision of a restructured European security architecture, one that includes Russia and seeks to weaken the European Union, would pose a direct challenge to the interests of Central Europe. The AfD’s stance could lead to a shift in Germany’s position on key issues like NATO alliances, regional security, and the EU’s collective response to external threats. Such a move would diminish the EU’s cohesion and potentially empower Russia, undermining the efforts of countries like Poland that have worked to strengthen the EU’s Defence posture and maintain a strong deterrence against Russian aggression.
Moreover, migration and Defence policy will play a pivotal role in shaping Germany’s future trajectory within the European context. A rightward shift could signal stricter migration policies, not only reducing Germany’s willingness to accommodate refugees but also influencing EU-wide migration agreements. This could exacerbate divisions within the EU, as member states disagree on the extent of responsibility-sharing for migrants and refugees. In terms of Defence, a more isolationist Germany could weaken the EU’s ability to act collectively in a rapidly changing security environment, further complicating relations with NATO and leaving Central and Eastern European nations vulnerable to external pressures.
Germany now stands at a crucial crossroads, with its political future carrying weight far beyond its borders. The choices made by its leaders will ripple across the continent and shape the future of the European Union. A move away from the EU’s core values of cooperation, integration, and solidarity could fracture the union, allowing populist and nationalist forces to gain further ground not only in Germany but also across Europe. On the global stage, Germany’s position on issues like climate change, trade, and global security will be affected by its internal political shift, impacting its ability to influence broader geopolitical dynamics. The path that Germany chooses will determine not just the future of the European project but also its standing in a multipolar world, where strategic alliances are constantly in flux.
