Authors: Hamza Zaman & Mobeen Jafar Mir*
Since his inauguration, US President Donald Trump has repeated his demand to buy Greenland which is currently an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Donald Trump, in his telephonic exchange with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, reiterated his intention to take over Greenland. Current and former senior European officials, who were briefed on the telephone call, described Trump’s tone as aggressive and confrontational. This assertive diplomacy by Donald Trump, often indicating the use of force to seize Greenland, reflects Trump’s resolve to take over the Arctic Island.
In retrospect, Donald Trump in his election campaign maintained the Greenland issue as a focal point of his foreign policy objectives. During the election season, many political observers and commentators interpreted Trump’s stance on Greenland more as a political gimmick than a realistic project. The Danish Prime Minister has deemed such plans as absurd and preposterous in the past. However, since his return to the White House, Trump appears to be doubling down on his pre-election rhetoric. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also validated President Trump’s interest in buying Greenland and restated that this plan is ‘not a joke.’
This assertive foreign policy stance raises the question of why Donald Trump regards Greenland to be of such high priority for Washington. Donald Trump views Greenland from the strategic angle i.e. it provides the US with a prospective outpost to preempt China’s footprint in the Arctic, and subsequently the Atlantic. Greenland’s geographical position places it as the gateway into the Atlantic. The US has maintained a prominent military presence in Greenland over the decades through the Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Force Base. This helped the US oversee Soviet strategic maneuvering during the Cold War. The Trump administration attaches similar strategic function to Greenland, this time though, against China.
In the greater geopolitical designs of the US, the Trump administration considers China its top competitor. President Trump has repeatedly expressed his intention to impose tariffs on China as the means to curtail its exports and global economic footprint. Additionally, Donald Trump, in his first tenure, strengthened the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), an informal alliance of the US with its three Asia Pacific allies, namely Australia, Japan, and India, as well as military cooperation with other allies in the region to oversee China’s clout.
Taking into account this strategic imperative, the Trump administration is securitizing Greenland as essential to US interests. During Donald Trump’s first tenure, the Pentagon issued a warning about Chinese submarine presence in the Arctic. This warning amped up American strategic threat assessment as the US now considers it essential to preempt China’s prospective ingress into the region. In view of China’s growing global presence, America’s threat perception pushes it to take preemptive measures including the augmentation of its military presence in Greenland.
Donald Trump expressed these apprehensions just days before taking office. Trump, while mentioning Greenland, said, “People really don’t even know if Denmark has any legal right to it but, if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security. You have China [Chinese] ships all over the place. You have Russian ships all over the place. We’re not letting that happen.” Trump’s statement suggests that he saw Greenland as an important asset for controlling access to the Arctic, especially in light of the growing influence of China and Russia in the region. These comments also emphasize the Trump administration’s strong commitment to pursuing the Greenland project.
The US also views China’s economic footprint in the Arctic as a threat to its economic hold in the region. As mentioned in its Arctic Policy, Washington views China trying to enlarge its investments in Greenland and take part in the exploration of mineral wealth in the Arctic region. China’s interest in mining projects and natural wealth exploration is signified by the Kvanefjeld project illustrating China’s interest in ascertaining a leading role in the region’s mining ventures.
On the other hand, China views the Arctic as a region where international cooperation and sustainability should prevail, rather than unilateral actions driven by strategic or economic interests. In response to Trump’s interest in purchasing Greenland, China emphasized its commitment to peaceful, mutually beneficial cooperation with all parties. Beijing believes in respecting global governance principles, such as those outlined by the UN, and sees the region’s future as one requiring collaboration for peace and stability, rather than territorial acquisition based on resource exploitation or military strategy.
The Trump administration is politicizing Chinese economic interests in the Arctic along with exaggerating the narrative of Chinese submarines in the region. According to a White House National Security Council spokesperson, the growing investments of Beijing and Moscow in the Arctic were making Greenland crucial to the US national security. The statement reflects a broader US concern about maintaining a strong and long-term presence in the Arctic to counteract the strategic implications of these foreign investments.
Donald Trump is vocal on curtailing the growing footprint of China across the globe. His assertive stance on Greenland is associated with a similar foreign policy orientation whereby Donald Trump is determined to target China’s supply chain and counter its growing presence on a global scale. Previously in his Jan. 20 inauguration speech, he also vowed to take back the world’s second largest interoceanic waterway, the Panama Canal, ‘falsely’ claiming that it was run by China. The Panama Canal, situated in Panama, Central America, is an artificial waterway that links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans across the Isthmus of Panama.
With news of Trump expressing his strong desire to buy Greenland making rounds, and if his corporate background and a predilection for transactional diplomacy is any indication, he might try to pursue a bargain with his Danish counterpart over Greenland. A complete takeover of a territory or a monetary acquisition of a piece of land is unusual in the contemporary geopolitical landscape.
Following the tactics of a financial deal, Donald Trump is likely to persuade Denmark to extend greater military and economic leverage to the US. This is already reflected by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s openness to accommodate American strategic requirements by considering greater US military presence in Greenland. President Trump will follow this pathway as he will be more interested in a military outpost to preempt China’s presence in the Arctic rather than governing an entire territory and bearing the administrative expenses of controlling Greenland.
The resultant growing US military presence, fueled by its intensifying competition with Russia and China, is expected to transform the dynamics of the region, marking the beginning of increased naval activity in the High North. With climate change causing the region’s ice caps to melt, it will soon be more accessible to global powers for both shipping routes and resource exploration, potentially turning it into a new focal point for geopolitical and military rivalries. These developments could make the area as strategically significant, or even more, as the South China Sea currently is. Last year in June, the US Department of Defense Arctic Strategy termed the region a strategic battleground, with global and regional powers regularly conducting naval exercises and investing militarily in the region.
In conclusion, President Trump’s persistent focus on Greenland underscores the growing importance of the Arctic region in global geopolitics, particularly as competition intensifies between the US, China, and Russia. By positioning Greenland as a strategic asset for national security, the Trump administration seeks to thwart the increasing influence of China and Russia in the Arctic, particularly in terms of military presence and economic investments. While Trump’s rhetoric may have appeared as a political stunt initially, it reflects a more profound strategic concern for controlling access to vital resources and shipping routes in the Arctic. The evolving dynamics of the region, exacerbated by climate change, are poised to turn Greenland into a focal point of international rivalry, with military and economic stakes escalating in the coming years. It is important to mention that a survey conducted in 2023 revealed that 25 out of 34 minerals identified as ‘critical raw materials’ by the European Commission are located in Greenland. The US seems eager to tap into these valuable strategic minerals as the global AI chip competition intensifies.
*Mobeen Jafar Mir, Research Officer at Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad.
