The unexpected departure of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Vice-President for Strategic Affairs and a prominent reformer, marks a significant upheaval in the country’s political landscape. His choice was presumably influenced by Iran’s judiciary leader, Ghulam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who advised him to return to academia to relieve pressure on the government. This move highlights the rising tensions within Iran’s political establishment, where reformists and hardliners battle for control. Zarif, a former foreign minister, was instrumental in shaping Iran’s engagement with the West, including negotiating the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
However, his selection to President Masood Pezeshkian’s reforming cabinet was contentious from the outset. Sticklers protested his nomination, claiming that a 2022 legislation prevented it owing to his foreign links, particularly because his sons are dual Iranian-American citizens. Republicans viewed his position in government as a danger, accusing him of having too many links to foreign forces. The repercussions of Zarif’s departure go well beyond Iran’s domestic affairs. His departure greatly diminishes the possibility of resuming nuclear discussions with the United States, especially because Pezeshkian himself stated that he initially supported conversation but backed out owing to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s resistance.
With the return of former US President Donald Trump to office and the commencement of Washington’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, Zarif’s departure marks a more combative period in US-Iran relations. Political observers believe that without Zarif and other moderate leaders such as recently impeached Economy Minister Abdolnasser Hemmati, Pezeshkian’s capacity to participate in diplomatic efforts has been significantly disadvantaged. Beyond diplomacy, Zarif’s resignation is linked to Iran’s protracted economic difficulties. The country is dealing with high inflation, a plummeting national currency, and significant unhappiness among its citizens. The rail has dropped to historic lows, selling on the illegal market for more than 920,000 per US dollar, exacerbating the cost of living issue.
According to reports, one-third of Iranians earn less than $2 a day, making basic needs unaffordable for millions. Unplanned power outages have further increased popular dissatisfaction, as the country, despite its massive energy resources, struggles with infrastructure failure. These economic woes are primarily due to US sanctions, which were imposed when the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 under Trump’s presidency. Without reformist politicians like Zarif and Hemmati advocating for economic cooperation with the West, Iran’s economic prospects remain grim. Zarif’s resignation also has an impact on Iran’s overall geopolitical posture. During his time as foreign minister, he attempted to strike a delicate balance between Iran’s relations with regional allies like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and tensions with enemies such as Saudi Arabia and Israel. His diplomatic mindset, although criticized domestically, was essential in preventing large-scale wars. With hardliners consolidating their hold on foreign policy, Iran may adopt a more assertive regional approach, raising the possibility of further proxy wars and direct clashes. Zarif’s legacy remains controversial. While he played a key role in negotiating the 2015 nuclear agreement, he has also faced international criticism for maintaining Iran’s human rights breaches and maintaining stringent internal regulations, such as obligatory hijab rules. His comments justifying government crackdowns and upholding contentious national policies have made him a divisive figure in Iran and abroad. Ultimately, Zarif’s departure represents a turning point in Iran’s political and diplomatic trajectory. It represents a shift away from careful engagement with the West and toward a more hardline, confrontational strategy. As Iran’s government consolidates oversight, the country faces increased isolation, economic insecurity, and rising regional tensions. The world will now wait to see how Tehran handles this dramatic transition, with Zarif’s departure creating a position that might influence Iran’s fate for years.
